55 days 10 hours to Selection Sunday 2020

At-Large Selection

The 2020 NCAA Division I Mens Basketball Championship tournament includes 68 teams. Of these, 32 qualify automatically by winning their conference. The other 36 are selected by the committee. The committee's first step is to "select the 36 best teams to fill the at-large berths." Through a series of votes, the committee selects the best teams that do not win the automatic berth from their conference.

The Crashing the Dance at-large selection model attempts to predict which teams the committee will select by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's at-large selection decisions about those teams. The model generates a selection confidence (from 0% to 100%) for each team that essentially predicts how likely the committee is, based on their past behavior, to select that team for an at-large berth. Ranking all of the teams by their selection confidence and excluding the 32 automatic qualifiers gives us the 36 at-large selections. For convenience, we (roughly) separate the teams into three groups: those that are looking good, those that should not get comfy, and those that must win their conference.

See the selection notes for more information.

Looking good

These teams (listed by conference) should be in the field regardless of whether they are the automatic qualifier from their conference. Some of these teams will likely win their conference (the current conference leader is marked with type Q), but the model gives each of these teams essentially a 100% chance of at-large selection (projected at-large selections are marked with type L) if today were Selection Sunday. (Hint - move the mouse over the data for more information.)

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Wichita St. AAC Q 15-1 18 16 13 5 3 18 1 2 1 4 3 9 11-0 5-0
Dayton A10 Q 15-2 14 11 14 29 4 11 0 2 0 5 3 9 10-0 4-0
Duke ACC Q 15-2 1 3 4 19 4 4 2 4 4 9 8 12 6-1 1-0
Florida St. ACC L 14-2 7 9 5 18 3 7 1 2 1 8 6 9 6-0 3-0
Louisville ACC L 14-3 15 10 11 8 4 23 0 4 3 7 4 8 7-0 3-0
Baylor B12 Q 13-1 4 2 7 1 3 19 3 4 4 6 5 7 7-0 5-0
Kansas B12 L 12-3 2 7 2 6 2 2 4 7 4 7 4 8 5-0 1-0
West Virginia B12 L 14-2 5 13 1 7 2 1 2 5 4 9 7 12 5-0 0-0
Butler BE L 15-1 10 5 6 4 3 9 1 3 2 7 6 9 8-0 5-0
Creighton BE L 12-4 30 26 22 22 0 30 1 4 0 5 1 4 7-0 4-0
Seton Hall BE Q 12-4 8 18 17 2 4 58 1 5 2 7 4 4 5-1 4-0
Villanova BE L 13-3 16 15 8 9 3 12 2 4 1 6 3 7 7-0 3-0
Maryland B10 L 13-4 17 17 9 40 0 5 1 5 3 8 4 5 5-0 4-0
Michigan St. B10 Q 13-4 13 14 18 21 4 38 2 5 4 6 2 5 7-0 4-0
Penn St. B10 L 12-4 34 32 62 60 -1 75 1 3 0 6 3 3 6-1 5-0
Wisconsin B10 L 11-6 20 36 23 15 2 70 2 4 0 6 0 1 5-0 4-0
San Diego St. MWC Q 16-0 9 6 15 57 7 6 1 2 2 7 7 10 9-0 6-0
Colorado P12 L 13-3 26 21 16 25 2 22 2 3 1 6 3 5 7-0 5-0
Oregon P12 L 14-3 11 8 12 11 2 16 1 5 3 9 7 9 5-1 2-0
Stanford P12 Q 14-2 43 25 26 14 3 44 1 1 -1 6 4 7 8-0 5-0
Arkansas SEC L 13-2 29 28 10 30 1 8 1 1 0 3 2 11 10-1 0-0
Auburn SEC Q 15-0 6 4 3 10 3 3 0 3 3 8 8 12 7-0 3-0
Kentucky SEC L 12-3 12 12 55 12 3 99 2 3 2 5 3 4 7-1 5-0
LSU SEC L 12-4 22 33 20 3 4 74 1 3 1 5 1 5 7-0 3-0

Don't get comfortable

These teams (ordered by at-large selection confidence or chance) still have some work to do. Some would be on the good side of the bubble if today were Selection Sunday, but there are only 36 at-large berths available and things can change quickly. Again, some of these will earn automatic qualification from their conference, but each has one or more holes in their profile. As a result, the model gives each less than a 100% chance of at-large selection.

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Saint Mary's WCC L (16) 14-4 37 40 40 53 0 42 1 3 2 6 4 4 8-2 6-0
Gonzaga WCC Q 18-1 3 1 50 79 4 52 1 2 1 3 2 8 15-0 9-0
Rutgers B10 L (17) 11-4 36 34 24 33 1 35 2 2 0 3 0 4 8-1 3-0
Illinois B10 L (18) 11-5 31 31 46 16 2 122 2 3 -1 4 0 1 7-1 5-0
Indiana B10 L (19) 13-3 35 29 21 68 1 17 1 2 -1 2 -1 7 11-0 3-0
Michigan B10 L (20) 11-5 23 20 41 87 -1 41 1 2 -2 4 -1 2 7-0 4-0
Florida SEC L (21) 11-5 40 32 45 2 36 0 2 0 4 1 3 7-2 3-0
Arizona P12 L (22) 11-5 39 30 27 73 -1 25 0 2 -1 3 -2 4 8-0 2-0
Iowa B10 L (23) 12-5 19 24 60 88 0 64 1 2 0 4 0 3 8-1 4-0
USC P12 L (24) 13-3 71 31 42 1 33 1 1 0 4 1 5 9-0 5-0
Memphis AAC L (25) 13-3 25 22 34 26 1 48 0 0 -3 2 -1 5 11-0 5-0
Northern Iowa MVC Q 12-2 62 38 19 62 2 13 1 1 0 2 1 5 10-1 6-1
Miami FL ACC L (26) 10-5 65 28 50 -1 27 0 1 -3 4 0 2 6-1 3-0
BYU WCC L (27) 12-5 33 30 99 1 20 0 0 -3 4 -1 3 8-0 4-0
Georgia SEC L (28) 9-5 63 43 75 -2 31 0 1 -3 4 -1 1 5-0 3-0
Oklahoma B12 L (29) 11-5 51 25 72 0 14 0 0 -4 4 0 3 7-1 3-0
Virginia ACC L (30) 11-4 57 27 65 85 1 68 0 1 1 4 3 3 7-3 4-0
Houston AAC L (31) 12-4 28 35 56 39 1 72 0 0 -2 3 0 5 9-1 3-0
Utah P12 L (32) 10-5 81 53 65 -1 60 0 1 -2 5 2 0 5-2 5-0
Virginia Tech ACC L (33) 13-4 42 71 28 2 139 1 1 -2 4 0 2 9-0 7-0
East Tennessee St. SC L (34) 12-3 52 39 81 3 28 1 1 0 1 -1 5 11-1 5-1
Xavier BE L (35) 12-5 48 42 37 107 -2 15 0 1 -3 4 -1 4 8-0 3-0
Ohio St. B10 L (36) 12-5 27 19 35 118 -2 10 1 2 -2 5 0 2 7-0 5-0
Minnesota B10 L 9-7 32 57 74 0 69 0 2 -1 4 -3 -1 5-0 3-0
Purdue B10 L 10-7 21 37 64 102 0 61 1 1 -4 4 -2 -1 6-1 4-0
TCU B12 L 11-4 45 39 52 24 2 96 0 0 -3 2 -2 3 9-0 4-0
Marquette BE L 11-5 38 40 42 110 -2 26 1 2 -2 3 -2 0 8-0 6-0
Arizona St. P12 L 10-6 74 47 47 -2 63 0 1 -4 4 -2 1 6-0 3-0
Cincinnati AAC L 10-6 41 49 35 2 71 0 0 -2 2 -2 2 8-2 2-0
Richmond A10 L 13-4 88 44 71 2 40 1 2 0 3 0 5 10-1 4-0
Saint Louis A10 L 13-3 77 36 31 2 50 0 1 -1 1 -2 4 12-0 6-0
Rhode Island A10 L 9-5 76 38 54 1 34 0 0 -4 3 -1 2 6-1 2-0
Georgetown BE L 11-6 44 48 105 -2 51 0 0 -3 5 0 0 6-1 5-0
VCU A10 L 12-5 64 59 69 0 57 1 1 -2 3 -2 1 9-0 6-0
Texas Tech B12 L 10-5 24 23 82 36 0 118 1 1 -2 2 -3 -1 8-0 6-0
Akron MAC Q 12-3 69 33 48 4 47 0 0 -3 0 -3 2 12-0 7-0
Duquesne A10 L 14-2 85 69 41 4 98 0 1 1 2 2 7 12-2 6-1
Tennessee SEC L 10-5 50 68 59 1 77 0 0 -5 2 -3 0 8-0 5-0
Oregon St. P12 L 12-4 59 80 44 0 103 1 2 0 2 -1 2 10-1 6-0
Pittsburgh ACC L 11-6 79 74 82 -2 80 2 2 -2 2 -3 0 9-1 5-0
Georgia Tech ACC L 8-8 60 63 46 0 114 0 0 -4 2 -4 -2 6-2 2-0
Alabama SEC L 8-7 47 78 86 -1 87 0 1 -1 3 -1 -3 5-3 4-0
Clemson ACC L 9-7 53 84 49 0 146 1 1 -3 4 -2 -2 5-1 4-0
N.C. State ACC L 11-5 49 58 119 -1 32 1 1 -1 2 -3 1 9-0 5-0
Furman SC L 11-4 87 75 93 3 79 0 1 0 1 -1 1 10-2 6-0

Must win conference

These teams currently have no shot at being selected at-large, so they need to win their conference. Each is the current leader of its conference, but only those in bold have clinched an automatic bid.

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Stony Brook AE Q 11-6 114 85 76 3 97 0 0 -2 1 -3 -4 10-2 9-0
Liberty Asun Q 16-1 61 44 45 141 4 21 0 1 0 1 0 5 15-0 10-0
Northern Colorado Bsky Q 8-5 122 133 131 2 137 0 0 -2 1 -2 -1 7-2 5-1
Radford BSth Q 6-7 131 111 137 3 106 0 1 0 1 -2 -5 5-4 4-0
UC Irvine BW Q 7-8 118 118 17 1 132 0 0 -1 2 -1 0 5-5 2-3
William & Mary CAA Q 12-5 127 89 80 5 116 0 0 -2 1 -1 -2 11-3 9-0
Charlotte CUSA Q 9-5 172 209 95 3 243 0 0 0 1 0 2 8-4 5-3
Wright St. Horz Q 13-4 108 163 173 4 164 0 0 0 0 -2 1 13-2 9-1
Yale Ivy Q 9-4 68 45 29 353 0 24 0 0 0 3 0 1 6-1 4-0
Quinnipiac MAAC Q 9-5 179 175 106 4 232 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 9-4 6-1
Norfolk St. MEAC Q 4-10 269 286 205 3 328 0 0 0 0 -1 -6 4-9 3-3
Robert Morris NEC Q 7-9 222 255 153 4 308 0 0 -1 0 -2 -5 7-7 6-3
Murray St. OVC Q 9-5 141 252 193 4 290 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 9-4 9-0
Colgate Pat Q 12-4 126 96 83 4 110 0 1 0 1 -1 -1 11-2 10-1
Western Carolina SC Q 10-3 148 97 123 4 91 0 0 -3 0 -3 -2 10-0 9-0
Stephen F. Austin Slnd Q 10-3 125 131 283 3 29 1 1 0 1 -1 1 9-1 7-1
South Dakota St. Sum Q 11-7 144 171 162 3 202 0 0 -3 0 -4 -5 11-3 10-1
Georgia St. SB Q 10-6 97 77 126 3 49 0 0 -2 0 -4 -3 10-2 7-0
Prairie View A&M SWAC Q 4-10 226 246 288 1 208 0 0 -3 0 -5 -9 4-5 4-1
New Mexico St. WAC Q 10-6 86 108 98 3 121 0 0 -1 2 -2 -1 8-2 5-0

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 36 teams that would be selected for at-large berths in the 2020 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee. Q indicates automatic qualifiers and L signifies at-large selections.
  • The following teams are ineligible for the tournament:
  • RPI numbers may vary slightly from other published sites due to classification of certain games as neutral vs. home/road or vice versa.
  • The selections are estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • Shaded teams would be in the field if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The order should not be interpreted as the seeding order. It is only meant to predict whether teams would be at-large selections, based on how the committee has treated similar teams in the past.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • We only consider the top 105 RPI teams for at-large selection. The lowest-ranked RPI team to receive an at-large bid was #74 New Mexico in 1999 (courtesy CollegeRPI.com).