15 days 2 hours to Selection Sunday 2024

At-Large Selection

The 2024 NCAA Division I Mens Basketball Championship tournament includes 68 teams. Of these, 32 qualify automatically by winning their conference. The other 36 are selected by the committee. The committee's first step is to "select the 36 best teams to fill the at-large berths." Through a series of votes, the committee selects the best teams that do not win the automatic berth from their conference.

The Crashing the Dance at-large selection model attempts to predict which teams the committee will select by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's at-large selection decisions about those teams. The model generates a selection confidence (from 0% to 100%) for each team that essentially predicts how likely the committee is, based on their past behavior, to select that team for an at-large berth. Ranking all of the teams by their selection confidence and excluding the 32 automatic qualifiers gives us the 36 at-large selections. For convenience, we (roughly) separate the teams into three groups: those that are looking good, those that should not get comfy, and those that must win their conference.

See the selection notes for more information.

Looking good

These teams (listed by conference) should be in the field regardless of whether they are the automatic qualifier from their conference. Some of these teams will likely win their conference (the current conference leader is marked with type Q), but the model gives each of these teams essentially a 100% chance of at-large selection (projected at-large selections are marked with type L) if today were Selection Sunday. (Hint - move the mouse over the data for more information.)

Rank Conf Sparklines Q1 Q12 Q123 Q34 Q4
Conf Type W-L NET Pom. BPI SOR +/- W +/- W +/- +/-
Dayton A10 L 22-5 21 25 27 16 9 3 -1 8 3 10 14-0 7-0
Clemson ACC L 20-8 23 24 21 21 3 5 1 9 3 7 11-2 5-0
Duke ACC L 22-6 13 8 9 13 9 6 3 9 4 10 13-1 6-0
North Carolina ACC Q 22-6 9 9 13 6 11 7 3 12 7 11 10-1 5-0
Baylor B12 L 19-8 14 14 14 10 3 6 -1 11 3 6 8-0 5-0
BYU B12 L 20-8 10 15 17 22 1 5 -1 9 1 3 11-0 9-0
Houston B12 Q 25-3 1 1 1 2 9 8 5 14 11 15 11-0 7-0
Iowa St. B12 L 22-6 8 10 8 7 7 5 1 11 5 7 11-0 9-0
Kansas B12 L 20-7 17 16 16 8 3 6 0 12 6 9 8-1 4-0
Texas B12 L 18-10 33 26 24 29 -1 5 -2 7 -2 0 11-1 8-0
Connecticut BE Q 25-3 4 3 4 3 13 9 6 14 11 13 11-0 9-0
Creighton BE L 21-8 12 12 10 17 6 6 1 13 5 6 8-0 7-0
Marquette BE L 22-6 11 11 12 5 9 6 1 12 6 10 10-0 6-0
Illinois B10 L 21-7 16 13 11 14 7 4 -1 9 2 9 12-0 5-0
Michigan St. B10 L 17-11 24 21 19 45 1 4 -3 8 -3 2 9-0 4-0
Northwestern B10 L 20-8 48 42 37 19 5 5 0 10 3 7 10-1 6-1
Purdue B10 Q 25-3 2 2 2 1 11 9 6 15 12 19 10-0 3-0
Wisconsin B10 L 18-10 22 23 22 23 3 6 0 12 2 4 6-0 4-0
Nevada MWC L 22-6 37 40 55 36 5 6 2 7 2 7 15-1 9-0
San Diego St. MWC L 20-7 18 19 32 24 6 4 -3 8 1 7 12-0 6-0
Utah St. MWC L 21-5 35 43 65 25 7 4 0 8 3 8 13-0 8-0
Arizona P12 Q 22-6 3 4 3 11 9 8 5 12 7 14 10-1 2-0
Washington St. P12 L 22-7 39 41 40 26 8 6 3 9 3 8 13-1 7-0
Alabama SEC L 20-8 6 7 6 9 9 3 -4 11 3 9 9-0 3-0
Auburn SEC L 21-7 7 6 7 15 5 1 -6 8 1 9 13-0 5-0
Florida SEC L 20-8 34 28 28 18 5 3 -4 6 -2 6 14-0 6-0
Kentucky SEC L 20-8 20 18 20 20 5 5 0 7 0 6 13-1 6-0
South Carolina SEC L 23-5 47 46 54 12 7 3 0 9 6 9 14-2 9-0
Tennessee SEC Q 22-6 5 5 5 4 9 5 0 11 5 11 11-0 5-0

Don't get comfortable

These teams (ordered by at-large selection confidence or chance) still have some work to do. Some would be on the good side of the bubble if today were Selection Sunday, but there are only 36 at-large berths available and things can change quickly. Again, some of these will earn automatic qualification from their conference, but each has one or more holes in their profile. As a result, the model gives each less than a 100% chance of at-large selection.

Rank Conf Sparklines Q1 Q12 Q123 Q34 Q4
Conf Type W-L NET Pom. BPI SOR +/- W +/- W +/- +/-
Oklahoma B12 L (24) 19-9 41 39 34 27 -1 4 -3 7 -2 2 12-0 8-0
Saint Mary's WCC Q 23-6 15 20 15 46 15 4 2 7 3 4 16-2 13-0
Mississippi St. SEC L (25) 19-9 31 27 31 35 1 4 -2 7 0 6 12-2 5-1
Texas Tech B12 L (26) 19-9 42 36 33 30 1 4 -3 7 -2 2 12-0 8-0
Boise St. MWC Q 18-8 26 37 38 50 7 5 1 7 0 3 11-1 7-0
Nebraska B10 L (27) 20-9 43 38 39 31 2 4 -3 7 -2 4 13-0 7-0
TCU B12 L (28) 19-9 38 30 26 28 1 3 -5 7 -2 2 12-0 8-0
Colorado St. MWC L (29) 18-9 29 33 67 47 0 5 -1 8 0 5 10-1 4-0
Virginia ACC L (30) 21-8 46 63 46 32 6 3 -2 7 -1 7 14-0 6-0
Florida Atlantic AAC L (31) 21-7 36 35 29 42 7 1 -1 7 2 10 14-2 6-2
St. John's BE L (32) 17-12 40 32 30 44 0 4 -5 9 -2 0 8-1 5-0
Gonzaga WCC L (33) 22-6 19 17 18 34 11 2 -3 4 -2 3 18-0 13-0
Indiana St. MVC Q 24-5 28 45 41 38 13 1 -2 5 1 9 19-1 11-1
Wake Forest ACC L (34) 18-10 27 22 23 49 3 1 -4 6 -4 2 12-0 6-0
Providence BE L (35) 18-10 56 55 47 41 1 5 -2 8 -2 -2 10-0 10-0
Utah P12 L (36) 17-11 50 49 57 55 -1 4 -3 8 -2 1 9-1 5-0
Colorado P12 L 19-9 30 31 52 54 3 1 -4 8 -1 3 11-0 7-0
Seton Hall BE L 18-10 64 58 70 39 5 5 -1 8 0 0 10-2 8-0
New Mexico MWC L 20-7 25 34 58 61 3 3 -1 5 0 6 15-2 8-1
Pittsburgh ACC L 18-10 49 52 36 64 1 3 -3 5 -3 1 13-2 7-0
Villanova BE L 16-12 32 29 25 59 1 3 -5 9 0 -1 7-3 5-0
Princeton Ivy Q 19-3 52 62 51 33 7 0 0 3 0 8 16-0 8-0
Kansas St. B12 L 17-11 75 71 59 48 -1 3 -2 7 -3 1 10-1 5-0
Drake MVC L 23-6 51 53 63 63 11 3 2 5 1 8 18-2 9-0
Memphis AAC L 21-8 72 72 75 52 4 3 1 6 1 9 15-3 5-1
James Madison SB L 26-3 53 60 42 40 11 1 0 1 -1 4 25-1 19-0
Mississippi SEC L 19-9 78 75 90 37 -3 2 -5 5 -4 3 14-0 7-0
UNLV MWC L 15-10 81 76 64 91 5 5 2 5 -2 3 10-3 5-3
Oregon P12 L 19-9 65 61 66 60 5 2 -2 6 -2 4 13-1 6-0
Syracuse ACC L 18-10 82 79 95 43 2 2 -5 6 -2 4 12-2 4-0
Grand Canyon WAC Q 24-4 54 64 69 51 12 1 0 3 1 6 21-2 14-0
Texas A&M SEC L 15-13 58 59 43 69 -3 5 -1 8 -1 -3 7-4 5-0
Iowa B10 L 17-12 60 50 48 56 0 2 -6 7 -4 -1 10-1 6-0
Richmond A10 Q 21-7 71 73 72 62 11 1 -2 6 1 6 15-2 8-0
Cincinnati B12 L 16-12 45 44 35 66 -5 3 -5 5 -5 -5 11-2 9-0
McNeese St. Slnd Q 21-3 55 69 56 53 13 1 1 3 1 4 18-1 15-1
South Florida AAC Q 21-5 85 94 100 57 13 1 1 5 2 9 16-2 9-2
Ohio St. B10 L 17-12 63 57 60 68 -4 3 -3 5 -6 0 12-1 5-0
Appalachian St. SB Q 23-5 73 81 74 65 13 2 2 3 2 6 20-4 13-1

Must win conference

These teams currently have no shot at being selected at-large, so they need to win their conference. Each is the current leader of its conference, but only those in bold have clinched an automatic bid.

Rank Conf Sparklines Q1 Q12 Q123 Q34 Q4
Conf Type W-L NET Pom. BPI SOR +/- W +/- W +/- +/-
Vermont AE Q 21-6 100 96 82 72 12 0 -2 1 -1 3 20-4 13-1
Eastern Kentucky Asun Q 14-12 194 187 171 185 9 0 -2 0 -4 -7 14-8 13-4
Eastern Washington Bsky Q 17-10 130 134 127 127 10 0 -4 0 -7 -4 17-3 13-2
High Point BSth Q 22-6 108 111 113 97 11 0 0 0 -1 4 22-5 14-2
UC Irvine BW Q 20-8 79 77 80 96 11 0 -3 1 -4 0 19-3 13-1
Charleston CAA Q 22-7 102 106 103 82 11 0 -1 1 -2 2 21-4 13-0
Louisiana Tech CUSA Q 18-8 83 82 81 98 8 0 -3 1 -4 -1 17-3 11-0
Oakland Horz Q 19-11 131 133 134 114 9 1 -3 2 -3 -4 17-6 12-0
Fairfield MAAC Q 17-10 161 168 158 157 7 0 0 1 -1 -2 16-8 14-5
Norfolk St. MEAC Q 15-9 225 245 200 148 7 1 0 1 -1 -3 14-7 12-3
Akron MAC Q 18-8 99 100 91 99 9 0 -2 1 -4 -2 17-3 12-0
Merrimack NEC Q 17-10 191 190 195 155 11 0 -3 0 -5 -5 17-5 15-3
Morehead St. OVC Q 18-8 116 124 102 118 9 0 -2 0 -4 -4 18-4 16-2
Colgate Pat Q 20-9 132 145 111 120 13 0 -2 1 -4 -3 19-4 17-3
Samford SC Q 23-5 77 85 93 73 11 0 -2 2 0 5 21-3 13-0
South Dakota St. Sum Q 15-12 159 155 165 191 7 0 -1 0 -3 -1 15-9 10-6
Grambling St. SWAC Q 11-13 290 283 303 214 8 0 -6 0 -7 -7 11-6 10-5

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 36 teams that would be selected for at-large berths in the 2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee. Q indicates automatic qualifiers and L signifies at-large selections.
  • The following teams are ineligible for the tournament: Bellarmine, Le Moyne, Lindenwood, Queens, Southern Indiana, St. Thomas, Stonehill, Tarleton St., Texas A&M Commerce, UC San Diego, Utah Tech
  • The selections are estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • Shaded teams would be in the field if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The order should not be interpreted as the seeding order. It is only meant to predict whether teams would be at-large selections, based on how the committee has treated similar teams in the past.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • We only consider the top 105 RPI/NET teams for at-large selection. The lowest-ranked RPI/NET team to receive an at-large bid was #74 New Mexico in 1999 (courtesy CollegeRPI.com).