Selection Sunday 2022 is here!

Seeding

After selecting the 36 best at-large teams to go with the 32 automatic qualifiers (i.e., conference champions), the committee's second step is to "create a 'seed list' (i.e. rank of the teams in 'true seeds' 1 through 68)." The Crashing the Dance seeding model, like the selection model, attempts to predict how the committee will rank the teams in the seed list by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's relative rankings of those teams.

Each past team is assigned a number of seed points based on their actual seed, with better seeds getting more points. (For example, a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.) The profile of each team in this year's field is compared to those from the past to predict how many seed points (i.e., the average seed) a similar team would have received. We then rank each team by the seed points to obtain our 1 to 68 ranking.

See the seeding notes for more information.

Rank Conf Sparklines Q1 Q12 Q123 Q34 Q4
Seed Conf Points W-L NET Sag. Pom. BPI SOR +/- W +/- W +/- +/-
1 Kansas B12 15.99 28-6 6 3 6 8 1 13 12 7 20 14 19 8-0 3-0
2 Gonzaga WCC 15.86 26-3 1 1 1 1 8 14 10 7 12 9 10 14-0 13-0
3 Arizona P12 15.46 31-3 2 2 2 4 2 19 6 3 15 12 21 16-0 7-0
4 Baylor B12 15.12 26-6 4 4 4 7 3 9 10 5 18 12 14 8-0 6-0
5 Tennessee SEC 14.98 25-7 8 8 8 5 4 12 10 3 15 8 12 10-0 6-0
6 Kentucky SEC 14.93 26-7 5 6 3 3 5 10 9 2 14 7 11 12-0 8-0
7 Houston AAC 14.83 28-5 3 5 5 2 16 14 0 -4 10 5 15 18-0 8-0
8 Auburn SEC 14.82 27-5 12 12 10 12 6 11 8 3 15 10 18 12-0 4-0
9 Villanova BE 14.65 26-7 7 9 11 6 9 15 8 2 17 10 15 9-0 4-0
10 Purdue B10 14.24 27-6 11 7 14 9 7 10 8 3 14 8 15 13-0 6-0
11 UCLA P12 13.99 25-7 10 10 7 10 15 11 5 1 13 7 14 12-1 4-0
12 Duke ACC 13.53 28-6 13 11 12 11 10 13 6 4 12 7 14 16-1 8-0
13 Texas Tech B12 13.43 25-9 9 13 9 13 12 7 8 -1 15 6 7 10-0 9-0
14 Wisconsin B10 13.38 24-7 24 22 34 27 11 9 9 6 16 11 13 8-2 4-0
15 Connecticut BE 12.88 23-9 16 16 18 17 23 7 5 -1 13 4 7 10-0 7-0
16 Iowa B10 12.54 25-9 14 14 13 14 19 7 3 -3 11 2 9 14-0 7-0
17 Arkansas SEC 12.43 25-8 20 17 20 20 14 8 7 1 12 5 10 13-1 7-0
18 Saint Mary's WCC 11.82 24-7 19 21 16 24 24 9 4 -3 10 3 8 14-0 9-0
19 Illinois B10 11.72 22-9 15 15 17 15 17 9 6 0 12 3 9 10-0 4-0
20 LSU SEC 11.63 22-11 18 19 19 16 26 0 6 -3 11 1 6 11-1 5-0
21 Ohio St. B10 10.90 19-11 26 23 32 23 35 3 5 0 10 0 5 9-1 3-0
22 Alabama SEC 10.69 19-13 30 24 25 21 29 -1 8 0 13 2 5 6-2 1-0
23 Michigan St. B10 10.55 22-12 36 28 40 32 22 3 5 -4 13 2 7 9-1 3-0
24 San Diego St. MWC 10.00 23-8 25 31 22 30 40 10 5 -3 10 2 8 13-0 7-0
25 Boise St. MWC 9.97 26-7 29 38 28 55 34 15 6 3 13 7 14 13-1 6-1
26 Providence BE 9.87 25-5 33 35 49 43 13 11 5 2 14 9 15 11-0 5-0
27 Seton Hall BE 9.85 20-10 37 32 36 36 32 3 6 -1 9 -1 7 11-0 3-0
28 TCU B12 9.73 20-12 45 44 39 45 27 -2 8 0 10 -2 2 10-0 6-0
29 Texas B12 9.44 21-11 17 18 15 18 25 1 5 -5 10 -1 2 11-0 8-0
30 North Carolina ACC 9.41 24-9 32 26 29 26 18 10 3 -5 6 -2 11 18-1 5-1
31 USC P12 9.35 26-7 35 29 43 40 20 8 4 0 9 4 13 17-2 6-0
32 Murray St. OVC 8.99 27-2 21 68 27 29 21 20 2 1 5 4 8 22-1 17-0
33 Marquette BE 8.97 19-12 43 49 47 54 42 2 5 -2 10 -2 2 9-0 5-0
34 Creighton BE 8.79 22-11 55 45 53 69 36 6 7 1 11 1 6 11-1 5-0
35 Colorado St. MWC 8.54 24-5 28 37 31 81 28 10 5 2 13 9 11 11-1 8-0
36 Texas A&M SEC 8.29 22-11 42 50 42 41 33 3 4 -5 9 0 3 13-2 8-0
37 Virginia Tech ACC 8.24 23-12 27 27 23 19 44 6 3 -2 9 -1 4 14-2 7-0
38 San Francisco WCC 8.19 23-9 22 33 21 31 51 4 4 -2 9 1 6 14-1 9-1
39 Davidson A10 7.67 26-5 38 54 35 50 30 14 2 0 6 2 10 20-1 11-0
40 Memphis AAC 7.23 21-9 31 20 26 22 39 10 5 2 8 1 7 13-2 5-0
41 Iowa St. B12 7.15 20-12 49 60 48 53 31 -5 9 1 10 -2 0 10-0 8-0
42 Indiana B10 6.94 20-13 39 30 38 33 48 -1 4 -4 8 -4 0 12-1 7-0
43 Miami FL ACC 6.50 23-10 62 64 62 56 37 8 4 1 9 2 8 14-3 5-0
44 Michigan B10 6.49 17-14 34 25 33 28 43 1 5 -5 8 -5 0 9-1 3-0
45 Xavier BE 6.22 18-13 41 42 60 46 61 -4 5 -3 9 -2 1 9-2 4-0
46 Loyola Chicago MVC 6.13 24-7 23 36 24 25 50 11 3 1 8 2 8 16-1 9-0
47 SMU AAC 6.00 23-8 44 40 54 44 45 9 2 0 6 0 9 17-2 7-1
48 South Dakota St. Sum 4.89 28-4 65 75 71 58 41 21 0 -2 2 0 12 26-2 13-1
49 Chattanooga SC 4.28 25-7 64 85 72 63 58 13 1 -1 4 2 11 21-5 10-3
50 UAB CUSA 4.27 25-7 46 53 45 47 68 13 2 1 5 2 7 20-4 12-1
51 Vermont AE 4.19 27-5 52 84 59 38 71 19 0 -1 1 -1 4 26-3 19-1
52 Richmond A10 3.99 22-12 82 76 85 74 73 5 0 -2 6 -5 5 16-1 6-1
53 New Mexico St. WAC 3.55 23-6 79 89 80 117 69 11 2 2 6 4 11 17-4 8-2
54 Norfolk St. MEAC 2.01 21-6 156 198 168 133 118 13 0 -1 0 -2 -1 21-4 19-3
55 Colgate Pat 2.00 22-11 128 133 119 109 153 17 0 -2 1 -1 -6 21-9 20-3
56 Longwood BSth 2.00 22-6 126 165 144 131 104 17 0 -1 0 -2 0 22-4 18-2
57 Montana St. Bsky 2.00 25-7 120 141 125 160 111 15 0 -2 0 -2 0 25-5 20-2
58 Delaware CAA 2.00 21-12 137 147 145 151 136 5 0 -2 1 -5 -1 20-6 12-2
59 Jacksonville St. Asun 2.00 19-10 142 149 146 126 140 10 0 -2 1 -2 -1 18-7 15-5
60 Saint Peter's MAAC 1.96 18-11 124 139 118 112 126 11 0 -3 0 -4 0 18-7 11-4
61 Akron MAC 1.95 22-9 127 132 131 101 113 11 0 -2 2 -1 -1 20-6 16-2
62 Cal St. Fullerton BW 1.26 19-10 153 159 148 174 148 10 0 -2 1 -2 2 18-7 11-4
63 Georgia St. SB 1.02 15-10 159 142 151 137 138 7 0 -1 0 -2 -1 15-8 8-2
64 Texas Southern SWAC 1.02 18-12 197 214 188 176 183 11 1 -1 1 -4 -6 17-7 17-5
65 Yale Ivy 1.00 17-11 147 136 149 159 139 9 0 -4 1 -4 -5 16-6 12-1
66 Bryant NEC 1.00 21-9 200 202 183 170 127 16 0 -1 0 -4 -3 21-5 18-3
67 Wright St. Horz 1.00 20-13 191 179 182 163 196 11 0 -1 0 -1 -1 20-12 15-7
68 Texas A&M Corpus Chris Slnd 1.00 19-11 241 259 243 238 206 3 0 -2 0 -3 -4 19-8 18-6

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 1-68 seed list in the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee.
  • The seed list is estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • The selection committee generates the seed list before placing teams in the familiar 1 to 16 seeds seen in the bracket. The seed list is used to balance the bracket and help with geographic placement.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • Shaded teams would have automatic berths if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The "points" column can roughly be used as a weighted estimate of that team's 1-16 seed, where a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.

Thanks to Jerry Palm for past RPI data and Ken Pomeroy for game data.