Selection Sunday 2023 is here!

At-Large Selection

The 2023 NCAA Division I Mens Basketball Championship tournament includes 68 teams. Of these, 32 qualify automatically by winning their conference. The other 36 are selected by the committee. The committee's first step is to "select the 36 best teams to fill the at-large berths." Through a series of votes, the committee selects the best teams that do not win the automatic berth from their conference.

The Crashing the Dance at-large selection model attempts to predict which teams the committee will select by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's at-large selection decisions about those teams. The model generates a selection confidence (from 0% to 100%) for each team that essentially predicts how likely the committee is, based on their past behavior, to select that team for an at-large berth. Ranking all of the teams by their selection confidence and excluding the 32 automatic qualifiers gives us the 36 at-large selections. For convenience, we (roughly) separate the teams into three groups: those that are looking good, those that should not get comfy, and those that must win their conference.

See the selection notes for more information.

Looking good

These teams (listed by conference) should be in the field regardless of whether they are the automatic qualifier from their conference. Some of these teams will likely win their conference (the current conference leader is marked with type Q), but the model gives each of these teams essentially a 100% chance of at-large selection (projected at-large selections are marked with type L) if today were Selection Sunday. (Hint - move the mouse over the data for more information.)

Rank Conf Sparklines Q1 Q12 Q123 Q34 Q4
Conf Type W-L NET Sag. Pom. BPI SOR +/- W +/- W +/- +/-
Houston AAC L 31-2 1 1 1 1 4 18 7 6 15 14 20 16-1 9-0
Memphis AAC Q 25-8 29 31 28 31 22 10 3 -1 12 5 11 13-1 6-0
Duke ACC Q 26-8 16 14 21 17 16 11 5 -1 12 4 8 14-0 10-0
Miami FL ACC L 25-7 35 36 39 36 19 10 5 0 11 6 12 14-2 7-1
Virginia ACC L 25-7 26 23 34 22 17 11 5 0 11 5 9 14-1 9-0
Baylor B12 L 22-10 15 12 15 12 10 3 11 1 15 5 5 7-0 7-0
Iowa St. B12 L 19-13 20 32 23 25 26 0 10 -1 12 -1 0 7-0 6-0
Kansas B12 L 27-7 9 4 9 9 1 9 17 10 21 14 17 6-0 3-0
Kansas St. B12 L 23-9 23 25 24 29 14 3 9 1 13 4 7 10-0 7-0
TCU B12 L 21-12 28 20 26 28 24 0 8 -3 13 2 2 8-1 8-1
Texas B12 Q 26-8 7 7 7 5 6 9 14 6 18 10 11 8-0 7-0
West Virginia B12 L 19-14 24 21 17 23 30 -4 6 -7 12 -2 -1 7-0 6-0
Connecticut BE L 25-8 8 6 4 6 12 6 6 0 12 5 9 13-1 8-0
Creighton BE L 21-12 17 11 13 11 31 8 3 -5 9 -2 3 12-1 6-0
Marquette BE Q 28-6 12 15 12 13 7 17 7 2 13 8 14 15-1 8-0
Xavier BE L 25-9 22 13 16 21 11 11 8 2 13 6 8 12-2 8-0
Indiana B10 L 22-11 30 16 30 18 20 4 6 -3 12 1 5 10-0 6-0
Michigan St. B10 L 19-12 33 28 32 37 25 2 5 -4 12 1 3 7-1 4-0
Northwestern B10 L 21-11 41 40 42 41 29 3 7 1 11 0 1 10-0 9-0
Penn St. B10 L 22-12 49 45 43 49 27 3 7 1 12 1 4 10-1 6-0
Purdue B10 Q 28-5 5 10 5 7 3 12 9 5 18 13 18 10-0 5-0
Boise St. MWC L 23-9 27 56 31 47 39 8 3 -2 12 5 9 11-2 5-0
San Diego St. MWC Q 26-6 14 30 14 24 13 15 5 0 11 5 18 15-0 2-0
Arizona P12 Q 28-6 10 8 10 10 8 11 9 7 16 10 15 12-0 7-0
UCLA P12 L 29-5 3 2 2 4 5 17 8 3 17 12 17 12-0 7-0
Alabama SEC Q 28-5 2 3 3 3 2 16 12 7 18 13 20 10-0 3-0
Arkansas SEC L 20-13 21 22 20 14 42 -2 4 -6 8 -4 5 12-1 2-0
Kentucky SEC L 21-11 25 19 27 16 28 5 6 -1 12 4 5 9-3 6-1
Missouri SEC L 24-9 42 51 51 59 15 4 6 -3 10 1 7 14-0 8-0
Tennessee SEC L 23-10 4 9 6 2 23 4 7 0 10 0 6 13-0 7-0
Texas A&M SEC L 25-8 18 18 19 15 18 14 7 2 12 6 12 13-2 7-2
Gonzaga WCC Q 27-5 6 5 8 8 9 14 6 2 11 7 14 16-1 8-0
Saint Mary's WCC L 25-7 11 17 11 19 32 12 2 -1 9 4 13 16-2 5-0

Don't get comfortable

These teams (ordered by at-large selection confidence or chance) still have some work to do. Some would be on the good side of the bubble if today were Selection Sunday, but there are only 36 at-large berths available and things can change quickly. Again, some of these will earn automatic qualification from their conference, but each has one or more holes in their profile. As a result, the model gives each less than a 100% chance of at-large selection.

Rank Conf Sparklines Q1 Q12 Q123 Q34 Q4
Conf Type W-L NET Sag. Pom. BPI SOR +/- W +/- W +/- +/-
Florida Atlantic CUSA Q 29-3 13 50 25 35 21 19 2 1 6 3 14 23-0 12-0
Auburn SEC L (25) 20-12 32 27 29 27 33 1 3 -7 9 -2 5 11-1 3-0
Utah St. MWC L (26) 25-8 19 33 18 42 34 9 2 -3 11 5 18 14-2 1-2
Iowa B10 L (27) 19-13 39 29 37 32 46 1 4 -3 13 3 2 6-3 5-1
USC P12 L (28) 22-10 50 37 36 54 38 7 3 -3 10 2 7 12-2 6-1
Maryland B10 L (29) 21-12 31 24 22 20 35 2 3 -7 9 -3 0 12-0 9-0
Mississippi St. SEC L (30) 21-12 48 54 49 44 41 -2 4 -4 8 -3 1 13-1 8-0
Illinois B10 L (31) 20-12 34 26 33 30 37 1 2 -9 9 -3 1 11-0 7-0
Arizona St. P12 L (32) 22-12 66 66 68 75 47 3 5 -1 9 -2 3 13-1 8-1
Oklahoma St. B12 L (33) 18-15 43 43 38 33 44 -2 6 -6 10 -4 -2 8-1 5-0
Rutgers B10 L (34) 19-14 40 39 35 26 57 0 4 -3 10 0 -2 9-4 7-0
N.C. State ACC L (35) 23-10 45 46 55 46 40 4 1 -5 8 -2 3 15-0 10-0
Nevada MWC L (36) 21-10 37 85 41 69 53 5 4 -1 7 -1 8 14-2 3-0
Clemson ACC L 23-10 60 49 64 52 54 8 4 0 7 1 6 16-4 9-2
Providence BE L 21-11 55 38 44 39 45 5 3 -5 6 -4 -1 15-1 11-0
Vanderbilt SEC L 20-14 81 58 80 79 48 5 5 -6 10 -1 2 10-3 5-1
North Carolina ACC L 20-13 46 34 47 38 52 2 1 -8 7 -6 1 13-0 6-0
North Texas CUSA L 24-7 38 63 45 72 58 12 1 -2 4 -1 9 20-2 9-1
VCU A10 Q 26-7 58 52 67 61 51 14 1 0 4 -1 11 22-2 10-2
Pittsburgh ACC L 22-11 67 60 78 67 56 8 4 0 7 -2 2 15-2 10-1
Drake MVC Q 26-7 54 57 66 55 60 13 1 0 4 0 7 22-3 12-0
Charleston CAA Q 30-3 51 70 74 63 36 17 0 -1 2 1 11 28-2 16-0
Oregon P12 L 19-14 47 48 40 48 62 4 2 -7 9 -4 0 10-1 5-0
Wisconsin B10 L 17-14 80 59 77 70 50 -3 5 -2 11 -2 -2 6-1 5-0
New Mexico MWC L 21-11 53 86 52 80 77 -2 3 -2 6 -1 6 15-4 5-1
Oral Roberts Sum Q 26-4 36 75 56 84 43 21 0 -4 1 -3 3 25-0 19-0
Kent St. MAC Q 26-6 57 76 71 74 49 15 0 -3 2 -2 8 24-2 13-1
Bradley MVC L 24-9 71 80 86 66 66 13 0 -5 4 -3 1 20-2 14-0
Sam Houston St. WAC L 21-7 65 95 69 43 55 10 1 -2 2 -2 6 19-3 9-1
San Jose St. MWC L 19-13 95 113 93 120 86 2 3 -5 6 -4 0 13-3 6-0
Virginia Tech ACC L 19-14 77 71 81 65 85 -4 4 -2 7 -4 -2 12-3 8-1

Must win conference

These teams currently have no shot at being selected at-large, so they need to win their conference. Each is the current leader of its conference, but only those in bold have clinched an automatic bid.

Rank Conf Sparklines Q1 Q12 Q123 Q34 Q4
Conf Type W-L NET Sag. Pom. BPI SOR +/- W +/- W +/- +/-
Vermont AE Q 22-10 109 105 112 96 104 15 0 -3 1 -5 -3 21-4 16-1
Kennesaw St. Asun Q 23-8 114 148 127 134 75 15 0 -4 2 -2 4 21-4 13-2
Montana St. Bsky Q 23-9 103 132 110 108 99 15 0 -2 2 -1 0 21-6 15-1
UNC Asheville BSth Q 25-7 140 154 146 136 82 17 1 -1 1 -1 1 24-5 20-3
UC Santa Barbara BW Q 25-7 100 110 102 124 90 13 0 0 3 2 6 22-6 13-1
Northern Kentucky Horz Q 20-12 154 158 161 148 136 11 0 -2 1 -4 -3 19-7 14-3
Princeton Ivy Q 18-8 116 118 116 117 106 7 0 -1 1 -2 3 17-5 9-2
Iona MAAC Q 27-7 59 83 75 53 81 17 0 -1 0 -3 2 27-4 20-2
Howard MEAC Q 19-12 214 224 215 224 166 11 0 -3 0 -3 -5 19-9 15-3
Fairleigh Dickinson NEC Q 15-14 307 307 312 290 283 4 0 -1 0 -1 -2 15-13 14-11
Southeast Missouri St. OVC Q 17-16 242 256 257 256 254 6 0 -3 0 -3 -5 17-13 15-9
Colgate Pat Q 25-8 101 107 113 98 110 19 0 -1 1 0 -3 24-7 22-2
Furman SC Q 24-7 88 79 89 92 88 15 0 -2 1 -1 5 23-5 14-2
Texas A&M Corpus Chris Slnd Q 19-10 174 199 170 211 179 12 0 -3 0 -3 -3 19-7 18-6
Louisiana SB Q 23-7 89 98 92 99 67 11 0 -2 1 -4 5 22-2 12-1
Texas Southern SWAC Q 12-20 292 292 285 293 299 -1 0 -4 1 -6 -7 11-13 10-11
Grand Canyon WAC Q 21-11 104 121 109 93 105 7 1 -1 3 0 1 18-8 10-1

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 36 teams that would be selected for at-large berths in the 2023 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee. Q indicates automatic qualifiers and L signifies at-large selections.
  • The following teams are ineligible for the tournament: Bellarmine, Lindenwood, Merrimack, Queens, Southern Indiana, St. Thomas, Stonehill, Tarleton St., Texas A&M Commerce, UC San Diego, Utah Tech
  • The selections are estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • Shaded teams would be in the field if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The order should not be interpreted as the seeding order. It is only meant to predict whether teams would be at-large selections, based on how the committee has treated similar teams in the past.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • We only consider the top 105 RPI/NET teams for at-large selection. The lowest-ranked RPI/NET team to receive an at-large bid was #74 New Mexico in 1999 (courtesy CollegeRPI.com).