Selection Sunday 2020 is here!

At-Large Selection

The 2020 NCAA Division I Mens Basketball Championship tournament includes 68 teams. Of these, 32 qualify automatically by winning their conference. The other 36 are selected by the committee. The committee's first step is to "select the 36 best teams to fill the at-large berths." Through a series of votes, the committee selects the best teams that do not win the automatic berth from their conference.

The Crashing the Dance at-large selection model attempts to predict which teams the committee will select by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's at-large selection decisions about those teams. The model generates a selection confidence (from 0% to 100%) for each team that essentially predicts how likely the committee is, based on their past behavior, to select that team for an at-large berth. Ranking all of the teams by their selection confidence and excluding the 32 automatic qualifiers gives us the 36 at-large selections. For convenience, we (roughly) separate the teams into three groups: those that are looking good, those that should not get comfy, and those that must win their conference.

See the selection notes for more information.

Looking good

These teams (listed by conference) should be in the field regardless of whether they are the automatic qualifier from their conference. Some of these teams will likely win their conference (the current conference leader is marked with type Q), but the model gives each of these teams essentially a 100% chance of at-large selection (projected at-large selections are marked with type L) if today were Selection Sunday. (Hint - move the mouse over the data for more information.)

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Houston AAC L 23-8 16 24 19 12 8 77 0 4 0 9 1 9 14-0 6-0
Dayton A10 Q 29-2 6 3 2 1 18 18 2 6 4 13 11 21 16-0 6-0
Duke ACC L 25-6 8 10 10 23 10 5 3 3 1 10 6 18 15-2 1-0
Florida St. ACC Q 26-5 5 4 3 5 12 8 3 4 2 13 10 19 13-2 2-0
Louisville ACC L 24-7 18 14 11 13 10 14 2 3 -1 12 6 13 12-1 4-0
Virginia ACC L 23-7 21 18 20 15 10 81 3 4 2 9 3 12 14-1 4-0
Baylor B12 L 26-4 4 5 4 4 12 19 4 10 8 14 12 17 12-2 5-0
Kansas B12 Q 27-3 1 1 1 2 16 2 6 11 8 18 15 22 9-0 2-0
West Virginia B12 L 21-10 20 23 14 61 0 1 1 7 1 10 3 10 11-3 1-0
Butler BE L 22-9 25 21 25 30 2 24 2 7 0 10 2 8 12-1 5-0
Creighton BE Q 23-7 14 9 12 6 8 32 4 11 7 14 8 12 9-1 4-0
Providence BE L 19-12 27 31 40 10 6 169 4 8 1 10 3 8 9-5 1-2
Seton Hall BE L 21-9 15 15 16 8 8 71 4 9 1 11 3 8 10-1 4-0
Villanova BE L 24-7 10 8 6 11 8 7 4 9 2 12 5 14 12-0 3-0
Maryland B10 L 24-7 12 11 13 16 8 9 1 7 2 14 7 10 10-0 7-0
Michigan St. B10 L 22-9 3 12 23 20 8 64 2 7 3 11 3 6 11-1 7-0
Ohio St. B10 L 21-10 7 20 37 56 2 11 3 6 1 12 4 3 9-2 8-0
Penn St. B10 L 21-10 44 26 59 51 2 91 2 4 -1 12 5 5 9-3 7-1
Wisconsin B10 Q 21-10 13 19 26 21 8 76 2 6 1 12 4 5 9-2 6-0
San Diego St. MWC L 29-2 9 6 9 14 17 6 2 4 3 11 10 15 18-1 12-0
Oregon P12 Q 24-7 17 13 8 9 8 10 2 8 5 15 10 14 9-2 3-0
Auburn SEC L 25-6 24 17 5 27 6 3 3 7 5 13 10 16 12-3 3-0
Kentucky SEC Q 25-6 11 7 17 7 12 83 4 8 6 12 7 13 13-1 7-1
BYU WCC L 23-8 19 16 15 18 9 20 3 4 -1 8 0 7 15-0 8-0
Gonzaga WCC Q 31-2 2 2 7 3 16 38 5 6 5 11 9 18 20-0 11-0

Don't get comfortable

These teams (ordered by at-large selection confidence or chance) still have some work to do. Some would be on the good side of the bubble if today were Selection Sunday, but there are only 36 at-large berths available and things can change quickly. Again, some of these will earn automatic qualification from their conference, but each has one or more holes in their profile. As a result, the model gives each less than a 100% chance of at-large selection.

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Saint Mary's WCC L (18) 25-8 39 30 18 24 7 27 2 5 0 9 3 7 16-2 10-0
LSU SEC L (19) 21-10 37 36 22 25 6 33 0 5 -2 10 1 9 11-1 3-1
Iowa B10 L (20) 20-11 30 25 53 64 2 75 1 6 2 10 1 5 10-2 5-1
Cincinnati AAC Q 20-10 35 30 17 8 87 1 4 0 9 1 6 11-2 4-0
Wichita St. AAC L (21) 23-8 32 29 38 4 17 0 2 -4 8 1 11 15-1 4-0
Florida SEC L (22) 19-12 28 42 35 4 49 2 5 -3 8 -2 3 11-2 4-0
Colorado P12 L (23) 21-11 76 34 28 41 2 12 2 6 2 9 0 4 12-2 6-0
Oklahoma B12 L (24) 19-12 31 43 38 46 0 23 2 4 -3 8 -2 4 11-2 3-0
USC P12 L (25) 22-9 53 39 33 29 4 50 1 3 -3 10 3 8 12-2 5-0
East Tennessee St. SC Q 27-4 47 27 21 32 17 13 1 2 0 5 3 13 22-2 11-1
Michigan B10 L (26) 19-12 22 28 52 72 0 37 3 5 -4 9 -2 0 10-1 7-0
Marquette BE L (27) 18-12 41 41 59 -2 21 2 5 -5 8 -2 2 10-2 4-0
Arizona P12 L (28) 21-11 40 38 32 36 3 29 0 4 -2 8 -1 7 13-2 3-0
Rutgers B10 L (29) 19-11 29 36 48 48 2 47 2 4 -1 9 -1 1 10-1 7-0
Utah St. MWC Q 24-8 33 32 36 42 9 26 2 3 -1 6 1 5 18-3 12-1
Memphis AAC L (30) 21-10 50 43 50 2 43 1 3 -1 8 0 5 13-2 6-0
Arizona St. P12 L (31) 20-11 63 34 33 3 46 1 3 -5 9 0 6 11-2 3-0
Illinois B10 L (32) 20-10 26 22 45 28 6 143 0 2 -5 9 0 1 11-1 9-0
N.C. State ACC L (33) 20-12 42 55 78 1 31 2 3 -2 9 2 4 11-5 4-0
UCLA P12 L (34) 18-12 58 35 60 19 6 228 0 5 -1 8 -1 4 10-3 3-1
Xavier BE L (35) 19-13 48 46 71 -3 16 1 3 -8 7 -4 5 12-2 1-0
Richmond A10 L (36) 24-7 55 40 24 26 10 41 0 2 -1 4 -2 8 20-1 9-0
Indiana B10 L 20-12 34 58 102 -1 22 2 3 -5 8 -4 1 12-0 7-0
Mississippi St. SEC L 20-11 46 49 34 4 86 0 3 -2 7 -2 4 13-2 5-0
Rhode Island A10 L 21-9 65 31 31 8 36 0 1 -6 8 1 5 13-2 7-0
Saint Louis A10 L 22-8 64 39 37 6 45 1 2 -2 6 0 7 16-2 7-0
Northern Iowa MVC L 23-6 90 40 27 39 9 15 0 1 0 5 3 11 18-4 7-1
Oklahoma St. B12 L 18-14 36 62 96 -3 53 1 3 -6 6 -5 1 12-3 3-0
Texas B12 L 19-12 51 50 49 0 56 1 2 -6 5 -6 2 14-1 5-0
Texas Tech B12 L 18-13 38 32 72 53 0 120 2 4 -5 5 -6 -3 13-2 8-0
Connecticut AAC L 19-12 56 70 57 2 108 1 4 -2 6 -3 3 13-3 5-1
Tennessee SEC L 17-14 60 56 67 0 78 1 3 -8 6 -6 -3 11-2 6-0
Tulsa AAC L 21-10 81 74 22 8 231 1 3 -1 6 1 5 15-5 7-1
Alabama SEC L 16-15 67 79 91 -2 82 3 5 -2 8 -1 -2 8-6 4-1
Furman SC L 22-7 79 47 54 11 44 1 1 -1 2 -2 3 20-3 12-0
South Carolina SEC L 18-13 62 76 62 2 119 2 4 -3 5 -4 1 13-4 6-2
Akron MAC Q 22-7 86 35 40 10 30 0 0 -2 2 -3 7 20-2 8-0
Stanford P12 L 20-12 80 40 73 89 -1 72 1 3 -4 6 -4 2 14-2 6-0
San Francisco WCC L 21-12 75 54 44 3 89 1 1 -6 4 -6 0 17-2 11-2
Boise St. MWC L 19-12 74 67 70 4 97 1 2 -3 4 -4 -3 15-4 11-1
Yale Ivy Q 21-7 85 51 85 8 40 0 0 0 2 -3 3 19-2 11-0
Purdue B10 L 16-15 23 87 92 -2 95 2 3 -8 8 -6 -3 8-1 5-1

Must win conference

These teams currently have no shot at being selected at-large, so they need to win their conference. Each is the current leader of its conference, but only those in bold have clinched an automatic bid.

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Vermont AE Q 25-7 70 65 94 14 58 0 0 -2 1 -3 0 24-3 19-1
Liberty Asun Q 28-4 93 66 123 13 28 0 1 0 1 0 3 27-3 22-1
Eastern Washington Bsky Q 21-8 116 61 81 12 66 0 0 -2 1 -1 4 20-6 11-2
Winthrop BSth Q 22-10 134 137 119 15 194 1 1 -2 1 -2 -3 21-7 20-5
UC Irvine BW Q 19-11 115 126 109 10 153 0 0 -1 3 1 0 16-9 14-6
Hofstra CAA Q 25-8 94 82 68 13 147 0 0 0 1 0 7 24-7 13-3
North Texas CUSA Q 18-11 111 78 45 10 171 0 0 -5 3 -5 -1 15-3 9-1
Northern Kentucky Horz Q 21-9 122 128 141 10 118 0 0 -1 0 -2 -4 21-7 18-2
Siena MAAC Q 20-10 150 100 86 11 192 0 0 -1 1 -3 0 19-6 14-4
North Carolina Central MEAC Q 15-13 244 200 186 11 299 0 0 -2 0 -4 -7 15-9 15-6
Bradley MVC Q 22-11 92 83 65 7 154 0 0 -3 1 -3 6 21-7 8-3
Robert Morris NEC Q 19-14 197 188 132 11 305 0 0 -1 0 -2 -3 19-12 14-6
Belmont OVC Q 25-7 77 84 73 14 129 0 0 -1 1 -2 2 24-4 18-2
Boston University Pat Q 20-13 166 139 111 9 185 0 0 -1 2 -2 -3 18-9 15-5
Stephen F. Austin Slnd Q 25-3 105 29 63 99 18 39 1 1 0 1 -1 3 24-1 20-1
North Dakota St. Sum Q 23-8 113 109 83 13 160 1 1 0 1 -1 3 22-6 14-2
Little Rock SB Q 20-10 153 88 80 10 126 0 0 -2 0 -4 -1 20-6 13-2
Prairie View A&M SWAC Q 17-13 230 205 194 11 224 0 0 -4 0 -4 -8 17-9 16-4
New Mexico St. WAC Q 23-6 68 91 63 16 164 0 1 0 1 0 -2 22-5 20-1

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 36 teams that would be selected for at-large berths in the 2020 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee. Q indicates automatic qualifiers and L signifies at-large selections.
  • The following teams are ineligible for the tournament: Cal Baptist, Florida A&M, Georgia Tech, Merrimack, North Alabama
  • RPI numbers may vary slightly from other published sites due to classification of certain games as neutral vs. home/road or vice versa.
  • The selections are estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • Shaded teams would be in the field if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The order should not be interpreted as the seeding order. It is only meant to predict whether teams would be at-large selections, based on how the committee has treated similar teams in the past.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • We only consider the top 105 RPI teams for at-large selection. The lowest-ranked RPI team to receive an at-large bid was #74 New Mexico in 1999 (courtesy CollegeRPI.com).