Selection Sunday 2018 is here!

Seeding

After selecting the 36 best at-large teams to go with the 32 automatic qualifiers (i.e., conference champions), the committee's second step is to "create a 'seed list' (i.e. rank of the teams in 'true seeds' 1 through 68)." The Crashing the Dance seeding model, like the selection model, attempts to predict how the committee will rank the teams in the seed list by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's relative rankings of those teams.

Each past team is assigned a number of seed points based on their actual seed, with better seeds getting more points. (For example, a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.) The profile of each team in this year's field is compared to those from the past to predict how many seed points (i.e., the average seed) a similar team would have received. We then rank each team by the seed points to obtain our 1 to 68 ranking.

See the seeding notes for more information.

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Seed Conf Points W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
1 Virginia ACC 16.00 31-2 2 1 1 1 19 3 6 13 12 19 17 26 12-0 3-0
2 Villanova BE 16.00 30-4 1 2 2 3 13 1 4 12 9 17 13 23 13-0 3-0
3 Xavier BE 15.20 28-5 12 4 3 5 12 6 1 8 4 18 13 21 10-0 2-0
4 Kansas B12 15.19 27-7 6 5 4 4 11 13 2 11 9 21 14 18 6-0 2-0
5 Duke ACC 15.04 26-7 3 7 7 16 8 2 3 7 4 15 8 15 11-0 4-0
6 North Carolina ACC 15.00 25-10 8 10 5 9 6 7 6 12 6 18 9 12 7-1 3-0
7 Cincinnati AAC 14.70 30-4 7 9 6 2 17 28 4 5 1 12 8 19 18-0 7-0
8 Arizona P12 14.47 27-7 16 12 13 8 13 37 0 5 3 14 8 15 13-1 5-0
9 Tennessee SEC 14.37 25-8 17 13 8 14 9 16 3 6 -1 14 6 15 11-0 2-0
10 Purdue B10 14.28 28-6 5 11 9 7 13 22 3 5 0 11 6 16 17-1 6-0
11 Michigan B10 13.90 27-7 11 8 12 6 12 66 4 5 1 10 4 13 17-1 7-0
12 Michigan St. B10 13.66 29-4 4 3 14 11 14 32 2 2 -2 7 3 18 22-0 7-0
13 Wichita St. AAC 13.57 25-7 15 15 16 13 10 26 2 3 -1 13 7 13 12-1 5-0
14 Texas Tech B12 13.51 24-9 13 14 23 19 4 42 2 6 1 14 6 9 10-1 6-0
15 West Virginia B12 13.49 24-10 9 18 27 15 5 84 3 7 0 15 6 7 9-1 7-0
16 Kentucky SEC 12.89 24-10 14 19 10 24 5 8 1 8 -1 16 6 12 8-0 2-0
17 Houston AAC 12.76 26-7 20 20 18 10 11 54 3 5 2 10 6 11 16-3 9-1
18 Auburn SEC 12.64 25-7 33 17 15 22 7 14 2 7 2 12 5 14 13-0 4-0
19 Clemson ACC 12.33 23-9 24 21 11 20 4 12 2 5 0 12 3 8 11-0 6-0
20 Gonzaga WCC 12.02 30-4 10 6 21 21 19 36 1 3 0 8 4 12 22-0 14-0
21 Ohio St. B10 11.20 24-8 22 16 20 12 11 60 3 3 -2 8 0 11 16-0 5-0
22 Texas A&M SEC 10.36 20-12 28 40 29 71 -1 5 3 8 -1 12 0 5 8-0 3-0
23 Arkansas SEC 10.05 23-11 31 37 30 35 3 23 2 7 -1 12 1 8 11-0 4-0
24 Florida SEC 9.66 20-12 18 23 47 45 3 65 5 9 3 14 4 3 6-2 5-0
25 Nevada MWC 9.60 27-7 39 25 17 28 12 10 1 4 2 8 3 13 19-2 7-0
26 Seton Hall BE 9.50 21-11 25 34 31 43 1 20 1 7 0 9 0 7 12-2 4-1
27 Rhode Island A10 9.28 25-7 45 24 19 30 13 11 1 4 -2 5 -1 9 20-1 9-0
28 TCU B12 9.25 21-11 19 31 26 61 -1 4 2 3 -4 12 2 7 9-1 3-0
29 Creighton BE 9.07 20-11 21 27 45 41 1 64 1 5 -3 8 -3 4 12-0 5-0
30 Alabama SEC 8.99 19-15 46 39 53 -1 40 4 8 0 13 1 3 6-3 1-0
31 Miami FL ACC 8.96 22-9 32 26 28 38 3 19 1 3 -3 9 1 4 13-1 9-0
32 Butler BE 8.94 20-13 27 42 40 0 56 2 5 -4 10 -2 2 10-1 5-0
33 Providence BE 8.91 21-13 55 32 17 3 94 3 6 -3 13 3 5 8-3 4-1
34 UCLA P12 8.61 21-11 44 36 46 4 43 2 4 0 10 0 4 11-1 6-0
35 Missouri SEC 8.52 19-12 43 38 44 57 1 39 2 5 -1 10 0 5 9-2 2-0
36 Oklahoma B12 8.47 18-13 36 41 49 79 -3 29 3 6 0 10 -2 1 8-1 4-0
37 Kansas St. B12 8.33 22-11 41 43 51 27 2 132 0 3 -6 10 -1 5 12-0 6-0
38 North Carolina St. ACC 8.04 21-11 48 30 64 32 3 142 4 6 1 10 1 2 11-2 8-0
39 Virginia Tech ACC 7.80 21-11 37 32 61 31 1 123 4 4 -4 8 -2 2 13-1 8-0
40 St. Bonaventure A10 7.79 25-7 60 32 24 34 10 18 2 4 0 7 3 9 18-3 9-0
41 Texas B12 7.75 19-14 29 53 65 -2 52 1 7 -2 8 -6 2 11-0 3-0
42 USC P12 7.73 23-11 35 34 29 7 61 0 2 -4 10 1 7 13-2 6-1
43 Florida St. ACC 7.55 20-11 34 38 54 63 -1 67 2 6 0 8 -2 0 12-1 9-0
44 San Diego St. MWC 6.39 21-10 52 62 50 7 121 3 4 2 6 2 3 15-6 9-1
45 Saint Mary's WCC 6.35 28-5 42 22 41 51 14 45 1 2 1 4 1 11 24-2 12-0
46 Loyola Chicago MVC 5.78 27-5 62 28 22 18 15 57 0 1 0 7 6 17 20-4 6-1
47 Davidson A10 5.65 21-11 53 43 26 11 147 4 4 -2 4 -2 1 17-5 11-2
48 New Mexico St. WAC 5.10 25-5 67 36 35 58 13 27 0 2 0 3 0 7 22-2 13-0
49 Buffalo MAC 4.90 25-8 73 25 25 15 34 0 0 -5 2 -3 11 23-3 7-1
50 Murray St. OVC 4.15 24-5 82 48 39 16 104 0 0 -2 4 1 6 20-2 13-0
51 South Dakota St. Sum 4.07 24-6 81 37 33 15 73 1 1 -1 3 -2 1 21-1 17-0
52 College of Charleston CAA 3.24 24-7 111 57 37 13 138 0 0 -2 5 2 4 19-4 16-3
53 UNC Greensboro SC 3.24 24-7 103 65 44 15 148 0 0 -1 5 3 4 19-5 15-2
54 Marshall CUSA 3.07 23-10 125 87 67 9 133 0 3 0 4 -2 -2 19-4 16-1
55 Montana Bsky 2.89 24-7 98 77 55 17 176 0 0 0 0 -3 1 24-4 16-0
56 Bucknell Pat 2.81 25-9 91 80 76 17 113 0 0 -2 1 -3 1 24-5 17-2
57 Stephen F. Austin Slnd 2.09 24-6 120 104 111 13 93 0 0 -1 1 -1 2 23-4 19-3
58 Penn Ivy 2.02 23-8 121 112 70 12 165 0 0 -1 0 -3 1 23-5 15-1
59 Wright St. Horz 2.01 23-9 133 99 112 13 76 0 0 -3 1 -2 3 22-6 15-4
60 Georgia St. SB 2.01 22-10 112 121 104 9 167 0 0 0 2 2 3 20-10 13-4
61 Iona MAAC 2.00 20-13 126 107 114 7 111 0 0 -2 1 -3 -4 19-9 13-2
62 Lipscomb Asun 1.99 20-9 168 101 180 9 24 0 0 -3 2 -2 0 18-5 14-3
63 Cal St. Fullerton BW 1.99 18-11 171 131 134 7 141 0 0 -2 1 -3 1 17-7 9-3
64 UMBC AE 1.70 21-10 189 111 85 11 210 0 0 -1 1 -3 -1 20-6 14-2
65 Radford BSth 1.16 20-12 190 129 144 9 120 0 0 -2 0 -3 -3 20-9 16-5
66 LIU Brooklyn NEC 1.00 17-16 256 223 181 5 285 0 0 0 0 0 -2 17-16 12-9
67 North Carolina Central MEAC 1.00 16-15 295 280 273 6 289 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 16-14 15-10
68 Texas Southern SWAC 1.00 15-19 242 222 264 9 236 0 0 -6 0 -11 -13 15-8 15-6

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 1-68 seed list in the 2018 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee.
  • RPI numbers may vary slightly from other published sites due to classification of certain games as neutral vs. home/road or vice versa.
  • The seed list is estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • The selection committee generates the seed list before placing teams in the familiar 1 to 16 seeds seen in the bracket. The seed list is used to balance the bracket and help with geographic placement.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • Shaded teams would have automatic berths if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The "points" column can roughly be used as a weighted estimate of that team's 1-16 seed, where a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.

Thanks to Jerry Palm for past RPI data and Ken Pomeroy for game data.