Selection Sunday 2019 is here!

At-Large Selection

The 2019 NCAA Division I Mens Basketball Championship tournament includes 68 teams. Of these, 32 qualify automatically by winning their conference. The other 36 are selected by the committee. The committee's first step is to "select the 36 best teams to fill the at-large berths." Through a series of votes, the committee selects the best teams that do not win the automatic berth from their conference.

The Crashing the Dance at-large selection model attempts to predict which teams the committee will select by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's at-large selection decisions about those teams. The model generates a selection confidence (from 0% to 100%) for each team that essentially predicts how likely the committee is, based on their past behavior, to select that team for an at-large berth. Ranking all of the teams by their selection confidence and excluding the 32 automatic qualifiers gives us the 36 at-large selections. For convenience, we (roughly) separate the teams into three groups: those that are looking good, those that should not get comfy, and those that must win their conference.

See the selection notes for more information.

Looking good

These teams (listed by conference) should be in the field regardless of whether they are the automatic qualifier from their conference. Some of these teams will likely win their conference (the current conference leader is marked with type Q), but the model gives each of these teams essentially a 100% chance of at-large selection (projected at-large selections are marked with type L) if today were Selection Sunday. (Hint - move the mouse over the data for more information.)

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Cincinnati AAC Q 27-6 30 23 15 10 12 56 1 4 0 10 5 16 17-1 6-1
Houston AAC L 31-2 17 10 5 6 16 7 4 9 7 12 10 21 19-0 8-0
UCF AAC L 23-8 40 26 23 18 7 57 2 4 -1 8 2 11 15-2 4-0
Duke ACC Q 29-5 1 5 1 2 13 2 8 12 7 17 12 22 12-0 2-0
Florida St. ACC L 27-7 13 13 12 15 9 9 3 7 2 12 7 16 15-2 4-0
North Carolina ACC L 27-6 3 3 4 3 14 12 5 11 6 14 8 18 13-0 3-0
Virginia ACC L 29-3 2 2 3 1 14 8 3 10 7 16 13 20 13-0 6-0
Virginia Tech ACC L 24-8 12 15 27 24 6 24 3 4 -2 6 -2 11 18-0 5-0
Iowa St. B12 Q 23-11 15 34 32 29 3 29 5 7 4 12 3 9 11-2 3-0
Kansas B12 L 25-9 14 18 2 21 7 1 6 10 3 17 9 15 8-1 1-0
Kansas St. B12 L 25-8 19 14 17 14 10 47 2 6 1 13 7 13 12-2 4-0
Texas Tech B12 L 26-6 9 6 19 17 9 28 2 6 2 12 7 15 14-1 5-0
Marquette BE L 24-9 23 22 31 30 6 23 3 6 2 15 6 9 9-0 6-0
Seton Hall BE L 20-13 49 35 40 45 1 59 2 5 1 13 2 3 7-2 4-0
Villanova BE Q 25-9 18 25 14 13 11 52 1 5 1 16 8 12 9-1 4-0
Maryland B10 L 22-10 28 21 29 26 5 41 1 4 -3 14 5 8 8-1 4-0
Michigan B10 L 28-5 8 11 11 11 12 14 3 9 6 17 12 17 11-0 6-0
Michigan St. B10 Q 27-6 4 7 10 5 14 35 3 7 4 17 12 18 10-1 3-0
Purdue B10 L 23-9 10 12 16 9 11 78 1 6 -1 15 7 11 8-1 3-0
Wisconsin B10 L 23-10 16 19 26 22 8 43 1 4 -4 13 3 9 10-0 4-0
Buffalo MAC Q 30-3 25 16 9 12 17 10 0 3 2 8 6 22 22-1 5-0
Auburn SEC Q 24-9 11 24 22 27 7 15 3 4 -1 11 2 11 13-0 4-0
Kentucky SEC L 27-6 7 4 8 8 12 13 7 9 4 14 8 15 13-0 6-0
LSU SEC L 25-6 20 9 13 19 13 22 4 7 5 13 9 15 12-2 4-0
Mississippi St. SEC L 23-10 21 27 25 40 2 3 3 4 -3 11 1 9 12-0 4-0
Tennessee SEC L 28-4 6 8 6 4 14 16 5 7 3 13 9 19 15-0 5-0
Gonzaga WCC L 30-3 5 1 7 7 16 11 2 4 1 11 8 23 19-0 4-0

Don't get comfortable

These teams (ordered by at-large selection confidence or chance) still have some work to do. Some would be on the good side of the bubble if today were Selection Sunday, but there are only 36 at-large berths available and things can change quickly. Again, some of these will earn automatic qualification from their conference, but each has one or more holes in their profile. As a result, the model gives each less than a 100% chance of at-large selection.

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Wofford SC Q 26-4 34 20 21 16 21 108 0 3 -1 9 5 7 17-0 15-0
Louisville ACC L (21) 20-13 22 35 33 34 2 33 2 4 -6 9 -2 3 11-2 4-0
VCU A10 L (22) 25-6 51 28 18 31 13 6 0 1 -1 8 4 11 17-2 8-0
Nevada MWC L (23) 29-4 24 17 20 35 12 4 0 2 1 4 1 13 25-1 12-0
Arizona St. P12 L (24) 22-10 52 31 44 51 6 42 3 5 2 6 2 10 16-6 4-2
Minnesota B10 L (25) 21-13 43 41 57 -1 19 3 4 -4 9 -1 5 12-3 3-0
Saint Mary's WCC Q 22-11 38 35 20 8 104 1 2 -4 9 -1 6 13-1 5-0
Washington P12 L (26) 26-8 50 31 24 23 13 32 0 1 -6 6 -1 14 20-1 5-1
Baylor B12 L (27) 19-13 44 38 58 38 1 127 1 6 0 9 -1 3 10-3 4-1
Utah St. MWC Q 27-6 45 29 28 32 15 18 1 2 -1 6 1 8 21-1 13-0
Syracuse ACC L (28) 20-13 33 37 37 2 64 1 2 -6 7 -4 5 13-2 2-0
Oregon P12 Q 23-12 32 45 47 6 66 2 5 2 6 0 3 17-6 8-0
Iowa B10 L (29) 22-11 42 52 65 0 30 1 3 -5 8 -2 6 14-1 5-0
St. John's BE L (30) 21-12 65 57 83 -2 26 2 5 1 10 0 2 11-2 7-0
Creighton BE L (31) 17-14 48 63 70 -1 62 0 2 -5 11 -3 0 6-0 3-0
Temple AAC L (32) 23-9 68 34 25 7 81 2 4 -2 5 -2 5 18-2 9-0
Oklahoma B12 L (33) 19-13 31 38 113 -5 5 2 2 -6 9 -2 5 10-2 1-0
TCU B12 L (34) 20-13 39 51 92 -4 20 0 2 -7 7 -4 5 13-2 2-0
Alabama SEC L (35) 18-15 55 54 74 -2 49 2 3 -6 9 -3 -2 9-3 5-0
Mississippi SEC L (36) 20-12 46 66 60 1 79 3 3 -3 5 -6 1 15-1 7-0
Florida SEC L 19-15 27 56 43 1 112 2 2 -9 5 -9 -2 14-1 6-0
Memphis AAC L 21-12 61 50 41 5 101 2 4 -5 6 -3 -1 15-3 10-0
Clemson ACC L 19-13 29 61 64 -1 71 0 2 -6 5 -7 2 14-1 4-0
Ohio St. B10 L 19-14 41 72 99 -4 36 1 2 -8 9 -2 0 10-3 5-0
Belmont OVC L 25-5 60 43 71 14 17 0 1 -1 4 2 4 21-3 16-0
Davidson A10 L 23-9 76 46 50 10 63 1 1 -2 5 0 7 18-4 9-2
Murray St. OVC Q 25-4 56 33 36 48 16 39 0 1 -1 1 -2 4 24-1 17-0
New Mexico St. WAC Q 28-4 54 39 28 17 97 0 0 -2 2 -1 11 26-1 14-1
UNC Greensboro SC L 26-6 90 30 33 13 21 0 0 -5 5 -1 5 21-0 15-0
Toledo MAC L 24-7 72 42 59 7 25 0 0 -2 3 0 9 21-4 8-0
Furman SC L 22-7 75 53 77 8 38 1 2 -3 3 -3 -1 19-1 16-0
Xavier BE L 18-15 57 80 53 0 141 1 2 -6 9 -4 -2 9-2 5-0
Northeastern CAA Q 21-9 94 55 63 12 67 0 1 -3 5 -1 1 16-3 13-2
BYU WCC L 19-13 89 67 42 5 130 0 2 -4 5 -5 0 14-3 7-1
Vermont AE Q 26-6 85 62 101 15 31 0 2 0 3 -1 4 23-2 16-0
UC Irvine BW Q 29-5 84 38 64 75 17 68 0 1 -1 2 -1 8 27-2 17-1
Wichita St. AAC L 19-14 88 73 62 3 111 1 2 -8 5 -6 -3 14-3 8-0
Dayton A10 L 21-11 71 74 56 7 131 0 1 -5 4 -4 -1 17-3 11-0

Must win conference

These teams currently have no shot at being selected at-large, so they need to win their conference. Each is the current leader of its conference, but only those in bold have clinched an automatic bid.

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Saint Louis A10 Q 22-12 102 85 81 5 99 0 2 -2 5 0 -1 17-7 12-1
Liberty Asun Q 25-6 110 37 84 68 15 126 0 1 1 4 1 4 21-3 16-1
Montana Bsky Q 24-8 131 78 91 15 70 0 1 1 1 -2 1 23-5 17-2
Gardner Webb BSth Q 20-11 178 132 131 8 154 0 0 -2 1 -3 -1 19-7 15-5
Old Dominion CUSA Q 26-8 111 60 46 11 114 1 2 2 6 4 6 20-6 12-0
Northern Kentucky Horz Q 24-8 109 94 108 11 77 0 0 -2 0 -2 5 24-6 16-5
Yale Ivy Q 20-7 100 48 55 7 54 0 0 -4 0 -5 5 20-2 9-1
Iona MAAC Q 17-15 188 192 150 9 296 0 0 -2 0 -3 -4 17-12 14-8
North Carolina Central MEAC Q 15-15 297 276 251 7 333 0 0 -1 0 -4 -5 15-11 15-10
Bradley MVC Q 19-14 157 159 141 3 204 0 0 0 1 -2 2 18-11 7-4
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC Q 18-13 217 194 158 9 285 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 18-12 15-7
Colgate Pat Q 23-10 137 88 76 11 119 0 0 -1 2 -1 1 21-7 16-4
Abilene Christian Slnd Q 23-6 163 124 153 12 89 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 23-5 21-2
North Dakota St. Sum Q 16-15 193 171 184 5 169 0 0 -3 0 -6 -7 16-9 12-4
Georgia St. SB Q 22-9 114 47 49 9 65 0 0 -1 4 0 5 18-5 10-2
Prairie View A&M SWAC Q 21-12 232 140 126 19 253 0 0 -2 0 -3 -6 21-9 18-3

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 36 teams that would be selected for at-large berths in the 2019 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee. Q indicates automatic qualifiers and L signifies at-large selections.
  • The following teams are ineligible for the tournament: Alabama A&M, Cal Baptist, North Alabama
  • RPI numbers may vary slightly from other published sites due to classification of certain games as neutral vs. home/road or vice versa.
  • The selections are estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • Shaded teams would be in the field if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The order should not be interpreted as the seeding order. It is only meant to predict whether teams would be at-large selections, based on how the committee has treated similar teams in the past.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • We only consider the top 105 RPI teams for at-large selection. The lowest-ranked RPI team to receive an at-large bid was #74 New Mexico in 1999 (courtesy CollegeRPI.com).