Selection Sunday 2024 is here!

Seeding

After selecting the 36 best at-large teams to go with the 32 automatic qualifiers (i.e., conference champions), the committee's second step is to "create a 'seed list' (i.e. rank of the teams in 'true seeds' 1 through 68)." The Crashing the Dance seeding model, like the selection model, attempts to predict how the committee will rank the teams in the seed list by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's relative rankings of those teams.

Each past team is assigned a number of seed points based on their actual seed, with better seeds getting more points. (For example, a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.) The profile of each team in this year's field is compared to those from the past to predict how many seed points (i.e., the average seed) a similar team would have received. We then rank each team by the seed points to obtain our 1 to 68 ranking.

See the seeding notes for more information.

Rank Conf Sparklines Q1 Q12 Q123 Q34 Q4
Seed Conf Points W-L NET Pom. BPI SOR +/- W +/- W +/- +/-
1 Purdue B10 16.00 29-4 3 3 3 2 14 12 8 20 16 22 9-0 3-0
2 Connecticut BE 15.99 31-3 2 1 2 3 19 13 10 21 18 19 10-0 9-0
3 Houston B12 15.99 30-4 1 2 1 1 13 16 12 19 15 19 11-0 7-0
4 North Carolina ACC 15.25 27-7 8 9 9 4 15 9 6 16 9 15 11-0 5-0
5 Arizona P12 14.91 25-8 4 6 5 13 10 8 5 15 8 15 10-1 2-0
6 Iowa St. B12 14.11 27-7 6 5 7 5 11 10 4 16 9 11 11-0 9-0
7 Tennessee SEC 14.00 24-8 7 7 6 7 9 8 1 13 5 11 11-0 5-0
8 Baylor B12 13.98 22-10 14 14 14 8 4 10 1 14 4 7 8-0 5-0
9 Marquette BE 13.98 25-9 13 12 13 6 9 9 1 15 6 10 10-0 6-0
10 Illinois B10 13.67 25-8 15 10 12 10 10 7 1 13 6 12 12-1 5-0
11 Auburn SEC 13.43 27-7 5 4 4 12 10 3 -4 13 6 15 14-0 5-0
12 Creighton BE 13.30 23-9 11 11 10 14 7 8 3 15 6 7 8-0 7-0
13 Duke ACC 13.00 24-8 10 8 8 16 9 5 1 11 3 10 13-0 6-0
14 Alabama SEC 12.89 21-11 9 13 11 15 7 4 -6 11 0 7 10-0 3-0
15 Kansas B12 12.11 21-10 20 22 20 11 1 7 -2 13 4 7 8-1 4-0
16 BYU B12 12.09 23-10 12 16 17 20 2 6 -2 11 1 5 12-0 8-0
17 Kentucky SEC 11.89 23-9 19 18 21 19 7 6 -1 8 0 7 15-1 7-0
18 Texas Tech B12 11.85 23-10 28 25 23 17 4 6 -3 10 0 6 13-0 7-0
19 San Diego St. MWC 11.51 22-10 21 21 35 26 5 4 -5 10 0 6 12-0 6-0
20 Gonzaga WCC 11.09 24-7 17 15 16 23 12 3 -3 7 0 5 17-0 12-0
21 Florida SEC 10.95 24-11 26 24 24 18 7 6 -2 10 0 8 14-1 5-0
22 Dayton A10 10.80 24-7 23 33 34 25 9 3 -1 8 1 10 16-0 7-0
23 South Carolina SEC 10.40 26-7 51 49 58 9 8 6 1 11 6 10 15-2 9-0
24 Wisconsin B10 10.26 22-12 18 17 19 21 5 5 -3 14 2 6 8-0 4-0
25 Nebraska B10 9.75 23-10 33 29 37 22 4 4 -3 9 -1 6 14-0 7-0
26 Washington St. P12 9.52 24-9 44 42 42 37 8 6 2 9 1 7 15-1 8-0
27 Clemson ACC 9.27 21-11 35 35 27 39 1 5 0 10 0 5 11-1 5-0
28 Colorado P12 9.05 24-10 25 27 43 30 7 4 -1 10 0 7 14-0 7-0
29 Texas B12 9.03 20-12 30 28 22 31 -1 5 -4 8 -3 1 12-1 7-0
30 Nevada MWC 9.03 25-7 34 36 54 35 7 6 0 8 2 9 17-1 9-0
31 Saint Mary's WCC 9.00 25-7 16 20 15 48 16 5 2 8 3 6 17-2 12-0
32 TCU B12 8.92 21-12 42 32 26 29 0 5 -6 8 -4 1 13-0 8-0
33 New Mexico MWC 8.65 25-9 22 23 44 59 6 5 -1 8 1 7 17-2 10-1
34 Colorado St. MWC 8.54 22-10 36 38 71 54 3 6 -1 9 0 6 13-1 6-0
35 Utah St. MWC 8.53 25-6 38 48 68 24 10 4 -1 8 2 9 17-0 10-0
36 Florida Atlantic AAC 8.38 25-8 39 41 33 28 10 2 0 10 5 12 15-3 7-2
37 Oregon P12 8.04 23-11 59 55 64 52 7 4 -2 9 -1 6 14-1 6-0
38 Northwestern B10 7.91 21-11 53 46 39 34 3 4 -3 9 -1 4 12-1 7-1
39 Boise St. MWC 7.80 20-10 27 39 47 56 7 6 1 9 0 2 11-1 8-0
40 Texas A&M SEC 7.64 20-14 45 43 36 40 1 7 0 13 3 1 7-4 5-0
41 Pittsburgh ACC 7.61 22-11 40 40 32 45 4 4 -2 9 0 4 13-2 7-0
42 St. John's BE 7.52 20-13 32 26 25 46 2 4 -6 10 -2 0 10-1 7-0
43 Mississippi St. SEC 7.35 21-13 31 30 31 36 -1 4 -5 8 -4 3 13-1 6-1
44 Duquesne A10 6.07 23-11 83 90 95 79 5 2 -1 8 0 2 15-3 10-0
45 N.C. State ACC 6.01 22-14 63 58 60 63 3 3 -5 9 -4 -1 13-1 9-0
46 James Madison SB 5.35 30-3 52 59 46 38 15 1 0 1 -1 5 29-1 22-0
47 UAB AAC 5.14 21-11 105 106 121 86 8 0 -4 7 0 6 14-4 6-2
48 Drake MVC 5.11 27-6 47 51 56 43 15 4 3 7 3 10 20-2 11-0
49 Grand Canyon WAC 5.00 28-4 50 53 61 53 16 1 1 3 1 10 25-2 14-0
50 McNeese St. Slnd 4.89 26-3 56 60 53 57 18 1 1 3 1 5 23-1 19-1
51 Yale Ivy 4.03 20-9 81 81 65 87 9 0 -3 3 -2 6 17-4 7-2
52 Samford SC 4.02 27-5 74 82 97 72 15 0 -2 2 0 7 25-3 15-0
53 Vermont AE 4.00 26-6 102 104 85 71 17 0 -2 2 0 6 24-4 15-1
54 Charleston CAA 3.96 26-7 97 98 98 75 15 0 -1 1 -2 5 25-4 14-0
55 Akron MAC 3.55 22-10 108 116 106 111 11 0 -3 2 -4 0 20-4 14-2
56 Morehead St. OVC 3.48 22-8 106 111 103 115 13 0 -2 0 -4 -3 22-4 19-2
57 Oakland Horz 3.02 23-11 126 137 130 105 13 1 -4 2 -3 -2 21-6 14-0
58 Colgate Pat 2.11 24-9 125 145 111 117 17 0 -2 1 -4 -3 23-4 21-3
59 Long Beach St. BW 2.06 19-14 170 163 172 165 3 0 -1 3 0 2 16-11 9-6
60 Western Kentucky CUSA 2.00 19-11 136 132 160 145 3 0 0 1 1 0 18-11 12-4
61 South Dakota St. Sum 1.57 19-12 135 134 152 157 11 0 -1 0 -3 0 19-9 12-5
62 Longwood BSth 1.01 18-13 162 157 140 170 -1 0 -1 1 -2 -2 17-10 13-6
63 Grambling St. SWAC 1.00 17-14 279 267 299 209 13 0 -6 0 -6 -8 17-8 17-6
64 Stetson Asun 1.00 19-12 209 218 174 147 9 1 -1 1 -3 -2 18-8 17-8
65 Montana St. Bsky 1.00 15-16 208 213 281 277 3 0 -1 1 -2 -4 14-13 10-7
66 Saint Peter's MAAC 1.00 18-13 189 187 202 185 7 0 -1 0 -3 -6 18-10 15-4
67 Howard MEAC 1.00 16-16 273 274 265 248 7 0 -1 0 -4 -8 16-12 15-7
68 Wagner NEC 1.00 14-15 290 293 273 269 1 0 -2 0 -2 -2 14-13 11-10

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 1-68 seed list in the 2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee.
  • The seed list is estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • The selection committee generates the seed list before placing teams in the familiar 1 to 16 seeds seen in the bracket. The seed list is used to balance the bracket and help with geographic placement.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • Shaded teams would have automatic berths if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The "points" column can roughly be used as a weighted estimate of that team's 1-16 seed, where a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.

Thanks to Jerry Palm for past RPI data and Ken Pomeroy for game data.