25 days 17 hours to Selection Sunday 2020

At-Large Selection

The 2020 NCAA Division I Mens Basketball Championship tournament includes 68 teams. Of these, 32 qualify automatically by winning their conference. The other 36 are selected by the committee. The committee's first step is to "select the 36 best teams to fill the at-large berths." Through a series of votes, the committee selects the best teams that do not win the automatic berth from their conference.

The Crashing the Dance at-large selection model attempts to predict which teams the committee will select by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's at-large selection decisions about those teams. The model generates a selection confidence (from 0% to 100%) for each team that essentially predicts how likely the committee is, based on their past behavior, to select that team for an at-large berth. Ranking all of the teams by their selection confidence and excluding the 32 automatic qualifiers gives us the 36 at-large selections. For convenience, we (roughly) separate the teams into three groups: those that are looking good, those that should not get comfy, and those that must win their conference.

See the selection notes for more information.

Looking good

These teams (listed by conference) should be in the field regardless of whether they are the automatic qualifier from their conference. Some of these teams will likely win their conference (the current conference leader is marked with type Q), but the model gives each of these teams essentially a 100% chance of at-large selection (projected at-large selections are marked with type L) if today were Selection Sunday. (Hint - move the mouse over the data for more information.)

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Houston AAC Q 20-6 17 22 23 9 7 81 0 2 -1 8 2 8 12-0 6-0
Dayton A10 Q 23-2 10 5 5 3 12 13 1 5 3 10 8 16 13-0 5-0
Duke ACC L 22-3 2 6 4 15 10 5 2 4 3 10 7 18 12-0 1-0
Florida St. ACC L 21-4 9 8 8 7 8 10 1 3 1 11 8 15 10-1 2-0
Louisville ACC Q 21-5 18 11 12 11 9 20 1 3 1 11 6 11 10-0 5-0
Baylor B12 Q 23-1 4 1 3 1 12 19 4 7 7 13 12 16 10-0 6-0
Kansas B12 L 21-3 1 3 1 2 10 1 5 8 5 16 13 16 5-0 2-0
West Virginia B12 L 18-7 25 18 7 51 0 2 2 5 1 9 4 10 9-2 1-0
Butler BE L 19-7 41 23 26 29 1 25 3 6 1 10 4 7 9-1 5-0
Creighton BE L 19-6 15 15 14 8 5 26 4 7 3 9 3 9 10-0 4-0
Marquette BE L 17-7 19 19 15 20 2 21 1 6 0 7 0 5 10-0 5-0
Seton Hall BE Q 18-7 13 14 18 5 7 59 3 8 3 10 4 8 8-1 3-0
Villanova BE L 19-6 16 13 10 13 4 8 3 7 1 10 4 9 9-0 4-0
Iowa B10 L 18-8 28 20 39 43 3 56 2 4 1 10 4 6 8-2 5-1
Maryland B10 Q 21-4 5 7 6 4 8 7 2 6 2 13 9 11 8-0 6-0
Ohio St. B10 L 17-8 12 24 38 74 0 12 2 5 0 9 1 2 8-0 7-0
Penn St. B10 L 20-5 7 9 32 25 6 84 1 6 3 12 8 8 8-1 7-0
Wisconsin B10 L 15-10 29 42 36 31 2 74 2 6 1 8 -1 0 7-1 5-0
San Diego St. MWC Q 25-0 6 4 9 19 15 6 2 5 5 10 10 15 15-0 10-0
Arizona P12 L 18-7 22 21 17 21 4 24 2 3 -1 7 3 9 11-3 2-0
Colorado P12 Q 20-6 21 17 13 17 6 15 4 5 1 10 6 9 10-2 5-0
Oregon P12 L 20-6 26 16 11 12 5 11 5 6 4 12 9 11 8-3 3-0
Auburn SEC L 22-3 24 12 2 14 6 3 1 8 6 11 9 16 11-1 3-0
Kentucky SEC Q 20-5 8 10 27 10 8 85 1 5 3 8 4 10 12-1 6-1
LSU SEC L 18-7 34 31 20 18 6 34 1 5 0 9 3 8 9-1 3-0
Gonzaga WCC Q 26-1 3 2 16 6 12 38 3 4 4 7 6 15 19-0 10-0

Don't get comfortable

These teams (ordered by at-large selection confidence or chance) still have some work to do. Some would be on the good side of the bubble if today were Selection Sunday, but there are only 36 at-large berths available and things can change quickly. Again, some of these will earn automatic qualification from their conference, but each has one or more holes in their profile. As a result, the model gives each less than a 100% chance of at-large selection.

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Cincinnati AAC L (17) 17-8 31 38 25 16 7 87 1 2 -1 9 2 6 8-1 4-1
Saint Mary's WCC L (18) 20-6 40 36 31 39 4 35 2 4 1 7 4 6 13-3 8-0
Rhode Island A10 L (19) 19-6 48 33 19 22 9 29 0 1 -4 8 3 8 11-1 5-0
Michigan B10 L (20) 16-9 11 28 52 77 0 36 2 5 -1 7 -2 1 9-0 6-0
Xavier BE L (21) 16-9 32 34 47 -2 18 2 3 -5 7 -1 5 9-1 2-0
Virginia ACC L (22) 17-7 30 30 41 38 4 68 2 2 0 7 1 6 10-1 4-0
Michigan St. B10 L (23) 17-9 14 25 44 45 3 54 1 3 -2 8 0 2 9-1 6-0
BYU WCC L (24) 20-7 27 27 22 28 7 16 1 3 -1 5 -2 5 15-0 8-0
Rutgers B10 L (25) 17-8 33 38 43 49 3 43 1 3 -1 8 1 3 9-1 6-0
Oklahoma B12 L (26) 16-9 35 34 29 54 0 22 1 2 -3 7 0 4 9-2 3-0
Arizona St. P12 L (27) 17-8 50 42 24 23 3 55 1 2 -5 6 -1 7 11-1 2-0
Northern Iowa MVC Q 20-4 64 32 21 37 8 9 1 1 0 5 4 11 15-3 6-1
Florida SEC L (28) 16-9 39 36 42 41 4 51 1 3 -3 6 -1 5 10-2 2-0
Texas Tech B12 L (29) 16-9 20 26 57 27 2 113 2 3 -3 6 -2 0 10-1 7-0
Utah St. MWC L (30) 19-7 36 37 56 5 27 1 2 -2 7 2 4 12-2 9-1
Wichita St. AAC L (31) 19-6 37 33 55 2 14 0 1 -3 6 0 7 13-0 6-0
USC P12 L (32) 19-7 61 28 32 3 39 1 1 -4 7 0 7 12-0 5-0
East Tennessee St. SC Q 20-4 52 38 35 61 10 17 1 1 -1 5 3 8 15-2 9-1
Georgetown BE L (33) 15-10 46 45 53 -2 41 1 2 -6 7 -3 1 8-0 4-0
Illinois B10 L (34) 15-9 38 29 53 34 2 132 0 2 -5 7 -1 -1 8-1 7-0
Richmond A10 L (35) 19-6 63 30 33 6 42 1 2 -2 3 -2 7 16-1 6-0
Mississippi St. SEC L (36) 16-9 44 50 35 2 91 0 3 -3 5 -1 3 11-3 4-0
N.C. State ACC L 16-9 53 64 98 0 32 0 2 0 8 2 3 8-3 4-0
Alabama SEC L 14-11 42 46 40 0 70 2 5 -2 6 -2 0 8-3 3-0
Providence BE L 14-12 47 59 24 1 163 3 5 -2 7 0 2 7-5 2-2
Indiana B10 L 16-9 45 55 101 -2 28 1 4 -3 5 -4 0 11-0 7-0
South Carolina SEC L 16-9 56 61 30 4 118 0 3 -2 5 -1 4 11-3 4-1
Memphis AAC L 17-8 60 58 84 0 49 1 1 -2 7 1 2 10-2 7-0
SMU AAC L 18-6 71 34 54 44 4 96 1 1 -2 5 1 4 13-2 9-1
Purdue B10 L 14-12 23 76 86 -1 88 0 4 -3 7 -4 -2 7-1 5-1
VCU A10 L 17-8 69 51 48 2 64 1 2 -3 4 -3 2 13-1 7-0
UNC Greensboro SC L 19-6 62 56 71 8 57 0 2 -1 5 1 3 14-2 10-0
Minnesota B10 L 12-12 43 79 73 -2 111 0 4 -4 7 -4 -3 5-1 3-0
Furman SC L 19-5 72 47 58 10 45 0 1 -1 3 0 3 16-2 11-0
Tennessee SEC L 14-11 54 70 78 0 80 0 2 -5 5 -4 -1 9-2 4-0
Utah P12 L 14-11 96 63 102 -3 60 1 2 -5 6 -1 0 8-4 5-2
Akron MAC Q 17-6 86 48 65 6 44 0 0 -2 1 -3 3 16-2 8-0
Texas B12 L 14-11 76 62 75 -4 52 0 0 -8 3 -7 -1 11-1 4-0

Must win conference

These teams currently have no shot at being selected at-large, so they need to win their conference. Each is the current leader of its conference, but only those in bold have clinched an automatic bid.

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Vermont AE Q 20-6 73 72 108 10 65 0 0 -2 1 -4 -1 19-1 15-0
Liberty Asun Q 22-3 85 66 156 8 23 0 1 0 1 0 3 21-2 17-1
Eastern Washington Bsky Q 15-8 140 91 125 6 75 0 0 -2 0 -3 1 15-5 8-2
Winthrop BSth Q 17-9 135 140 117 11 193 0 1 -2 1 -3 -3 16-5 15-4
UC Irvine BW Q 15-10 115 116 90 7 146 0 0 -1 2 -1 -1 13-7 11-5
Hofstra CAA Q 19-7 106 108 97 8 141 0 0 0 1 0 4 18-6 11-3
North Texas CUSA Q 16-9 92 80 50 10 158 0 0 -5 1 -6 -2 15-2 9-0
Wright St. Horz Q 21-5 103 141 115 11 168 0 0 0 1 -1 0 20-3 17-1
Yale Ivy Q 16-6 78 60 113 4 46 0 0 -1 3 -1 2 13-2 8-0
Rider MAAC Q 15-10 190 174 195 3 123 0 0 -2 1 -2 -4 14-7 13-4
North Carolina Central MEAC Q 9-12 251 214 201 6 296 0 0 -2 0 -3 -7 9-9 9-5
Robert Morris NEC Q 14-12 218 216 168 8 304 0 0 -1 0 -1 -3 14-11 10-5
Murray St. OVC Q 17-7 119 165 99 10 291 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 17-6 13-1
Colgate Pat Q 19-7 116 78 76 8 100 1 1 0 1 -2 2 18-4 12-2
Stephen F. Austin Slnd Q 19-3 110 41 90 157 12 30 1 1 -1 1 -1 3 18-1 14-1
South Dakota St. Sum Q 18-8 122 152 114 9 208 0 0 -2 0 -4 -3 18-4 14-1
Little Rock SB Q 17-9 147 96 93 8 131 0 0 -1 0 -4 2 17-5 8-2
Prairie View A&M SWAC Q 11-11 206 195 184 7 216 0 0 -3 0 -5 -8 11-6 10-2
New Mexico St. WAC Q 19-6 87 123 103 12 167 0 1 0 2 1 -2 17-5 16-1

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 36 teams that would be selected for at-large berths in the 2020 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee. Q indicates automatic qualifiers and L signifies at-large selections.
  • The following teams are ineligible for the tournament: Cal Baptist, Florida A&M, Georgia Tech, Merrimack, North Alabama
  • RPI numbers may vary slightly from other published sites due to classification of certain games as neutral vs. home/road or vice versa.
  • The selections are estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • Shaded teams would be in the field if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The order should not be interpreted as the seeding order. It is only meant to predict whether teams would be at-large selections, based on how the committee has treated similar teams in the past.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • We only consider the top 105 RPI teams for at-large selection. The lowest-ranked RPI team to receive an at-large bid was #74 New Mexico in 1999 (courtesy CollegeRPI.com).