Selection Sunday is here!

Seeding

After selecting the 36 best at-large teams to go with the 32 automatic qualifiers (i.e., conference champions), the committee's second step is to "create a 'seed list' (i.e. rank of the teams in 'true seeds' 1 through 68)." The Crashing the Dance seeding model, like the selection model, attempts to predict how the committee will rank the teams in the seed list by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's relative rankings of those teams.

Each past team is assigned a number of seed points based on their actual seed, with better seeds getting more points. (For example, a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.) The profile of each team in this year's field is compared to those from the past to predict how many seed points (i.e., the average seed) a similar team would have received. We then rank each team by the seed points to obtain our 1 to 68 ranking.

See the seeding notes for more information.

Rank Conf N/C 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Seed Conf Points W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
1 Kansas B12 16.00 29-4 1 1 1 1 15 4 6 15 12 20 17 22 9-1 3-0
2 Virginia ACC 15.90 26-7 4 5 3 4 9 2 8 9 6 16 9 15 10-0 4-0
3 North Carolina ACC 15.35 28-6 3 3 5 5 13 10 4 5 0 15 9 16 13-0 6-0
4 Michigan St. B10 15.32 29-5 2 2 10 16 11 8 6 8 4 14 10 16 15-1 8-0
5 Villanova BE 15.32 29-5 5 6 4 3 15 6 4 7 2 15 10 18 14-0 6-0
6 Oregon P12 15.03 27-6 15 4 2 2 13 7 6 11 8 19 14 16 8-1 5-0
7 Oklahoma B12 15.02 25-7 7 8 6 11 6 5 5 10 4 14 7 15 11-0 3-0
8 Utah P12 15.00 25-8 26 10 8 9 9 9 4 11 4 17 9 11 8-0 6-0
9 Miami FL ACC 15.00 25-7 13 13 9 7 8 18 4 7 4 16 12 14 9-3 4-0
10 West Virginia B12 14.97 26-8 6 7 11 6 9 26 4 9 2 13 5 13 13-0 5-0
11 Xavier BE 14.65 27-5 14 9 7 12 10 3 3 7 4 12 8 18 15-1 4-0
12 Kentucky SEC 14.50 26-8 10 14 12 10 11 15 3 3 1 14 9 14 12-3 4-0
13 Texas A&M SEC 13.15 26-8 16 17 18 30 9 16 2 5 4 14 8 12 12-2 6-0
14 Purdue B10 13.11 26-8 8 11 16 17 7 20 2 4 -1 10 3 13 16-1 5-0
15 Indiana B10 12.95 25-7 11 12 25 15 11 86 2 6 3 10 6 10 15-3 8-0
16 Arizona P12 12.73 25-8 12 15 24 19 6 45 1 5 -2 13 6 9 12-1 8-0
17 California P12 12.46 23-10 27 23 14 8 6 51 3 8 0 12 3 8 11-1 5-0
18 Seton Hall BE 12.36 25-8 28 18 19 13 9 65 3 6 3 10 2 9 15-0 8-0
19 Duke ACC 12.32 23-10 17 22 20 32 4 13 4 6 -1 11 2 10 12-1 3-0
20 Iowa St. B12 12.00 21-11 21 21 23 34 1 17 2 8 -2 12 1 7 9-0 3-0
21 Maryland B10 11.97 24-8 20 16 15 18 6 11 1 5 -1 8 1 11 16-1 6-1
22 Texas B12 10.82 20-12 31 25 27 20 3 61 5 7 -2 13 2 5 7-1 3-0
23 Iowa B10 10.42 21-10 19 20 29 24 5 62 4 5 -2 8 0 4 13-2 7-0
24 Baylor B12 10.40 21-11 24 19 26 26 2 21 2 5 -6 10 -1 5 11-0 5-0
25 Notre Dame ACC 9.24 21-11 35 26 36 37 4 60 4 5 0 8 -3 3 13-0 7-0
26 Saint Joseph's A10 9.14 27-7 51 35 22 25 11 25 2 4 0 9 3 12 18-1 8-0
27 Dayton A10 8.78 25-7 46 29 21 38 10 12 0 3 -2 9 4 14 16-2 5-1
28 Connecticut AAC 8.73 24-10 29 31 31 7 68 1 3 -2 8 -2 4 16-0 10-0
29 Texas Tech B12 8.61 19-12 45 30 35 61 -1 14 2 6 -3 8 -2 4 11-2 3-0
30 Wisconsin B10 8.49 20-12 36 28 43 23 5 98 3 5 -1 10 4 5 10-6 4-1
31 Colorado P12 8.19 21-11 48 34 48 2 44 3 4 -5 8 -2 3 13-1 7-0
32 Oregon St. P12 7.99 18-12 58 32 56 0 36 3 5 -3 10 0 1 8-2 5-0
33 Providence BE 7.92 23-10 43 27 40 47 2 38 2 2 -5 8 1 5 15-3 8-0
34 Butler BE 7.67 21-10 30 32 56 62 1 47 3 4 -4 6 -3 4 15-1 7-0
35 Pittsburgh ACC 7.43 20-11 34 52 57 0 52 1 2 -5 9 0 4 11-2 5-0
36 USC P12 7.27 21-12 42 48 69 0 33 1 5 -3 8 -3 2 13-1 7-0
37 VCU A10 7.21 24-10 37 37 21 11 102 1 2 -3 8 0 8 16-2 7-1
38 Cincinnati AAC 7.16 22-10 33 37 50 44 5 75 1 4 0 7 -2 1 15-1 11-0
39 Vanderbilt SEC 7.03 19-13 23 64 58 3 72 2 2 -5 7 -3 1 12-3 5-0
40 Saint Mary's WCC 6.55 26-5 32 24 38 55 13 24 0 2 0 6 3 3 20-2 18-0
41 St. Bonaventure A10 6.37 22-8 79 37 30 29 9 79 3 3 1 7 2 7 15-3 8-1
42 Syracuse ACC 6.06 19-13 40 74 81 -1 57 2 5 -1 8 -2 1 11-3 6-1
43 Gonzaga WCC 5.75 25-7 22 46 39 15 83 0 2 -3 5 -1 2 20-1 16-0
44 San Diego St. MWC 5.65 23-9 47 35 41 22 15 104 1 1 -3 4 -4 10 19-1 5-1
45 South Carolina SEC 5.45 23-8 52 32 65 88 3 30 1 1 0 8 3 10 15-3 6-1
46 Northern Iowa MVC 5.34 21-12 73 37 70 75 7 66 2 4 3 8 5 3 13-9 9-3
47 Yale Ivy 4.81 21-6 56 44 35 12 73 0 1 -3 1 -3 2 20-2 13-0
48 Arkansas Little Rock SB 4.77 27-4 75 42 51 16 48 0 1 0 4 2 11 23-2 14-2
49 South Dakota St. Sum 4.45 24-7 86 28 40 11 35 0 0 -1 3 1 12 21-5 6-1
50 Chattanooga SC 4.13 27-5 109 47 71 15 32 1 1 0 5 3 9 22-3 14-1
51 Hawaii BW 4.05 25-5 69 80 80 13 103 0 0 -2 7 3 6 18-1 15-1
52 UNC Wilmington CAA 4.04 23-7 89 45 28 13 134 0 0 0 4 2 8 19-5 9-1
53 Stephen F. Austin Slnd 3.98 23-5 57 61 45 20 178 0 0 -1 3 0 4 20-2 15-1
54 Stony Brook AE 3.40 24-6 96 59 89 15 28 0 1 0 2 0 3 22-4 15-0
55 Fresno St. MWC 3.30 23-9 100 66 42 11 135 0 2 -1 2 -3 8 21-4 8-2
56 Buffalo MAC 3.04 19-14 134 91 82 5 128 0 1 -6 2 -7 1 17-5 5-1
57 Iona MAAC 2.81 22-10 97 77 59 15 206 0 0 -2 2 -4 -3 20-4 16-1
58 Middle Tennessee CUSA 2.43 22-9 116 78 90 11 76 0 0 -2 1 -3 1 21-5 12-0
59 Green Bay Horz 2.33 21-12 122 113 105 8 136 0 1 0 2 -4 -2 19-6 12-1
60 Weber St. Bsky 2.08 23-8 136 109 95 15 144 0 1 0 1 -1 0 22-6 18-3
61 Cal St. Bakersfield WAC 2.04 21-8 114 116 110 11 146 0 0 -1 1 -2 -4 20-5 17-0
62 UNC Asheville BSth 1.97 20-11 140 137 133 9 147 0 0 -1 1 -1 -5 19-9 14-0
63 Florida Gulf Coast Asun 1.00 16-13 181 209 196 5 205 0 0 -2 0 -4 -5 16-9 13-5
64 Hampton MEAC 1.00 20-10 235 155 165 13 157 0 0 -3 1 -4 -5 19-5 19-4
65 Austin Peay OVC 1.00 16-17 219 186 189 2 180 0 0 -1 1 -6 -8 15-10 12-5
66 Southern SWAC 1.00 19-12 243 187 221 7 120 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 19-11 15-6
67 Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 1.00 17-14 265 203 202 7 221 0 0 -2 0 -3 -2 17-11 14-9
68 Holy Cross Pat 1.00 14-19 268 249 258 -4 233 0 0 -1 0 -1 -5 14-18 10-10

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 1-68 seed list in the 2016 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee.
  • RPI numbers may vary slightly from other published sites due to classification of certain games as neutral vs. home/road or vice versa.
  • The seed list is estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • The selection committee generates the seed list before placing teams in the familiar 1 to 16 seeds seen in the bracket. The seed list is used to balance the bracket and help with geographic placement.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • Shaded teams would have automatic berths if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The "points" column can roughly be used as a weighted estimate of that team's 1-16 seed, where a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.

Thanks to Jerry Palm for past RPI data and Ken Pomeroy for game data.