Selection Sunday 2019 is here!

Seeding

After selecting the 36 best at-large teams to go with the 32 automatic qualifiers (i.e., conference champions), the committee's second step is to "create a 'seed list' (i.e. rank of the teams in 'true seeds' 1 through 68)." The Crashing the Dance seeding model, like the selection model, attempts to predict how the committee will rank the teams in the seed list by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's relative rankings of those teams.

Each past team is assigned a number of seed points based on their actual seed, with better seeds getting more points. (For example, a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.) The profile of each team in this year's field is compared to those from the past to predict how many seed points (i.e., the average seed) a similar team would have received. We then rank each team by the seed points to obtain our 1 to 68 ranking.

See the seeding notes for more information.

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Seed Conf Points W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
1 Duke ACC 16.00 29-5 1 5 1 2 13 2 8 12 7 17 12 22 12-0 2-0
2 Virginia ACC 15.99 29-3 2 2 3 1 14 8 3 10 7 16 13 20 13-0 6-0
3 North Carolina ACC 15.95 27-6 3 3 4 3 14 12 5 11 6 14 8 18 13-0 3-0
4 Gonzaga WCC 15.76 30-3 5 1 7 7 16 11 2 4 1 11 8 23 19-0 4-0
5 Kentucky SEC 15.14 27-6 7 4 8 8 12 13 7 9 4 14 8 15 13-0 6-0
6 Tennessee SEC 15.06 28-4 6 8 6 4 14 16 5 7 3 13 9 19 15-0 5-0
7 Michigan St. B10 15.00 27-6 4 7 10 5 14 35 3 7 4 17 12 18 10-1 3-0
8 Michigan B10 15.00 28-5 8 11 11 11 12 14 3 9 6 17 12 17 11-0 6-0
9 Kansas B12 15.00 25-9 14 18 2 21 7 1 6 10 3 17 9 15 8-1 1-0
10 Houston AAC 14.98 31-2 17 10 5 6 16 7 4 9 7 12 10 21 19-0 8-0
11 Purdue B10 14.60 23-9 10 12 16 9 11 78 1 6 -1 15 7 11 8-1 3-0
12 LSU SEC 14.24 25-6 20 9 13 19 13 22 4 7 5 13 9 15 12-2 4-0
13 Texas Tech B12 14.04 26-6 9 6 19 17 9 28 2 6 2 12 7 15 14-1 5-0
14 Florida St. ACC 13.97 27-7 13 13 12 15 9 9 3 7 2 12 7 16 15-2 4-0
15 Kansas St. B12 13.35 25-8 19 14 17 14 10 47 2 6 1 13 7 13 12-2 4-0
16 Villanova BE 13.00 25-9 18 25 14 13 11 52 1 5 1 16 8 12 9-1 4-0
17 Buffalo MAC 12.67 30-3 25 16 9 12 17 10 0 3 2 8 6 22 22-1 5-0
18 Iowa St. B12 12.30 23-11 15 34 32 29 3 29 5 7 4 12 3 9 11-2 3-0
19 Marquette BE 12.15 24-9 23 22 31 30 6 23 3 6 2 15 6 9 9-0 6-0
20 Auburn SEC 12.12 24-9 11 24 22 27 7 15 3 4 -1 11 2 11 13-0 4-0
21 Cincinnati AAC 11.58 27-6 30 23 15 10 12 56 1 4 0 10 5 16 17-1 6-1
22 Wisconsin B10 10.95 23-10 16 19 26 22 8 43 1 4 -4 13 3 9 10-0 4-0
23 Virginia Tech ACC 10.78 24-8 12 15 27 24 6 24 3 4 -2 6 -2 11 18-0 5-0
24 Mississippi St. SEC 10.52 23-10 21 27 25 40 2 3 3 4 -3 11 1 9 12-0 4-0
25 Wofford SC 9.81 26-4 34 20 21 16 21 108 0 3 -1 9 5 7 17-0 15-0
26 UCF AAC 9.75 23-8 40 26 23 18 7 57 2 4 -1 8 2 11 15-2 4-0
27 Nevada MWC 9.57 29-4 24 17 20 35 12 4 0 2 1 4 1 13 25-1 12-0
28 Maryland B10 9.39 22-10 28 21 29 26 5 41 1 4 -3 14 5 8 8-1 4-0
29 Louisville ACC 8.96 20-13 22 35 33 34 2 33 2 4 -6 9 -2 3 11-2 4-0
30 Seton Hall BE 8.94 20-13 49 35 40 45 1 59 2 5 1 13 2 3 7-2 4-0
31 Minnesota B10 8.33 21-13 43 41 57 -1 19 3 4 -4 9 -1 5 12-3 3-0
32 Saint Mary's WCC 7.87 22-11 38 35 20 8 104 1 2 -4 9 -1 6 13-1 5-0
33 VCU A10 7.78 25-6 51 28 18 31 13 6 0 1 -1 8 4 11 17-2 8-0
34 Syracuse ACC 7.76 20-13 33 37 37 2 64 1 2 -6 7 -4 5 13-2 2-0
35 Utah St. MWC 7.52 27-6 45 29 28 32 15 18 1 2 -1 6 1 8 21-1 13-0
36 Arizona St. P12 7.46 22-10 52 31 44 51 6 42 3 5 2 6 2 10 16-6 4-2
37 Baylor B12 7.28 19-13 44 38 58 38 1 127 1 6 0 9 -1 3 10-3 4-1
38 Iowa B10 7.22 22-11 42 52 65 0 30 1 3 -5 8 -2 6 14-1 5-0
39 Oregon P12 7.08 23-12 32 45 47 6 66 2 5 2 6 0 3 17-6 8-0
40 Oklahoma B12 6.78 19-13 31 38 113 -5 5 2 2 -6 9 -2 5 10-2 1-0
41 Washington P12 6.41 26-8 50 31 24 23 13 32 0 1 -6 6 -1 14 20-1 5-1
42 Alabama SEC 6.37 18-15 55 54 74 -2 49 2 3 -6 9 -3 -2 9-3 5-0
43 Mississippi SEC 6.32 20-12 46 66 60 1 79 3 3 -3 5 -6 1 15-1 7-0
44 TCU B12 6.05 20-13 39 51 92 -4 20 0 2 -7 7 -4 5 13-2 2-0
45 Creighton BE 5.92 17-14 48 63 70 -1 62 0 2 -5 11 -3 0 6-0 3-0
46 St. John's BE 5.89 21-12 65 57 83 -2 26 2 5 1 10 0 2 11-2 7-0
47 Temple AAC 5.84 23-9 68 34 25 7 81 2 4 -2 5 -2 5 18-2 9-0
48 Murray St. OVC 4.89 25-4 56 33 36 48 16 39 0 1 -1 1 -2 4 24-1 17-0
49 New Mexico St. WAC 4.89 28-4 54 39 28 17 97 0 0 -2 2 -1 11 26-1 14-1
50 Old Dominion CUSA 4.04 26-8 111 60 46 11 114 1 2 2 6 4 6 20-6 12-0
51 Vermont AE 3.86 26-6 85 62 101 15 31 0 2 0 3 -1 4 23-2 16-0
52 Northeastern CAA 3.83 21-9 94 55 63 12 67 0 1 -3 5 -1 1 16-3 13-2
53 UC Irvine BW 3.57 29-5 84 38 64 75 17 68 0 1 -1 2 -1 8 27-2 17-1
54 Saint Louis A10 3.45 22-12 102 85 81 5 99 0 2 -2 5 0 -1 17-7 12-1
55 Georgia St. SB 3.34 22-9 114 47 49 9 65 0 0 -1 4 0 5 18-5 10-2
56 Liberty Asun 3.33 25-6 110 37 84 68 15 126 0 1 1 4 1 4 21-3 16-1
57 Yale Ivy 3.25 20-7 100 48 55 7 54 0 0 -4 0 -5 5 20-2 9-1
58 Montana Bsky 2.73 24-8 131 78 91 15 70 0 1 1 1 -2 1 23-5 17-2
59 Northern Kentucky Horz 2.09 24-8 109 94 108 11 77 0 0 -2 0 -2 5 24-6 16-5
60 Colgate Pat 2.05 23-10 137 88 76 11 119 0 0 -1 2 -1 1 21-7 16-4
61 Abilene Christian Slnd 1.83 23-6 163 124 153 12 89 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 23-5 21-2
62 Gardner Webb BSth 1.62 20-11 178 132 131 8 154 0 0 -2 1 -3 -1 19-7 15-5
63 Bradley MVC 1.60 19-14 157 159 141 3 204 0 0 0 1 -2 2 18-11 7-4
64 North Dakota St. Sum 1.00 16-15 193 171 184 5 169 0 0 -3 0 -6 -7 16-9 12-4
65 Iona MAAC 1.00 17-15 188 192 150 9 296 0 0 -2 0 -3 -4 17-12 14-8
66 Prairie View A&M SWAC 1.00 21-12 232 140 126 19 253 0 0 -2 0 -3 -6 21-9 18-3
67 Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 1.00 18-13 217 194 158 9 285 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 18-12 15-7
68 North Carolina Central MEAC 1.00 15-15 297 276 251 7 333 0 0 -1 0 -4 -5 15-11 15-10

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 1-68 seed list in the 2019 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee.
  • RPI numbers may vary slightly from other published sites due to classification of certain games as neutral vs. home/road or vice versa.
  • The seed list is estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • The selection committee generates the seed list before placing teams in the familiar 1 to 16 seeds seen in the bracket. The seed list is used to balance the bracket and help with geographic placement.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • Shaded teams would have automatic berths if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The "points" column can roughly be used as a weighted estimate of that team's 1-16 seed, where a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.

Thanks to Jerry Palm for past RPI data and Ken Pomeroy for game data.