At-Large Selection

The 2016 NCAA Division I Mens Basketball Championship tournament includes 68 teams. Of these, 32 qualify automatically by winning their conference. The other 36 are selected by the committee. The committee's first step is to "select the 36 best teams to fill the at-large berths." Through a series of votes, the committee selects the best teams that do not win the automatic berth from their conference.

The Crashing the Dance at-large selection model attempts to predict which teams the committee will select by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's at-large selection decisions about those teams. The model generates a selection confidence (from 0% to 100%) for each team that essentially predicts how likely the committee is, based on their past behavior, to select that team for an at-large berth. Ranking all of the teams by their selection confidence and excluding the 32 automatic qualifiers gives us the 36 at-large selections. For convenience, we (roughly) separate the teams into three groups: those that are looking good, those that should not get comfy, and those that must win their conference.

See the selection notes for more information.

Looking good

These teams (listed by conference) should be in the field regardless of whether they are the automatic qualifier from their conference. Some of these teams will likely win their conference (the current conference leader is marked with type Q), but the model gives each of these teams essentially a 100% chance of at-large selection (projected at-large selections are marked with type L) if today were Selection Sunday. (Hint - move the mouse over the data for more information.)

Rank Conf N/C 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Duke ACC L 23-10 17 22 20 32 4 13 4 6 -1 11 2 10 12-1 3-0
Miami FL ACC L 25-7 13 13 9 7 8 18 4 7 4 16 12 14 9-3 4-0
North Carolina ACC Q 28-6 3 3 5 5 13 10 4 5 0 15 9 16 13-0 6-0
Virginia ACC L 26-7 4 5 3 4 9 2 8 9 6 16 9 15 10-0 4-0
Baylor B12 L 21-11 24 19 26 26 2 21 2 5 -6 10 -1 5 11-0 5-0
Iowa St. B12 L 21-11 21 21 23 34 1 17 2 8 -2 12 1 7 9-0 3-0
Kansas B12 Q 29-4 1 1 1 1 15 4 6 15 12 20 17 22 9-1 3-0
Oklahoma B12 L 25-7 7 8 6 11 6 5 5 10 4 14 7 15 11-0 3-0
Texas B12 L 20-12 31 25 27 20 3 61 5 7 -2 13 2 5 7-1 3-0
West Virginia B12 L 26-8 6 7 11 6 9 26 4 9 2 13 5 13 13-0 5-0
Seton Hall BE Q 25-8 28 18 19 13 9 65 3 6 3 10 2 9 15-0 8-0
Villanova BE L 29-5 5 6 4 3 15 6 4 7 2 15 10 18 14-0 6-0
Xavier BE L 27-5 14 9 7 12 10 3 3 7 4 12 8 18 15-1 4-0
Indiana B10 L 25-7 11 12 25 15 11 86 2 6 3 10 6 10 15-3 8-0
Iowa B10 L 21-10 19 20 29 24 5 62 4 5 -2 8 0 4 13-2 7-0
Maryland B10 L 24-8 20 16 15 18 6 11 1 5 -1 8 1 11 16-1 6-1
Michigan St. B10 Q 29-5 2 2 10 16 11 8 6 8 4 14 10 16 15-1 8-0
Purdue B10 L 26-8 8 11 16 17 7 20 2 4 -1 10 3 13 16-1 5-0
Arizona P12 L 25-8 12 15 24 19 6 45 1 5 -2 13 6 9 12-1 8-0
California P12 L 23-10 27 23 14 8 6 51 3 8 0 12 3 8 11-1 5-0
Oregon P12 Q 27-6 15 4 2 2 13 7 6 11 8 19 14 16 8-1 5-0
Utah P12 L 25-8 26 10 8 9 9 9 4 11 4 17 9 11 8-0 6-0
Kentucky SEC Q 26-8 10 14 12 10 11 15 3 3 1 14 9 14 12-3 4-0
Texas A&M SEC L 26-8 16 17 18 30 9 16 2 5 4 14 8 12 12-2 6-0

Don't get comfortable

These teams (ordered by at-large selection confidence or chance) still have some work to do. Some would be on the good side of the bubble if today were Selection Sunday, but there are only 36 at-large berths available and things can change quickly. Again, some of these will earn automatic qualification from their conference, but each has one or more holes in their profile. As a result, the model gives each less than a 100% chance of at-large selection.

Rank Conf N/C 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Saint Joseph's A10 Q 27-7 51 35 22 25 11 25 2 4 0 9 3 12 18-1 8-0
Dayton A10 L (19) 25-7 46 29 21 38 10 12 0 3 -2 9 4 14 16-2 5-1
Notre Dame ACC L (20) 21-11 35 26 36 37 4 60 4 5 0 8 -3 3 13-0 7-0
Wisconsin B10 L (21) 20-12 36 28 43 23 5 98 3 5 -1 10 4 5 10-6 4-1
Texas Tech B12 L (22) 19-12 45 30 35 61 -1 14 2 6 -3 8 -2 4 11-2 3-0
Oregon St. P12 L (23) 18-12 58 32 56 0 36 3 5 -3 10 0 1 8-2 5-0
Connecticut AAC Q 24-10 29 31 31 7 68 1 3 -2 8 -2 4 16-0 10-0
Colorado P12 L (24) 21-11 48 34 48 2 44 3 4 -5 8 -2 3 13-1 7-0
VCU A10 L (25) 24-10 37 37 21 11 102 1 2 -3 8 0 8 16-2 7-1
St. Bonaventure A10 L (26) 22-8 79 37 30 29 9 79 3 3 1 7 2 7 15-3 8-1
Providence BE L (27) 23-10 43 27 40 47 2 38 2 2 -5 8 1 5 15-3 8-0
Butler BE L (28) 21-10 30 32 56 62 1 47 3 4 -4 6 -3 4 15-1 7-0
USC P12 L (29) 21-12 42 48 69 0 33 1 5 -3 8 -3 2 13-1 7-0
Pittsburgh ACC L (30) 20-11 34 52 57 0 52 1 2 -5 9 0 4 11-2 5-0
Cincinnati AAC L (31) 22-10 33 37 50 44 5 75 1 4 0 7 -2 1 15-1 11-0
Saint Mary's WCC L (32) 26-5 32 24 38 55 13 24 0 2 0 6 3 3 20-2 18-0
South Carolina SEC L (33) 23-8 52 32 65 88 3 30 1 1 0 8 3 10 15-3 6-1
Vanderbilt SEC L (34) 19-13 23 64 58 3 72 2 2 -5 7 -3 1 12-3 5-0
San Diego St. MWC L (35) 23-9 47 35 41 22 15 104 1 1 -3 4 -4 10 19-1 5-1
Syracuse ACC L (36) 19-13 40 74 81 -1 57 2 5 -1 8 -2 1 11-3 6-1
Gonzaga WCC Q 25-7 22 46 39 15 83 0 2 -3 5 -1 2 20-1 16-0
Wichita St. MVC L 23-8 25 25 49 54 14 81 1 1 -2 4 -3 4 19-1 11-0
Northern Iowa MVC Q 21-12 73 37 70 75 7 66 2 4 3 8 5 3 13-9 9-3
Florida SEC L 19-14 39 54 84 0 27 2 2 -5 7 -6 0 12-1 5-0
Michigan B10 L 21-12 38 58 52 3 91 3 4 -7 4 -8 0 17-0 9-0
Tulsa AAC L 20-11 67 63 46 5 99 1 4 -1 8 0 -1 12-3 10-0
Valparaiso Horz L 24-6 49 30 53 86 13 19 0 1 0 4 2 8 20-4 10-0
Arkansas Little Rock SB Q 27-4 75 42 51 16 48 0 1 0 4 2 11 23-2 14-2
Temple AAC L 21-11 85 60 27 10 156 1 5 -1 7 -2 -2 14-2 13-1
Akron MAC L 25-8 93 33 49 9 41 0 0 -1 6 4 10 19-6 7-0
Georgia Tech ACC L 19-14 54 67 67 -2 64 1 3 -5 5 -8 -1 14-1 6-0
South Dakota St. Sum Q 24-7 86 28 40 11 35 0 0 -1 3 1 12 21-5 6-1
Yale Ivy Q 21-6 56 44 35 12 73 0 1 -3 1 -3 2 20-2 13-0
George Washington A10 L 23-10 66 69 78 4 54 2 3 -3 4 -3 3 19-3 11-1
Georgia SEC L 19-13 62 62 64 3 70 0 0 -6 6 -6 3 13-1 3-0
Alabama SEC L 18-14 83 71 104 -2 23 1 3 -3 7 -4 -1 11-3 5-0
UNC Wilmington CAA Q 23-7 89 45 28 13 134 0 0 0 4 2 8 19-5 9-1
Princeton Ivy L 21-6 70 39 53 10 40 0 1 -3 1 -4 0 20-1 15-0
Stephen F. Austin Slnd Q 23-5 57 61 45 20 178 0 0 -1 3 0 4 20-2 15-1
Monmouth MAAC L 27-7 81 51 70 15 34 0 2 0 3 -1 7 24-3 16-3
Hofstra CAA L 23-9 99 55 50 11 88 0 2 0 6 2 4 17-5 10-0
BYU WCC L 22-10 41 75 91 8 49 0 2 -3 4 -2 1 18-4 13-2
Ohio St. B10 L 20-13 60 72 43 4 140 1 2 -8 3 -7 -1 17-3 8-0
Florida St. ACC L 19-13 44 82 93 -2 59 1 3 -3 6 -6 -1 13-1 7-0
Hawaii BW Q 25-5 69 80 80 13 103 0 0 -2 7 3 6 18-1 15-1
Houston AAC L 22-9 61 84 68 5 109 1 3 0 7 1 3 15-3 12-2
Davidson A10 L 19-12 101 57 73 3 42 1 2 -5 3 -6 3 16-3 6-2

Must win conference

These teams currently have no shot at being selected at-large, so they need to win their conference. Each is the current leader of its conference, but only those in bold have clinched an automatic bid.

Rank Conf N/C 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Stony Brook AE Q 24-6 96 59 89 15 28 0 1 0 2 0 3 22-4 15-0
Florida Gulf Coast Asun Q 16-13 181 209 196 5 205 0 0 -2 0 -4 -5 16-9 13-5
Weber St. Bsky Q 23-8 136 109 95 15 144 0 1 0 1 -1 0 22-6 18-3
UNC Asheville BSth Q 20-11 140 137 133 9 147 0 0 -1 1 -1 -5 19-9 14-0
Middle Tennessee CUSA Q 22-9 116 78 90 11 76 0 0 -2 1 -3 1 21-5 12-0
Green Bay Horz Q 21-12 122 113 105 8 136 0 1 0 2 -4 -2 19-6 12-1
Iona MAAC Q 22-10 97 77 59 15 206 0 0 -2 2 -4 -3 20-4 16-1
Hampton MEAC Q 20-10 235 155 165 13 157 0 0 -3 1 -4 -5 19-5 19-4
Buffalo MAC Q 19-14 134 91 82 5 128 0 1 -6 2 -7 1 17-5 5-1
Fresno St. MWC Q 23-9 100 66 42 11 135 0 2 -1 2 -3 8 21-4 8-2
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC Q 17-14 265 203 202 7 221 0 0 -2 0 -3 -2 17-11 14-9
Austin Peay OVC Q 16-17 219 186 189 2 180 0 0 -1 1 -6 -8 15-10 12-5
Holy Cross Pat Q 14-19 268 249 258 -4 233 0 0 -1 0 -1 -5 14-18 10-10
Chattanooga SC Q 27-5 109 47 71 15 32 1 1 0 5 3 9 22-3 14-1
Southern SWAC Q 19-12 243 187 221 7 120 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 19-11 15-6
Cal St. Bakersfield WAC Q 21-8 114 116 110 11 146 0 0 -1 1 -2 -4 20-5 17-0

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 36 teams that would be selected for at-large berths in the 2016 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee. Q indicates automatic qualifiers and L signifies at-large selections.
  • The following teams are ineligible for the tournament: Abilene Christian, Alcorn St., Central Arkansas, Florida A&M, Grand Canyon, Incarnate Word, Louisville, Northern Kentucky, Pacific, SMU, Southern Miss, Stetson, UMass Lowell
  • RPI numbers may vary slightly from other published sites due to classification of certain games as neutral vs. home/road or vice versa.
  • The selections are estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • Shaded teams would be in the field if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The order should not be interpreted as the seeding order. It is only meant to predict whether teams would be at-large selections, based on how the committee has treated similar teams in the past.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • We only consider the top 105 RPI teams for at-large selection. The lowest-ranked RPI team to receive an at-large bid was #74 New Mexico in 1999 (courtesy CollegeRPI.com).