Selection Sunday 2021 is here!

Seeding

After selecting the 36 best at-large teams to go with the 32 automatic qualifiers (i.e., conference champions), the committee's second step is to "create a 'seed list' (i.e. rank of the teams in 'true seeds' 1 through 68)." The Crashing the Dance seeding model, like the selection model, attempts to predict how the committee will rank the teams in the seed list by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's relative rankings of those teams.

Each past team is assigned a number of seed points based on their actual seed, with better seeds getting more points. (For example, a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.) The profile of each team in this year's field is compared to those from the past to predict how many seed points (i.e., the average seed) a similar team would have received. We then rank each team by the seed points to obtain our 1 to 68 ranking.

See the seeding notes for more information.

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Seed Conf Points W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
1 Kansas B12 16.00 27-3 1 1 1 2 16 2 6 11 8 18 15 22 9-0 2-0
2 Dayton A10 15.94 29-2 6 3 2 1 18 18 2 6 4 13 11 21 16-0 6-0
3 Gonzaga WCC 15.72 31-2 2 2 7 3 16 38 5 6 5 11 9 18 20-0 11-0
4 Florida St. ACC 15.67 26-5 5 4 3 5 12 8 3 4 2 13 10 19 13-2 2-0
5 Baylor B12 15.47 26-4 4 5 4 4 12 19 4 10 8 14 12 17 12-2 5-0
6 Creighton BE 15.00 23-7 14 9 12 6 8 32 4 11 7 14 8 12 9-1 4-0
7 Oregon P12 14.96 24-7 17 13 8 9 8 10 2 8 5 15 10 14 9-2 3-0
8 Villanova BE 14.89 24-7 10 8 6 11 8 7 4 9 2 12 5 14 12-0 3-0
9 Kentucky SEC 14.80 25-6 11 7 17 7 12 83 4 8 6 12 7 13 13-1 7-1
10 San Diego St. MWC 14.57 29-2 9 6 9 14 17 6 2 4 3 11 10 15 18-1 12-0
11 Maryland B10 14.21 24-7 12 11 13 16 8 9 1 7 2 14 7 10 10-0 7-0
12 Duke ACC 13.86 25-6 8 10 10 23 10 5 3 3 1 10 6 18 15-2 1-0
13 Auburn SEC 13.79 25-6 24 17 5 27 6 3 3 7 5 13 10 16 12-3 3-0
14 Seton Hall BE 13.68 21-9 15 15 16 8 8 71 4 9 1 11 3 8 10-1 4-0
15 Louisville ACC 13.43 24-7 18 14 11 13 10 14 2 3 -1 12 6 13 12-1 4-0
16 Michigan St. B10 13.11 22-9 3 12 23 20 8 64 2 7 3 11 3 6 11-1 7-0
17 Wisconsin B10 12.74 21-10 13 19 26 21 8 76 2 6 1 12 4 5 9-2 6-0
18 Virginia ACC 12.52 23-7 21 18 20 15 10 81 3 4 2 9 3 12 14-1 4-0
19 Butler BE 11.97 22-9 25 21 25 30 2 24 2 7 0 10 2 8 12-1 5-0
20 West Virginia B12 11.94 21-10 20 23 14 61 0 1 1 7 1 10 3 10 11-3 1-0
21 BYU WCC 11.88 23-8 19 16 15 18 9 20 3 4 -1 8 0 7 15-0 8-0
22 Ohio St. B10 11.25 21-10 7 20 37 56 2 11 3 6 1 12 4 3 9-2 8-0
23 Houston AAC 11.25 23-8 16 24 19 12 8 77 0 4 0 9 1 9 14-0 6-0
24 Providence BE 9.84 19-12 27 31 40 10 6 169 4 8 1 10 3 8 9-5 1-2
25 Saint Mary's WCC 9.71 25-8 39 30 18 24 7 27 2 5 0 9 3 7 16-2 10-0
26 LSU SEC 9.16 21-10 37 36 22 25 6 33 0 5 -2 10 1 9 11-1 3-1
27 Florida SEC 9.07 19-12 28 42 35 4 49 2 5 -3 8 -2 3 11-2 4-0
28 Cincinnati AAC 8.97 20-10 35 30 17 8 87 1 4 0 9 1 6 11-2 4-0
29 Oklahoma B12 8.83 19-12 31 43 38 46 0 23 2 4 -3 8 -2 4 11-2 3-0
30 Penn St. B10 8.83 21-10 44 26 59 51 2 91 2 4 -1 12 5 5 9-3 7-1
31 Colorado P12 8.81 21-11 76 34 28 41 2 12 2 6 2 9 0 4 12-2 6-0
32 Arizona P12 8.62 21-11 40 38 32 36 3 29 0 4 -2 8 -1 7 13-2 3-0
33 Wichita St. AAC 8.60 23-8 32 29 38 4 17 0 2 -4 8 1 11 15-1 4-0
34 Rutgers B10 8.54 19-11 29 36 48 48 2 47 2 4 -1 9 -1 1 10-1 7-0
35 Iowa B10 8.53 20-11 30 25 53 64 2 75 1 6 2 10 1 5 10-2 5-1
36 Michigan B10 8.41 19-12 22 28 52 72 0 37 3 5 -4 9 -2 0 10-1 7-0
37 East Tennessee St. SC 8.35 27-4 47 27 21 32 17 13 1 2 0 5 3 13 22-2 11-1
38 Marquette BE 8.17 18-12 41 41 59 -2 21 2 5 -5 8 -2 2 10-2 4-0
39 USC P12 8.16 22-9 53 39 33 29 4 50 1 3 -3 10 3 8 12-2 5-0
40 Utah St. MWC 8.12 24-8 33 32 36 42 9 26 2 3 -1 6 1 5 18-3 12-1
41 Illinois B10 7.25 20-10 26 22 45 28 6 143 0 2 -5 9 0 1 11-1 9-0
42 Memphis AAC 7.11 21-10 50 43 50 2 43 1 3 -1 8 0 5 13-2 6-0
43 Arizona St. P12 6.87 20-11 63 34 33 3 46 1 3 -5 9 0 6 11-2 3-0
44 Xavier BE 6.80 19-13 48 46 71 -3 16 1 3 -8 7 -4 5 12-2 1-0
45 N.C. State ACC 6.44 20-12 42 55 78 1 31 2 3 -2 9 2 4 11-5 4-0
46 Richmond A10 5.81 24-7 55 40 24 26 10 41 0 2 -1 4 -2 8 20-1 9-0
47 UCLA P12 5.67 18-12 58 35 60 19 6 228 0 5 -1 8 -1 4 10-3 3-1
48 Akron MAC 4.30 22-7 86 35 40 10 30 0 0 -2 2 -3 7 20-2 8-0
49 Stephen F. Austin Slnd 3.82 25-3 105 29 63 99 18 39 1 1 0 1 -1 3 24-1 20-1
50 Yale Ivy 3.50 21-7 85 51 85 8 40 0 0 0 2 -3 3 19-2 11-0
51 Vermont AE 3.14 25-7 70 65 94 14 58 0 0 -2 1 -3 0 24-3 19-1
52 Liberty Asun 3.12 28-4 93 66 123 13 28 0 1 0 1 0 3 27-3 22-1
53 New Mexico St. WAC 3.09 23-6 68 91 63 16 164 0 1 0 1 0 -2 22-5 20-1
54 North Texas CUSA 3.04 18-11 111 78 45 10 171 0 0 -5 3 -5 -1 15-3 9-1
55 Belmont OVC 2.97 25-7 77 84 73 14 129 0 0 -1 1 -2 2 24-4 18-2
56 North Dakota St. Sum 2.94 23-8 113 109 83 13 160 1 1 0 1 -1 3 22-6 14-2
57 Bradley MVC 2.87 22-11 92 83 65 7 154 0 0 -3 1 -3 6 21-7 8-3
58 Hofstra CAA 2.84 25-8 94 82 68 13 147 0 0 0 1 0 7 24-7 13-3
59 Eastern Washington Bsky 2.83 21-8 116 61 81 12 66 0 0 -2 1 -1 4 20-6 11-2
60 UC Irvine BW 2.04 19-11 115 126 109 10 153 0 0 -1 3 1 0 16-9 14-6
61 Winthrop BSth 2.01 22-10 134 137 119 15 194 1 1 -2 1 -2 -3 21-7 20-5
62 Little Rock SB 2.01 20-10 153 88 80 10 126 0 0 -2 0 -4 -1 20-6 13-2
63 Siena MAAC 2.00 20-10 150 100 86 11 192 0 0 -1 1 -3 0 19-6 14-4
64 Northern Kentucky Horz 1.98 21-9 122 128 141 10 118 0 0 -1 0 -2 -4 21-7 18-2
65 Boston University Pat 1.61 20-13 166 139 111 9 185 0 0 -1 2 -2 -3 18-9 15-5
66 Robert Morris NEC 1.00 19-14 197 188 132 11 305 0 0 -1 0 -2 -3 19-12 14-6
67 Prairie View A&M SWAC 1.00 17-13 230 205 194 11 224 0 0 -4 0 -4 -8 17-9 16-4
68 North Carolina Central MEAC 1.00 15-13 244 200 186 11 299 0 0 -2 0 -4 -7 15-9 15-6

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 1-68 seed list in the 2020 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee.
  • RPI numbers may vary slightly from other published sites due to classification of certain games as neutral vs. home/road or vice versa.
  • The seed list is estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • The selection committee generates the seed list before placing teams in the familiar 1 to 16 seeds seen in the bracket. The seed list is used to balance the bracket and help with geographic placement.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • Shaded teams would have automatic berths if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The "points" column can roughly be used as a weighted estimate of that team's 1-16 seed, where a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.

Thanks to Jerry Palm for past RPI data and Ken Pomeroy for game data.