17 days 3 hours to Selection Sunday 2017

At-Large Selection

The 2017 NCAA Division I Mens Basketball Championship tournament includes 68 teams. Of these, 32 qualify automatically by winning their conference. The other 36 are selected by the committee. The committee's first step is to "select the 36 best teams to fill the at-large berths." Through a series of votes, the committee selects the best teams that do not win the automatic berth from their conference.

The Crashing the Dance at-large selection model attempts to predict which teams the committee will select by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's at-large selection decisions about those teams. The model generates a selection confidence (from 0% to 100%) for each team that essentially predicts how likely the committee is, based on their past behavior, to select that team for an at-large berth. Ranking all of the teams by their selection confidence and excluding the 32 automatic qualifiers gives us the 36 at-large selections. For convenience, we (roughly) separate the teams into three groups: those that are looking good, those that should not get comfy, and those that must win their conference.

See the selection notes for more information.

Looking good

These teams (listed by conference) should be in the field regardless of whether they are the automatic qualifier from their conference. Some of these teams will likely win their conference (the current conference leader is marked with type Q), but the model gives each of these teams essentially a 100% chance of at-large selection (projected at-large selections are marked with type L) if today were Selection Sunday. (Hint - move the mouse over the data for more information.)

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Cincinnati AAC Q 24-3 18 16 14 19 12 17 2 3 0 6 3 13 18-0 8-0
SMU AAC L 24-4 24 21 19 8 13 57 1 1 -1 8 4 11 16-0 9-0
Dayton A10 Q 21-5 34 33 24 17 11 48 0 3 0 10 6 9 11-1 7-0
VCU A10 L 23-5 43 35 25 18 11 42 1 2 1 7 4 13 16-2 5-0
Duke ACC L 22-6 9 11 12 15 5 13 3 9 5 13 8 11 9-1 5-0
Florida St. ACC L 22-6 17 20 13 10 5 26 5 9 7 12 7 10 10-1 6-0
Louisville ACC L 22-6 7 6 6 13 5 3 3 6 0 12 6 13 10-0 3-0
North Carolina ACC Q 23-5 3 8 3 3 9 11 4 9 6 14 9 13 9-0 5-0
Notre Dame ACC L 21-7 25 17 27 14 5 56 2 6 0 9 2 8 12-0 6-0
Virginia ACC L 18-9 10 19 20 26 1 24 2 6 -1 10 1 4 8-0 5-0
Virginia Tech ACC L 19-8 48 36 32 1 65 2 2 -4 11 4 4 8-1 7-0
Baylor B12 L 22-5 16 9 5 21 5 1 4 8 5 13 9 14 9-1 3-0
Kansas B12 Q 25-3 6 3 1 1 11 7 4 7 5 15 12 20 10-0 2-0
West Virginia B12 L 22-6 2 13 30 25 5 45 3 5 3 9 6 11 13-3 5-0
Butler BE L 22-6 23 22 11 23 6 2 5 9 7 16 12 12 6-2 5-1
Creighton BE L 21-6 22 23 26 40 3 9 4 5 2 10 4 11 11-0 4-0
Villanova BE Q 26-3 4 2 2 6 10 4 4 9 7 15 12 19 11-0 4-0
Maryland B10 L 21-6 37 24 21 24 5 29 1 3 0 13 7 12 8-0 3-0
Minnesota B10 L 21-7 33 16 31 3 6 2 6 1 11 4 11 10-0 3-0
Purdue B10 L 23-5 11 14 17 9 9 38 2 6 3 12 8 13 11-1 5-0
Wisconsin B10 Q 22-5 13 15 23 11 8 63 2 2 -2 13 8 12 9-0 5-0
Arizona P12 Q 25-3 20 4 9 4 13 18 1 5 2 11 8 16 14-0 6-0
Oregon P12 L 24-4 12 7 4 2 12 22 2 6 4 14 11 14 10-1 6-0
UCLA P12 L 24-3 14 5 18 16 8 28 2 4 1 10 7 12 14-0 9-0
Florida SEC L 23-5 8 12 8 7 11 8 1 5 0 15 10 13 8-0 5-0
Kentucky SEC Q 23-5 5 10 10 5 11 21 1 5 1 13 8 14 10-0 4-0
South Carolina SEC L 19-8 29 26 29 28 5 46 1 3 -2 11 4 7 8-1 4-0
Gonzaga WCC Q 28-0 1 1 7 12 16 5 4 5 5 10 10 17 18-0 11-0
Saint Mary's WCC L 24-3 26 18 15 22 12 20 1 2 -1 7 4 13 17-0 8-0

Don't get comfortable

These teams (ordered by at-large selection confidence or chance) still have some work to do. Some would be on the good side of the bubble if today were Selection Sunday, but there are only 36 at-large berths available and things can change quickly. Again, some of these will earn automatic qualification from their conference, but each has one or more holes in their profile. As a result, the model gives each less than a 100% chance of at-large selection.

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Arkansas SEC L (21) 21-7 42 33 56 5 12 0 3 -2 10 5 11 11-2 4-1
Xavier BE L (22) 18-10 30 30 22 35 1 10 0 3 -4 9 0 6 9-1 2-0
Oklahoma St. B12 L (23) 18-9 21 28 44 1 14 0 3 -4 7 -1 6 11-1 3-0
Michigan B10 L (24) 18-10 27 51 49 1 52 2 3 -4 10 1 3 8-1 5-0
Northwestern B10 L (25) 20-8 40 28 43 42 3 41 2 3 -3 8 0 6 12-0 6-0
Miami FL ACC L (26) 19-8 28 30 37 29 3 79 2 3 -4 7 -1 5 12-0 6-0
Iowa St. B12 L (27) 18-9 19 29 38 20 5 113 1 3 -3 6 -1 4 12-2 5-0
Michigan St. B10 L (28) 16-11 45 46 36 2 72 2 4 -2 8 -2 1 8-1 4-0
USC P12 L (29) 21-6 57 27 32 51 2 16 2 2 -3 5 -1 7 16-0 8-0
Marquette BE L (30) 17-10 32 69 47 1 130 2 5 0 8 -1 -1 9-1 8-0
Providence BE L (31) 17-11 58 54 39 -1 83 2 6 -1 9 1 3 8-3 5-2
Syracuse ACC L (32) 17-12 38 78 34 2 179 3 6 0 8 -1 1 9-3 5-1
Middle Tennessee CUSA Q 23-4 60 32 31 45 13 25 0 2 1 4 3 10 19-3 10-1
Seton Hall BE L (33) 17-10 52 48 58 -1 47 1 4 -2 7 -2 0 10-1 7-0
Wichita St. MVC Q 25-4 15 25 42 30 15 106 0 1 -3 2 -2 9 23-0 12-0
Vanderbilt SEC L (34) 15-13 53 47 50 1 49 1 4 -2 10 -2 1 5-1 2-1
Clemson ACC L (35) 14-13 41 65 84 -7 35 0 4 -6 9 -3 -3 5-1 4-0
Wake Forest ACC L (36) 16-12 39 40 82 -2 15 0 1 -8 6 -6 -1 10-0 5-0
Kansas St. B12 L 17-11 35 35 61 57 -3 55 1 3 -5 4 -6 -1 13-1 7-0
California P12 L 18-9 46 34 45 37 3 71 0 1 -6 4 -4 2 14-1 7-0
Illinois St. MVC L 23-5 55 34 27 15 88 0 1 0 2 -1 9 21-2 10-1
Tennessee SEC L 14-13 56 63 74 -1 64 1 2 -7 8 -4 -3 6-1 4-0
Nevada MWC Q 22-6 66 39 48 7 32 0 0 -1 5 2 8 17-3 8-0
Illinois B10 L 15-12 69 58 72 -3 44 1 3 -4 6 -6 -1 9-0 4-0
Georgia SEC L 14-12 49 57 71 -2 43 0 1 -6 7 -4 -1 7-1 3-0
Rhode Island A10 L 18-9 54 49 66 5 34 1 1 -2 3 -4 4 15-2 5-0
TCU B12 L 16-11 44 53 69 -3 37 0 2 -7 4 -6 0 12-1 5-0
UT Arlington SB Q 19-6 83 35 65 8 19 1 1 -1 2 -1 6 17-3 8-1
Houston AAC L 19-8 47 59 68 5 54 0 2 -2 3 -2 3 16-3 8-0
UNC Wilmington CAA Q 22-5 67 41 62 10 30 0 0 -1 4 1 7 18-2 10-0
Nebraska B10 L 11-14 81 75 79 -2 93 3 3 -5 6 -5 -4 5-3 2-1
Alabama SEC L 16-10 62 71 52 4 117 0 2 -3 4 -5 0 12-1 6-0
Boise St. MWC L 16-9 94 60 46 5 114 1 1 -2 3 -4 2 13-2 5-0
Mississippi SEC L 17-11 70 67 67 1 80 0 1 -7 4 -7 0 13-0 6-0
Georgetown BE L 14-14 51 77 107 -5 51 2 3 -6 5 -8 -3 9-1 4-1
Princeton Ivy Q 16-6 82 55 33 10 103 0 0 -3 1 -3 1 15-2 9-0
New Mexico St. WAC L 20-4 99 52 63 7 50 0 0 0 2 -1 5 18-1 11-0
Pittsburgh ACC L 15-13 63 64 119 -7 23 3 3 -6 6 -5 1 9-2 2-1
East Tennessee St. SC L 21-6 73 70 78 10 74 0 0 -2 3 -1 4 18-2 11-0
Monmouth MAAC Q 24-5 87 44 61 14 31 0 0 -2 1 -2 6 23-2 14-1
Vermont AE Q 24-5 84 50 41 15 82 0 0 -2 0 -4 8 24-1 11-0
Ohio St. B10 L 15-13 59 81 89 -5 67 1 2 -7 6 -5 -2 9-2 5-1
Penn St. B10 L 14-14 77 82 83 -3 102 2 3 -3 6 -5 -3 8-3 3-0

Must win conference

These teams currently have no shot at being selected at-large, so they need to win their conference. Each is the current leader of its conference, but only those in bold have clinched an automatic bid.

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Florida Gulf Coast Asun Q 19-7 118 83 120 9 69 0 1 -2 1 -2 -1 18-4 14-1
Weber St. Bsky Q 14-9 166 192 163 8 227 0 0 0 0 -2 -5 14-7 12-2
UNC Asheville BSth Q 20-7 113 68 94 12 40 0 0 -2 2 -3 0 18-2 14-1
UC Irvine BW Q 14-13 139 157 201 5 124 0 0 -4 0 -7 -7 14-6 13-5
Valparaiso Horz Q 22-6 91 73 92 10 61 0 1 -1 3 1 1 19-4 15-0
North Carolina Central MEAC Q 18-6 171 188 218 11 153 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 18-5 17-2
Akron MAC Q 21-6 98 56 55 9 68 0 0 -2 0 -2 9 21-4 9-3
Mount St. Mary's NEC Q 15-14 217 147 151 10 193 0 0 -5 0 -7 -10 15-7 14-3
Belmont OVC Q 20-5 95 62 64 13 81 0 0 -4 0 -4 4 20-1 12-1
Bucknell Pat Q 22-8 103 86 96 11 92 0 1 -1 2 -1 1 20-5 13-0
Furman SC Q 18-10 124 98 77 9 155 0 0 0 2 -4 -1 16-4 11-2
New Orleans Slnd Q 13-9 219 158 145 8 212 0 0 -3 0 -3 -5 13-6 11-2
North Dakota St. Sum Q 17-9 146 100 111 7 98 0 0 -2 1 -1 -1 16-7 11-2
Texas Southern SWAC Q 16-11 201 129 200 10 73 0 0 -5 0 -6 -7 16-5 14-2
Cal St. Bakersfield WAC Q 16-7 111 80 43 9 163 0 0 -2 2 -2 -2 14-3 12-1

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 36 teams that would be selected for at-large berths in the 2017 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee. Q indicates automatic qualifiers and L signifies at-large selections.
  • The following teams are ineligible for the tournament:
  • RPI numbers may vary slightly from other published sites due to classification of certain games as neutral vs. home/road or vice versa.
  • The selections are estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • Shaded teams would be in the field if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The order should not be interpreted as the seeding order. It is only meant to predict whether teams would be at-large selections, based on how the committee has treated similar teams in the past.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • We only consider the top 105 RPI teams for at-large selection. The lowest-ranked RPI team to receive an at-large bid was #74 New Mexico in 1999 (courtesy CollegeRPI.com).