Selection Sunday 2022 is here!

At-Large Selection

The 2022 NCAA Division I Mens Basketball Championship tournament includes 68 teams. Of these, 32 qualify automatically by winning their conference. The other 36 are selected by the committee. The committee's first step is to "select the 36 best teams to fill the at-large berths." Through a series of votes, the committee selects the best teams that do not win the automatic berth from their conference.

The Crashing the Dance at-large selection model attempts to predict which teams the committee will select by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's at-large selection decisions about those teams. The model generates a selection confidence (from 0% to 100%) for each team that essentially predicts how likely the committee is, based on their past behavior, to select that team for an at-large berth. Ranking all of the teams by their selection confidence and excluding the 32 automatic qualifiers gives us the 36 at-large selections. For convenience, we (roughly) separate the teams into three groups: those that are looking good, those that should not get comfy, and those that must win their conference.

See the selection notes for more information.

Looking good

These teams (listed by conference) should be in the field regardless of whether they are the automatic qualifier from their conference. Some of these teams will likely win their conference (the current conference leader is marked with type Q), but the model gives each of these teams essentially a 100% chance of at-large selection (projected at-large selections are marked with type L) if today were Selection Sunday. (Hint - move the mouse over the data for more information.)

Rank Conf Sparklines Q1 Q12 Q123 Q34 Q4
Conf Type W-L NET Sag. Pom. BPI SOR +/- W +/- W +/- +/-
Houston AAC Q 28-5 3 5 5 2 16 14 0 -4 10 5 15 18-0 8-0
Memphis AAC L 21-9 31 20 26 22 39 10 5 2 8 1 7 13-2 5-0
Duke ACC L 28-6 13 11 12 11 10 13 6 4 12 7 14 16-1 8-0
North Carolina ACC L 24-9 32 26 29 26 18 10 3 -5 6 -2 11 18-1 5-1
Baylor B12 L 26-6 4 4 4 7 3 9 10 5 18 12 14 8-0 6-0
Kansas B12 Q 28-6 6 3 6 8 1 13 12 7 20 14 19 8-0 3-0
TCU B12 L 20-12 45 44 39 45 27 -2 8 0 10 -2 2 10-0 6-0
Texas B12 L 21-11 17 18 15 18 25 1 5 -5 10 -1 2 11-0 8-0
Texas Tech B12 L 25-9 9 13 9 13 12 7 8 -1 15 6 7 10-0 9-0
Connecticut BE L 23-9 16 16 18 17 23 7 5 -1 13 4 7 10-0 7-0
Providence BE L 25-5 33 35 49 43 13 11 5 2 14 9 15 11-0 5-0
Seton Hall BE L 20-10 37 32 36 36 32 3 6 -1 9 -1 7 11-0 3-0
Villanova BE Q 26-7 7 9 11 6 9 15 8 2 17 10 15 9-0 4-0
Illinois B10 L 22-9 15 15 17 15 17 9 6 0 12 3 9 10-0 4-0
Iowa B10 Q 25-9 14 14 13 14 19 7 3 -3 11 2 9 14-0 7-0
Michigan St. B10 L 22-12 36 28 40 32 22 3 5 -4 13 2 7 9-1 3-0
Ohio St. B10 L 19-11 26 23 32 23 35 3 5 0 10 0 5 9-1 3-0
Purdue B10 L 27-6 11 7 14 9 7 10 8 3 14 8 15 13-0 6-0
Wisconsin B10 L 24-7 24 22 34 27 11 9 9 6 16 11 13 8-2 4-0
Boise St. MWC Q 26-7 29 38 28 55 34 15 6 3 13 7 14 13-1 6-1
Colorado St. MWC L 24-5 28 37 31 81 28 10 5 2 13 9 11 11-1 8-0
San Diego St. MWC L 23-8 25 31 22 30 40 10 5 -3 10 2 8 13-0 7-0
Arizona P12 Q 31-3 2 2 2 4 2 19 6 3 15 12 21 16-0 7-0
UCLA P12 L 25-7 10 10 7 10 15 11 5 1 13 7 14 12-1 4-0
USC P12 L 26-7 35 29 43 40 20 8 4 0 9 4 13 17-2 6-0
Alabama SEC L 19-13 30 24 25 21 29 -1 8 0 13 2 5 6-2 1-0
Arkansas SEC L 25-8 20 17 20 20 14 8 7 1 12 5 10 13-1 7-0
Auburn SEC L 27-5 12 12 10 12 6 11 8 3 15 10 18 12-0 4-0
Kentucky SEC L 26-7 5 6 3 3 5 10 9 2 14 7 11 12-0 8-0
LSU SEC L 22-11 18 19 19 16 26 0 6 -3 11 1 6 11-1 5-0
Tennessee SEC Q 25-7 8 8 8 5 4 12 10 3 15 8 12 10-0 6-0
Gonzaga WCC Q 26-3 1 1 1 1 8 14 10 7 12 9 10 14-0 13-0
Saint Mary's WCC L 24-7 19 21 16 24 24 9 4 -3 10 3 8 14-0 9-0
San Francisco WCC L 23-9 22 33 21 31 51 4 4 -2 9 1 6 14-1 9-1

Don't get comfortable

These teams (ordered by at-large selection confidence or chance) still have some work to do. Some would be on the good side of the bubble if today were Selection Sunday, but there are only 36 at-large berths available and things can change quickly. Again, some of these will earn automatic qualification from their conference, but each has one or more holes in their profile. As a result, the model gives each less than a 100% chance of at-large selection.

Rank Conf Sparklines Q1 Q12 Q123 Q34 Q4
Conf Type W-L NET Sag. Pom. BPI SOR +/- W +/- W +/- +/-
Virginia Tech ACC Q 23-12 27 27 23 19 44 6 3 -2 9 -1 4 14-2 7-0
Loyola Chicago MVC Q 24-7 23 36 24 25 50 11 3 1 8 2 8 16-1 9-0
Texas A&M SEC L (27) 22-11 42 50 42 41 33 3 4 -5 9 0 3 13-2 8-0
Marquette BE L (28) 19-12 43 49 47 54 42 2 5 -2 10 -2 2 9-0 5-0
Creighton BE L (29) 22-11 55 45 53 69 36 6 7 1 11 1 6 11-1 5-0
Davidson A10 L (30) 26-5 38 54 35 50 30 14 2 0 6 2 10 20-1 11-0
Murray St. OVC Q 27-2 21 68 27 29 21 20 2 1 5 4 8 22-1 17-0
Indiana B10 L (31) 20-13 39 30 38 33 48 -1 4 -4 8 -4 0 12-1 7-0
Iowa St. B12 L (32) 20-12 49 60 48 53 31 -5 9 1 10 -2 0 10-0 8-0
Miami FL ACC L (33) 23-10 62 64 62 56 37 8 4 1 9 2 8 14-3 5-0
Xavier BE L (34) 18-13 41 42 60 46 61 -4 5 -3 9 -2 1 9-2 4-0
SMU AAC L (35) 23-8 44 40 54 44 45 9 2 0 6 0 9 17-2 7-1
Michigan B10 L (36) 17-14 34 25 33 28 43 1 5 -5 8 -5 0 9-1 3-0
Oklahoma B12 L 18-15 40 34 30 34 47 -4 4 -8 10 -4 -3 8-1 6-0
Wyoming MWC L 24-8 50 83 58 103 53 8 4 -1 11 5 6 13-2 10-0
Wake Forest ACC L 23-9 48 47 37 37 46 5 1 -3 5 -2 5 18-2 9-0
VCU A10 L 21-9 56 57 67 60 49 9 3 0 6 -2 8 15-1 4-0
Dayton A10 L 23-10 58 61 57 48 67 10 3 1 8 2 7 15-4 9-3
BYU WCC L 20-10 54 48 51 84 59 3 4 -2 7 -2 1 13-1 10-1
Notre Dame ACC L 21-10 53 55 52 51 38 9 2 -6 4 -5 5 17-1 6-0
Rutgers B10 L 18-13 77 59 74 73 52 3 6 0 9 -1 1 9-3 5-1
UAB CUSA Q 25-7 46 53 45 47 68 13 2 1 5 2 7 20-4 12-1
North Texas CUSA L 22-6 47 79 50 59 55 14 1 0 6 2 5 16-2 11-0
Florida SEC L 19-13 59 41 55 42 56 -1 3 -7 7 -5 0 12-1 7-1
Saint Louis A10 L 22-11 63 56 64 52 70 7 1 -4 5 -4 1 17-2 10-0
South Dakota St. Sum Q 28-4 65 75 71 58 41 21 0 -2 2 0 12 26-2 13-1
Chattanooga SC Q 25-7 64 85 72 63 58 13 1 -1 4 2 11 21-5 10-3
St. Bonaventure A10 L 20-9 85 71 88 75 57 6 3 -1 6 -2 2 14-1 9-0
New Mexico St. WAC Q 23-6 79 89 80 117 69 11 2 2 6 4 11 17-4 8-2
Colorado P12 L 21-11 70 52 70 93 60 4 1 -5 7 -1 1 14-3 9-0
Belmont OVC L 24-7 71 82 82 62 62 11 1 -2 4 -2 1 20-1 16-0
Virginia ACC L 19-13 83 65 83 68 65 4 4 -3 7 -1 0 12-5 7-1

Must win conference

These teams currently have no shot at being selected at-large, so they need to win their conference. Each is the current leader of its conference, but only those in bold have clinched an automatic bid.

Rank Conf Sparklines Q1 Q12 Q123 Q34 Q4
Conf Type W-L NET Sag. Pom. BPI SOR +/- W +/- W +/- +/-
Vermont AE Q 27-5 52 84 59 38 71 19 0 -1 1 -1 4 26-3 19-1
Richmond A10 Q 22-12 82 76 85 74 73 5 0 -2 6 -5 5 16-1 6-1
Jacksonville St. Asun Q 19-10 142 149 146 126 140 10 0 -2 1 -2 -1 18-7 15-5
Montana St. Bsky Q 25-7 120 141 125 160 111 15 0 -2 0 -2 0 25-5 20-2
Longwood BSth Q 22-6 126 165 144 131 104 17 0 -1 0 -2 0 22-4 18-2
Cal St. Fullerton BW Q 19-10 153 159 148 174 148 10 0 -2 1 -2 2 18-7 11-4
Delaware CAA Q 21-12 137 147 145 151 136 5 0 -2 1 -5 -1 20-6 12-2
Wright St. Horz Q 20-13 191 179 182 163 196 11 0 -1 0 -1 -1 20-12 15-7
Yale Ivy Q 17-11 147 136 149 159 139 9 0 -4 1 -4 -5 16-6 12-1
Saint Peter's MAAC Q 18-11 124 139 118 112 126 11 0 -3 0 -4 0 18-7 11-4
Norfolk St. MEAC Q 21-6 156 198 168 133 118 13 0 -1 0 -2 -1 21-4 19-3
Akron MAC Q 22-9 127 132 131 101 113 11 0 -2 2 -1 -1 20-6 16-2
Bryant NEC Q 21-9 200 202 183 170 127 16 0 -1 0 -4 -3 21-5 18-3
Colgate Pat Q 22-11 128 133 119 109 153 17 0 -2 1 -1 -6 21-9 20-3
Texas A&M Corpus Chris Slnd Q 19-11 241 259 243 238 206 3 0 -2 0 -3 -4 19-8 18-6
Georgia St. SB Q 15-10 159 142 151 137 138 7 0 -1 0 -2 -1 15-8 8-2
Texas Southern SWAC Q 18-12 197 214 188 176 183 11 1 -1 1 -4 -6 17-7 17-5

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 36 teams that would be selected for at-large berths in the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee. Q indicates automatic qualifiers and L signifies at-large selections.
  • The following teams are ineligible for the tournament: Bellarmine, Cal Baptist, Dixie St., Merrimack, North Alabama, Oklahoma St., St. Thomas, Tarleton St., UC San Diego
  • The selections are estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • Shaded teams would be in the field if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The order should not be interpreted as the seeding order. It is only meant to predict whether teams would be at-large selections, based on how the committee has treated similar teams in the past.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • We only consider the top 105 RPI/NET teams for at-large selection. The lowest-ranked RPI/NET team to receive an at-large bid was #74 New Mexico in 1999 (courtesy CollegeRPI.com).