37 days 18 hours to Selection Sunday 2023

At-Large Selection

The 2023 NCAA Division I Mens Basketball Championship tournament includes 68 teams. Of these, 32 qualify automatically by winning their conference. The other 36 are selected by the committee. The committee's first step is to "select the 36 best teams to fill the at-large berths." Through a series of votes, the committee selects the best teams that do not win the automatic berth from their conference.

The Crashing the Dance at-large selection model attempts to predict which teams the committee will select by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's at-large selection decisions about those teams. The model generates a selection confidence (from 0% to 100%) for each team that essentially predicts how likely the committee is, based on their past behavior, to select that team for an at-large berth. Ranking all of the teams by their selection confidence and excluding the 32 automatic qualifiers gives us the 36 at-large selections. For convenience, we (roughly) separate the teams into three groups: those that are looking good, those that should not get comfy, and those that must win their conference.

See the selection notes for more information.

Looking good

These teams (listed by conference) should be in the field regardless of whether they are the automatic qualifier from their conference. Some of these teams will likely win their conference (the current conference leader is marked with type Q), but the model gives each of these teams essentially a 100% chance of at-large selection (projected at-large selections are marked with type L) if today were Selection Sunday. (Hint - move the mouse over the data for more information.)

Rank Conf Sparklines Q1 Q12 Q123 Q34 Q4
Conf Type W-L NET Sag. Pom. BPI SOR +/- W +/- W +/- +/-
Houston AAC Q 20-2 1 1 1 1 5 7 4 3 9 8 9 11-1 9-0
Miami FL ACC L 17-5 40 37 36 39 21 4 4 0 6 2 6 11-1 6-0
Virginia ACC Q 17-3 14 18 13 11 7 7 3 0 7 4 8 10-0 6-0
Baylor B12 L 16-6 15 13 15 8 10 1 7 1 9 3 3 7-0 7-0
Iowa St. B12 L 15-6 13 24 18 21 17 3 6 0 8 2 3 7-0 6-0
Kansas B12 L 18-4 7 6 9 10 3 3 9 5 13 9 11 5-0 3-0
Kansas St. B12 L 18-4 19 27 24 35 8 3 5 2 8 4 8 10-0 6-0
TCU B12 L 17-5 16 15 16 20 15 3 6 2 9 5 5 8-1 8-1
Texas B12 Q 18-4 9 8 10 5 6 5 7 3 9 5 8 9-0 6-0
Connecticut BE L 17-6 8 7 6 6 18 0 4 -1 7 2 5 10-1 6-0
Marquette BE Q 18-5 11 12 8 15 14 8 4 1 8 4 7 10-1 6-0
Xavier BE L 18-5 26 21 23 29 11 8 6 2 11 7 6 7-1 7-0
Iowa B10 L 14-8 32 20 33 27 40 1 5 0 8 2 2 6-2 5-1
Purdue B10 Q 22-1 3 4 3 7 1 10 7 6 12 11 16 10-0 5-0
Rutgers B10 L 15-7 20 17 14 12 39 3 4 0 7 1 1 8-1 7-0
Arizona P12 L 19-3 10 9 12 13 4 5 7 5 10 7 10 9-0 6-0
UCLA P12 Q 17-4 5 5 4 4 12 6 4 0 10 6 8 7-0 5-0
Alabama SEC Q 19-3 4 3 5 3 2 9 6 3 11 8 12 8-0 4-0
Tennessee SEC L 18-4 2 2 2 2 9 5 4 2 7 3 8 11-0 6-0
Gonzaga WCC L 17-4 12 14 17 14 13 6 3 0 8 5 7 9-1 6-0

Don't get comfortable

These teams (ordered by at-large selection confidence or chance) still have some work to do. Some would be on the good side of the bubble if today were Selection Sunday, but there are only 36 at-large berths available and things can change quickly. Again, some of these will earn automatic qualification from their conference, but each has one or more holes in their profile. As a result, the model gives each less than a 100% chance of at-large selection.

Rank Conf Sparklines Q1 Q12 Q123 Q34 Q4
Conf Type W-L NET Sag. Pom. BPI SOR +/- W +/- W +/- +/-
Saint Mary's WCC Q 18-4 6 10 7 18 37 8 1 0 6 4 10 12-2 4-0
San Diego St. MWC Q 16-5 27 36 29 31 24 6 2 -2 6 1 10 10-0 1-0
Duke ACC L (14) 16-6 22 30 30 24 30 3 3 -3 6 0 2 10-0 8-0
Illinois B10 L (15) 16-6 25 16 22 23 28 3 3 -2 6 0 4 10-0 6-0
Providence BE L (16) 17-6 36 25 28 33 20 6 3 -2 5 -1 3 12-0 8-0
Indiana B10 L (17) 15-7 23 19 21 16 29 1 3 -3 5 -2 2 10-0 6-0
Maryland B10 L (18) 15-7 33 23 31 28 33 1 4 -1 5 -2 1 10-0 7-0
Florida Atlantic CUSA Q 19-1 18 55 39 49 16 11 2 2 4 3 9 15-0 9-0
Auburn SEC L (19) 17-5 30 26 26 26 22 5 2 -1 7 2 8 10-0 4-0
West Virginia B12 L (20) 13-9 24 32 19 25 43 -5 5 -4 6 -3 -2 7-0 6-0
Missouri SEC L (21) 17-5 46 51 50 54 19 1 3 -2 7 2 5 10-0 7-0
Creighton BE L (22) 14-8 17 11 11 9 49 5 2 -3 6 -1 1 8-1 5-0
Boise St. MWC L (23) 17-5 21 34 25 36 36 6 2 0 7 3 8 10-1 5-1
Michigan St. B10 L (24) 14-8 47 38 42 52 31 1 3 -3 6 -1 2 8-1 4-0
N.C. State ACC L (25) 18-5 38 43 43 44 26 4 3 -1 5 0 4 13-0 9-0
Arkansas SEC L (26) 15-7 28 22 20 17 42 -1 1 -4 5 -1 4 10-1 4-0
New Mexico MWC L (27) 18-4 37 60 53 68 27 2 3 1 4 1 8 14-1 6-0
Memphis AAC L (28) 17-5 42 40 37 41 23 5 1 -1 6 1 6 11-0 6-0
North Carolina ACC L (29) 15-7 43 28 34 32 25 3 1 -5 6 -1 2 9-0 6-0
USC P12 L (30) 15-6 55 35 45 55 34 4 3 -1 7 2 5 8-1 4-0
Kentucky SEC L (31) 15-7 35 29 35 22 44 3 1 -5 5 -1 3 10-1 6-1
Utah St. MWC L (32) 17-5 31 58 40 62 46 4 0 -3 6 3 11 11-2 3-2
Nevada MWC L (33) 16-6 34 64 51 60 35 4 2 -3 7 1 6 9-0 4-0
Northwestern B10 L (34) 15-6 49 45 54 46 38 2 4 0 5 -1 0 10-0 9-0
Pittsburgh ACC L (35) 16-7 59 54 62 70 57 6 4 2 8 2 3 8-1 7-1
Clemson ACC L (36) 18-5 63 57 68 56 41 8 3 1 7 5 8 11-3 7-2
Oklahoma St. B12 L 13-9 39 31 32 34 58 -1 3 -3 5 -3 -1 8-1 5-0
Texas A&M SEC L 15-7 48 44 41 30 59 5 2 -2 4 -1 1 11-2 8-1
Penn St. B10 L 14-8 56 52 48 48 53 -1 2 -2 4 -4 1 10-0 5-0
Arizona St. P12 L 15-7 65 66 65 65 51 1 3 0 6 0 4 9-1 5-1
Seton Hall BE L 13-9 53 41 47 57 55 2 3 -2 5 -3 -1 8-1 5-0
Oklahoma B12 L 12-10 58 49 46 42 47 -5 4 -3 6 -4 -2 6-0 4-0
Mississippi St. SEC L 14-8 51 50 52 43 52 -5 3 -2 3 -5 -2 11-0 8-0
Charleston CAA Q 20-2 61 81 77 76 32 8 0 -1 3 2 4 17-1 14-0
Sam Houston St. WAC L 13-5 52 94 66 38 54 4 2 0 2 -2 2 11-1 6-0
Utah P12 L 15-8 50 48 49 53 65 4 2 -2 4 -4 -2 11-0 9-0
Ohio St. B10 L 11-10 29 33 27 19 68 -4 2 -6 5 -4 -4 6-1 6-1
Oregon P12 L 13-9 57 42 56 47 70 3 2 -3 7 0 0 6-2 4-0
Virginia Tech ACC L 13-9 54 53 55 45 72 -5 2 -3 5 -3 -2 8-1 6-0
Wisconsin B10 L 12-8 77 63 70 69 45 -2 2 -4 6 -2 -1 6-0 5-0
UNLV MWC L 14-7 69 83 76 74 78 -2 1 -2 6 2 2 8-3 5-0
Florida SEC L 13-9 41 39 38 40 66 3 2 -5 3 -6 -1 10-0 5-0
Liberty Asun Q 15-5 45 69 44 37 74 8 0 -3 1 -3 -1 14-1 11-0

Must win conference

These teams currently have no shot at being selected at-large, so they need to win their conference. Each is the current leader of its conference, but only those in bold have clinched an automatic bid.

Rank Conf Sparklines Q1 Q12 Q123 Q34 Q4
Conf Type W-L NET Sag. Pom. BPI SOR +/- W +/- W +/- +/-
Vermont AE Q 11-10 145 138 135 130 150 4 0 -2 1 -3 -6 10-6 8-1
Saint Louis A10 Q 14-7 87 77 85 81 67 5 1 -2 2 -3 2 12-2 6-1
Eastern Washington Bsky Q 15-7 136 150 149 142 105 10 0 -1 1 -4 -4 14-2 12-0
UNC Asheville BSth Q 15-6 164 183 179 162 92 8 1 -1 1 -1 -1 14-4 12-2
UC Santa Barbara BW Q 15-3 84 92 91 106 63 7 0 0 2 1 3 13-2 10-1
Youngstown St. Horz Q 15-6 112 142 119 110 133 6 0 0 0 0 -1 15-6 11-1
Princeton Ivy Q 12-6 107 113 112 116 114 3 0 0 1 -1 0 11-4 7-1
Siena MAAC Q 15-7 142 153 144 159 126 7 0 0 2 2 3 13-7 9-4
Howard MEAC Q 11-10 247 257 240 268 206 5 0 -1 0 -3 -5 11-7 8-2
Kent St. MAC Q 16-4 60 76 69 79 48 7 0 -3 0 -3 4 16-1 9-1
Belmont MVC Q 15-8 127 115 128 133 107 5 1 1 2 0 0 13-6 8-1
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC Q 12-10 295 313 310 294 259 5 0 -1 0 -1 -3 12-9 11-6
Southeast Missouri St. OVC Q 10-11 232 243 244 251 234 4 0 -3 0 -3 -7 10-8 9-3
Colgate Pat Q 16-7 105 140 115 109 124 11 0 -1 1 0 -3 15-6 13-1
Furman SC Q 15-6 92 75 87 99 99 7 0 -1 1 -1 4 14-4 7-2
Southeastern Louisiana Slnd Q 10-9 246 282 263 284 185 5 0 -2 0 -4 -5 10-5 8-2
Oral Roberts Sum Q 16-4 44 61 57 82 50 11 0 -4 1 -3 -1 15-0 13-0
Louisiana SB Q 15-4 93 99 99 102 61 6 0 -1 1 -1 5 14-2 7-1
Southern SWAC Q 10-10 205 225 226 203 186 7 0 -5 0 -6 -7 10-4 10-3
Utah Valley WAC Q 14-6 82 107 90 107 62 6 1 -2 4 0 1 10-2 8-1

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 36 teams that would be selected for at-large berths in the 2023 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee. Q indicates automatic qualifiers and L signifies at-large selections.
  • The following teams are ineligible for the tournament: Bellarmine, Lindenwood, Merrimack, Queens, Southern Indiana, St. Thomas, Stonehill, Tarleton St., Texas A&M Commerce, UC San Diego, Utah Tech
  • The selections are estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • Shaded teams would be in the field if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The order should not be interpreted as the seeding order. It is only meant to predict whether teams would be at-large selections, based on how the committee has treated similar teams in the past.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • We only consider the top 105 RPI/NET teams for at-large selection. The lowest-ranked RPI/NET team to receive an at-large bid was #74 New Mexico in 1999 (courtesy CollegeRPI.com).