Selection Sunday 2018 is here!

At-Large Selection

The 2018 NCAA Division I Mens Basketball Championship tournament includes 68 teams. Of these, 32 qualify automatically by winning their conference. The other 36 are selected by the committee. The committee's first step is to "select the 36 best teams to fill the at-large berths." Through a series of votes, the committee selects the best teams that do not win the automatic berth from their conference.

The Crashing the Dance at-large selection model attempts to predict which teams the committee will select by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's at-large selection decisions about those teams. The model generates a selection confidence (from 0% to 100%) for each team that essentially predicts how likely the committee is, based on their past behavior, to select that team for an at-large berth. Ranking all of the teams by their selection confidence and excluding the 32 automatic qualifiers gives us the 36 at-large selections. For convenience, we (roughly) separate the teams into three groups: those that are looking good, those that should not get comfy, and those that must win their conference.

See the selection notes for more information.

Looking good

These teams (listed by conference) should be in the field regardless of whether they are the automatic qualifier from their conference. Some of these teams will likely win their conference (the current conference leader is marked with type Q), but the model gives each of these teams essentially a 100% chance of at-large selection (projected at-large selections are marked with type L) if today were Selection Sunday. (Hint - move the mouse over the data for more information.)

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Cincinnati AAC Q 30-4 7 9 6 2 17 28 4 5 1 12 8 19 18-0 7-0
Houston AAC L 26-7 20 20 18 10 11 54 3 5 2 10 6 11 16-3 9-1
Wichita St. AAC L 25-7 15 15 16 13 10 26 2 3 -1 13 7 13 12-1 5-0
Clemson ACC L 23-9 24 21 11 20 4 12 2 5 0 12 3 8 11-0 6-0
Duke ACC L 26-7 3 7 7 16 8 2 3 7 4 15 8 15 11-0 4-0
North Carolina ACC L 25-10 8 10 5 9 6 7 6 12 6 18 9 12 7-1 3-0
Virginia ACC Q 31-2 2 1 1 1 19 3 6 13 12 19 17 26 12-0 3-0
Kansas B12 Q 27-7 6 5 4 4 11 13 2 11 9 21 14 18 6-0 2-0
Oklahoma B12 L 18-13 36 41 49 79 -3 29 3 6 0 10 -2 1 8-1 4-0
TCU B12 L 21-11 19 31 26 61 -1 4 2 3 -4 12 2 7 9-1 3-0
Texas Tech B12 L 24-9 13 14 23 19 4 42 2 6 1 14 6 9 10-1 6-0
West Virginia B12 L 24-10 9 18 27 15 5 84 3 7 0 15 6 7 9-1 7-0
Providence BE L 21-13 55 32 17 3 94 3 6 -3 13 3 5 8-3 4-1
Seton Hall BE L 21-11 25 34 31 43 1 20 1 7 0 9 0 7 12-2 4-1
Villanova BE Q 30-4 1 2 2 3 13 1 4 12 9 17 13 23 13-0 3-0
Xavier BE L 28-5 12 4 3 5 12 6 1 8 4 18 13 21 10-0 2-0
Michigan B10 Q 27-7 11 8 12 6 12 66 4 5 1 10 4 13 17-1 7-0
Michigan St. B10 L 29-4 4 3 14 11 14 32 2 2 -2 7 3 18 22-0 7-0
Ohio St. B10 L 24-8 22 16 20 12 11 60 3 3 -2 8 0 11 16-0 5-0
Purdue B10 L 28-6 5 11 9 7 13 22 3 5 0 11 6 16 17-1 6-0
Nevada MWC L 27-7 39 25 17 28 12 10 1 4 2 8 3 13 19-2 7-0
Arizona P12 Q 27-7 16 12 13 8 13 37 0 5 3 14 8 15 13-1 5-0
Alabama SEC L 19-15 46 39 53 -1 40 4 8 0 13 1 3 6-3 1-0
Arkansas SEC L 23-11 31 37 30 35 3 23 2 7 -1 12 1 8 11-0 4-0
Auburn SEC L 25-7 33 17 15 22 7 14 2 7 2 12 5 14 13-0 4-0
Florida SEC L 20-12 18 23 47 45 3 65 5 9 3 14 4 3 6-2 5-0
Kentucky SEC Q 24-10 14 19 10 24 5 8 1 8 -1 16 6 12 8-0 2-0
Tennessee SEC L 25-8 17 13 8 14 9 16 3 6 -1 14 6 15 11-0 2-0
Texas A&M SEC L 20-12 28 40 29 71 -1 5 3 8 -1 12 0 5 8-0 3-0
Gonzaga WCC Q 30-4 10 6 21 21 19 36 1 3 0 8 4 12 22-0 14-0

Don't get comfortable

These teams (ordered by at-large selection confidence or chance) still have some work to do. Some would be on the good side of the bubble if today were Selection Sunday, but there are only 36 at-large berths available and things can change quickly. Again, some of these will earn automatic qualification from their conference, but each has one or more holes in their profile. As a result, the model gives each less than a 100% chance of at-large selection.

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
Texas B12 L (23) 19-14 29 53 65 -2 52 1 7 -2 8 -6 2 11-0 3-0
Loyola Chicago MVC Q 27-5 62 28 22 18 15 57 0 1 0 7 6 17 20-4 6-1
Creighton BE L (24) 20-11 21 27 45 41 1 64 1 5 -3 8 -3 4 12-0 5-0
Butler BE L (25) 20-13 27 42 40 0 56 2 5 -4 10 -2 2 10-1 5-0
Missouri SEC L (26) 19-12 43 38 44 57 1 39 2 5 -1 10 0 5 9-2 2-0
Rhode Island A10 L (27) 25-7 45 24 19 30 13 11 1 4 -2 5 -1 9 20-1 9-0
North Carolina St. ACC L (28) 21-11 48 30 64 32 3 142 4 6 1 10 1 2 11-2 8-0
Miami FL ACC L (29) 22-9 32 26 28 38 3 19 1 3 -3 9 1 4 13-1 9-0
UCLA P12 L (30) 21-11 44 36 46 4 43 2 4 0 10 0 4 11-1 6-0
St. Bonaventure A10 L (31) 25-7 60 32 24 34 10 18 2 4 0 7 3 9 18-3 9-0
Florida St. ACC L (32) 20-11 34 38 54 63 -1 67 2 6 0 8 -2 0 12-1 9-0
Kansas St. B12 L (33) 22-11 41 43 51 27 2 132 0 3 -6 10 -1 5 12-0 6-0
USC P12 L (34) 23-11 35 34 29 7 61 0 2 -4 10 1 7 13-2 6-1
Virginia Tech ACC L (35) 21-11 37 32 61 31 1 123 4 4 -4 8 -2 2 13-1 8-0
Saint Mary's WCC L (36) 28-5 42 22 41 51 14 45 1 2 1 4 1 11 24-2 12-0
Syracuse ACC L 20-13 50 46 90 -2 15 2 4 -3 8 -3 3 12-2 4-0
Middle Tennessee CUSA L 23-7 64 29 33 48 13 25 0 3 0 4 -2 8 19-1 9-1
San Diego St. MWC Q 21-10 52 62 50 7 121 3 4 2 6 2 3 15-6 9-1
Baylor B12 L 17-14 30 42 68 69 -3 63 2 4 -7 8 -5 -3 9-1 6-0
Marquette BE L 19-13 51 58 49 0 98 0 5 -5 8 -4 1 11-1 5-0
Notre Dame ACC L 19-14 26 70 68 -1 82 1 2 -7 8 -3 -2 11-3 7-0
Utah P12 L 19-11 57 59 47 3 99 0 2 -4 8 -2 3 11-1 5-0
Louisville ACC L 20-13 23 38 42 0 44 0 0 -11 7 -6 1 13-0 6-0
Western Kentucky CUSA L 23-10 76 40 36 11 74 1 1 -2 7 2 5 16-5 9-1
Georgia SEC L 18-15 59 79 87 -3 59 1 6 -2 10 -3 1 8-2 3-1
Oregon P12 L 22-12 54 71 52 3 126 1 2 -5 8 -1 3 14-3 7-0
New Mexico St. WAC Q 25-5 67 36 35 58 13 27 0 2 0 3 0 7 22-2 13-0
Boise St. MWC L 22-8 61 50 62 7 58 1 1 -1 5 1 4 17-4 10-0
Mississippi St. SEC L 21-11 65 73 78 0 46 0 4 -4 8 -1 2 13-2 8-0
Davidson A10 Q 21-11 53 43 26 11 147 4 4 -2 4 -2 1 17-5 11-2
Temple AAC L 17-15 85 52 89 -2 21 3 3 -4 7 -3 0 10-5 3-1
Nebraska B10 L 22-10 58 56 23 7 156 1 1 -5 4 -5 4 18-1 8-0
Buffalo MAC Q 25-8 73 25 25 15 34 0 0 -5 2 -3 11 23-3 7-1
Penn St. B10 L 21-13 38 78 60 1 127 3 3 -2 6 -3 -1 15-4 9-0
Washington P12 L 20-12 94 72 102 1 31 2 3 0 8 -2 2 12-2 6-0
South Dakota St. Sum Q 24-6 81 37 33 15 73 1 1 -1 3 -2 1 21-1 17-0
Murray St. OVC Q 24-5 82 48 39 16 104 0 0 -2 4 1 6 20-2 13-0
Maryland B10 L 18-13 40 74 96 -3 33 0 1 -8 3 -8 -2 15-2 7-0
Arizona St. P12 L 20-11 49 35 66 126 -3 9 2 4 2 9 -1 4 11-1 5-0
BYU WCC L 24-10 69 67 92 5 38 0 1 -5 4 -2 3 20-4 12-1

Must win conference

These teams currently have no shot at being selected at-large, so they need to win their conference. Each is the current leader of its conference, but only those in bold have clinched an automatic bid.

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Conf Type W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
UMBC AE Q 21-10 189 111 85 11 210 0 0 -1 1 -3 -1 20-6 14-2
Lipscomb Asun Q 20-9 168 101 180 9 24 0 0 -3 2 -2 0 18-5 14-3
Montana Bsky Q 24-7 98 77 55 17 176 0 0 0 0 -3 1 24-4 16-0
Radford BSth Q 20-12 190 129 144 9 120 0 0 -2 0 -3 -3 20-9 16-5
Cal St. Fullerton BW Q 18-11 171 131 134 7 141 0 0 -2 1 -3 1 17-7 9-3
College of Charleston CAA Q 24-7 111 57 37 13 138 0 0 -2 5 2 4 19-4 16-3
Marshall CUSA Q 23-10 125 87 67 9 133 0 3 0 4 -2 -2 19-4 16-1
Wright St. Horz Q 23-9 133 99 112 13 76 0 0 -3 1 -2 3 22-6 15-4
Penn Ivy Q 23-8 121 112 70 12 165 0 0 -1 0 -3 1 23-5 15-1
Iona MAAC Q 20-13 126 107 114 7 111 0 0 -2 1 -3 -4 19-9 13-2
North Carolina Central MEAC Q 16-15 295 280 273 6 289 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 16-14 15-10
LIU Brooklyn NEC Q 17-16 256 223 181 5 285 0 0 0 0 0 -2 17-16 12-9
Bucknell Pat Q 25-9 91 80 76 17 113 0 0 -2 1 -3 1 24-5 17-2
UNC Greensboro SC Q 24-7 103 65 44 15 148 0 0 -1 5 3 4 19-5 15-2
Stephen F. Austin Slnd Q 24-6 120 104 111 13 93 0 0 -1 1 -1 2 23-4 19-3
Georgia St. SB Q 22-10 112 121 104 9 167 0 0 0 2 2 3 20-10 13-4
Texas Southern SWAC Q 15-19 242 222 264 9 236 0 0 -6 0 -11 -13 15-8 15-6

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 36 teams that would be selected for at-large berths in the 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee. Q indicates automatic qualifiers and L signifies at-large selections.
  • The following teams are ineligible for the tournament:
  • RPI numbers may vary slightly from other published sites due to classification of certain games as neutral vs. home/road or vice versa.
  • The selections are estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • Shaded teams would be in the field if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The order should not be interpreted as the seeding order. It is only meant to predict whether teams would be at-large selections, based on how the committee has treated similar teams in the past.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • We only consider the top 105 RPI teams for at-large selection. The lowest-ranked RPI team to receive an at-large bid was #74 New Mexico in 1999 (courtesy CollegeRPI.com).