25 days 18 hours to Selection Sunday 2020

Seeding

After selecting the 36 best at-large teams to go with the 32 automatic qualifiers (i.e., conference champions), the committee's second step is to "create a 'seed list' (i.e. rank of the teams in 'true seeds' 1 through 68)." The Crashing the Dance seeding model, like the selection model, attempts to predict how the committee will rank the teams in the seed list by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's relative rankings of those teams.

Each past team is assigned a number of seed points based on their actual seed, with better seeds getting more points. (For example, a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.) The profile of each team in this year's field is compared to those from the past to predict how many seed points (i.e., the average seed) a similar team would have received. We then rank each team by the seed points to obtain our 1 to 68 ranking.

See the seeding notes for more information.

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Seed Conf Points W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
1 Kansas B12 15.99 21-3 1 3 1 2 10 1 5 8 5 16 13 16 5-0 2-0
2 Baylor B12 15.98 23-1 4 1 3 1 12 19 4 7 7 13 12 16 10-0 6-0
3 Duke ACC 15.69 22-3 2 6 4 15 10 5 2 4 3 10 7 18 12-0 1-0
4 Maryland B10 15.16 21-4 5 7 6 4 8 7 2 6 2 13 9 11 8-0 6-0
5 San Diego St. MWC 15.01 25-0 6 4 9 19 15 6 2 5 5 10 10 15 15-0 10-0
6 Dayton A10 14.94 23-2 10 5 5 3 12 13 1 5 3 10 8 16 13-0 5-0
7 Florida St. ACC 14.92 21-4 9 8 8 7 8 10 1 3 1 11 8 15 10-1 2-0
8 Auburn SEC 14.61 22-3 24 12 2 14 6 3 1 8 6 11 9 16 11-1 3-0
9 Gonzaga WCC 14.24 26-1 3 2 16 6 12 38 3 4 4 7 6 15 19-0 10-0
10 Oregon P12 13.89 20-6 26 16 11 12 5 11 5 6 4 12 9 11 8-3 3-0
11 Villanova BE 13.86 19-6 16 13 10 13 4 8 3 7 1 10 4 9 9-0 4-0
12 Creighton BE 13.86 19-6 15 15 14 8 5 26 4 7 3 9 3 9 10-0 4-0
13 Seton Hall BE 13.74 18-7 13 14 18 5 7 59 3 8 3 10 4 8 8-1 3-0
14 Louisville ACC 13.66 21-5 18 11 12 11 9 20 1 3 1 11 6 11 10-0 5-0
15 Colorado P12 13.17 20-6 21 17 13 17 6 15 4 5 1 10 6 9 10-2 5-0
16 Penn St. B10 13.04 20-5 7 9 32 25 6 84 1 6 3 12 8 8 8-1 7-0
17 Kentucky SEC 12.93 20-5 8 10 27 10 8 85 1 5 3 8 4 10 12-1 6-1
18 West Virginia B12 12.24 18-7 25 18 7 51 0 2 2 5 1 9 4 10 9-2 1-0
19 Marquette BE 12.00 17-7 19 19 15 20 2 21 1 6 0 7 0 5 10-0 5-0
20 Butler BE 11.82 19-7 41 23 26 29 1 25 3 6 1 10 4 7 9-1 5-0
21 Arizona P12 11.72 18-7 22 21 17 21 4 24 2 3 -1 7 3 9 11-3 2-0
22 LSU SEC 10.98 18-7 34 31 20 18 6 34 1 5 0 9 3 8 9-1 3-0
23 Houston AAC 10.98 20-6 17 22 23 9 7 81 0 2 -1 8 2 8 12-0 6-0
24 Ohio St. B10 10.92 17-8 12 24 38 74 0 12 2 5 0 9 1 2 8-0 7-0
25 Iowa B10 9.73 18-8 28 20 39 43 3 56 2 4 1 10 4 6 8-2 5-1
26 BYU WCC 9.50 20-7 27 27 22 28 7 16 1 3 -1 5 -2 5 15-0 8-0
27 Saint Mary's WCC 9.32 20-6 40 36 31 39 4 35 2 4 1 7 4 6 13-3 8-0
28 Michigan B10 9.24 16-9 11 28 52 77 0 36 2 5 -1 7 -2 1 9-0 6-0
29 Michigan St. B10 9.05 17-9 14 25 44 45 3 54 1 3 -2 8 0 2 9-1 6-0
30 Wisconsin B10 9.04 15-10 29 42 36 31 2 74 2 6 1 8 -1 0 7-1 5-0
31 Virginia ACC 9.03 17-7 30 30 41 38 4 68 2 2 0 7 1 6 10-1 4-0
32 Cincinnati AAC 8.91 17-8 31 38 25 16 7 87 1 2 -1 9 2 6 8-1 4-1
33 Xavier BE 8.88 16-9 32 34 47 -2 18 2 3 -5 7 -1 5 9-1 2-0
34 Texas Tech B12 8.48 16-9 20 26 57 27 2 113 2 3 -3 6 -2 0 10-1 7-0
35 Oklahoma B12 8.40 16-9 35 34 29 54 0 22 1 2 -3 7 0 4 9-2 3-0
36 Rutgers B10 8.32 17-8 33 38 43 49 3 43 1 3 -1 8 1 3 9-1 6-0
37 Florida SEC 8.27 16-9 39 36 42 41 4 51 1 3 -3 6 -1 5 10-2 2-0
38 Arizona St. P12 8.16 17-8 50 42 24 23 3 55 1 2 -5 6 -1 7 11-1 2-0
39 Rhode Island A10 8.06 19-6 48 33 19 22 9 29 0 1 -4 8 3 8 11-1 5-0
40 Utah St. MWC 7.81 19-7 36 37 56 5 27 1 2 -2 7 2 4 12-2 9-1
41 Wichita St. AAC 7.64 19-6 37 33 55 2 14 0 1 -3 6 0 7 13-0 6-0
42 Georgetown BE 7.51 15-10 46 45 53 -2 41 1 2 -6 7 -3 1 8-0 4-0
43 Northern Iowa MVC 7.17 20-4 64 32 21 37 8 9 1 1 0 5 4 11 15-3 6-1
44 East Tennessee St. SC 6.65 20-4 52 38 35 61 10 17 1 1 -1 5 3 8 15-2 9-1
45 USC P12 6.52 19-7 61 28 32 3 39 1 1 -4 7 0 7 12-0 5-0
46 Mississippi St. SEC 6.34 16-9 44 50 35 2 91 0 3 -3 5 -1 3 11-3 4-0
47 Illinois B10 6.31 15-9 38 29 53 34 2 132 0 2 -5 7 -1 -1 8-1 7-0
48 Richmond A10 5.99 19-6 63 30 33 6 42 1 2 -2 3 -2 7 16-1 6-0
49 Stephen F. Austin Slnd 3.90 19-3 110 41 90 157 12 30 1 1 -1 1 -1 3 18-1 14-1
50 Yale Ivy 3.79 16-6 78 60 113 4 46 0 0 -1 3 -1 2 13-2 8-0
51 Liberty Asun 3.70 22-3 85 66 156 8 23 0 1 0 1 0 3 21-2 17-1
52 Akron MAC 3.65 17-6 86 48 65 6 44 0 0 -2 1 -3 3 16-2 8-0
53 Vermont AE 3.24 20-6 73 72 108 10 65 0 0 -2 1 -4 -1 19-1 15-0
54 Colgate Pat 3.20 19-7 116 78 76 8 100 1 1 0 1 -2 2 18-4 12-2
55 North Texas CUSA 3.08 16-9 92 80 50 10 158 0 0 -5 1 -6 -2 15-2 9-0
56 New Mexico St. WAC 3.05 19-6 87 123 103 12 167 0 1 0 2 1 -2 17-5 16-1
57 Hofstra CAA 2.41 19-7 106 108 97 8 141 0 0 0 1 0 4 18-6 11-3
58 UC Irvine BW 2.15 15-10 115 116 90 7 146 0 0 -1 2 -1 -1 13-7 11-5
59 Wright St. Horz 2.14 21-5 103 141 115 11 168 0 0 0 1 -1 0 20-3 17-1
60 Eastern Washington Bsky 2.06 15-8 140 91 125 6 75 0 0 -2 0 -3 1 15-5 8-2
61 Little Rock SB 2.04 17-9 147 96 93 8 131 0 0 -1 0 -4 2 17-5 8-2
62 Winthrop BSth 2.02 17-9 135 140 117 11 193 0 1 -2 1 -3 -3 16-5 15-4
63 South Dakota St. Sum 1.98 18-8 122 152 114 9 208 0 0 -2 0 -4 -3 18-4 14-1
64 Murray St. OVC 1.96 17-7 119 165 99 10 291 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 17-6 13-1
65 Rider MAAC 1.06 15-10 190 174 195 3 123 0 0 -2 1 -2 -4 14-7 13-4
66 Prairie View A&M SWAC 1.00 11-11 206 195 184 7 216 0 0 -3 0 -5 -8 11-6 10-2
67 Robert Morris NEC 1.00 14-12 218 216 168 8 304 0 0 -1 0 -1 -3 14-11 10-5
68 North Carolina Central MEAC 1.00 9-12 251 214 201 6 296 0 0 -2 0 -3 -7 9-9 9-5

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 1-68 seed list in the 2020 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee.
  • RPI numbers may vary slightly from other published sites due to classification of certain games as neutral vs. home/road or vice versa.
  • The seed list is estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • The selection committee generates the seed list before placing teams in the familiar 1 to 16 seeds seen in the bracket. The seed list is used to balance the bracket and help with geographic placement.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • Shaded teams would have automatic berths if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The "points" column can roughly be used as a weighted estimate of that team's 1-16 seed, where a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.

Thanks to Jerry Palm for past RPI data and Ken Pomeroy for game data.