55 days 10 hours to Selection Sunday 2020

Seeding

After selecting the 36 best at-large teams to go with the 32 automatic qualifiers (i.e., conference champions), the committee's second step is to "create a 'seed list' (i.e. rank of the teams in 'true seeds' 1 through 68)." The Crashing the Dance seeding model, like the selection model, attempts to predict how the committee will rank the teams in the seed list by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's relative rankings of those teams.

Each past team is assigned a number of seed points based on their actual seed, with better seeds getting more points. (For example, a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.) The profile of each team in this year's field is compared to those from the past to predict how many seed points (i.e., the average seed) a similar team would have received. We then rank each team by the seed points to obtain our 1 to 68 ranking.

See the seeding notes for more information.

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Seed Conf Points W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
1 Duke ACC 15.86 15-2 1 3 4 19 4 4 2 4 4 9 8 12 6-1 1-0
2 Auburn SEC 15.79 15-0 6 4 3 10 3 3 0 3 3 8 8 12 7-0 3-0
3 Baylor B12 15.65 13-1 4 2 7 1 3 19 3 4 4 6 5 7 7-0 5-0
4 Kansas B12 15.65 12-3 2 7 2 6 2 2 4 7 4 7 4 8 5-0 1-0
5 West Virginia B12 14.85 14-2 5 13 1 7 2 1 2 5 4 9 7 12 5-0 0-0
6 Butler BE 14.51 15-1 10 5 6 4 3 9 1 3 2 7 6 9 8-0 5-0
7 Florida St. ACC 14.32 14-2 7 9 5 18 3 7 1 2 1 8 6 9 6-0 3-0
8 Oregon P12 14.26 14-3 11 8 12 11 2 16 1 5 3 9 7 9 5-1 2-0
9 Villanova BE 13.69 13-3 16 15 8 9 3 12 2 4 1 6 3 7 7-0 3-0
10 Louisville ACC 13.68 14-3 15 10 11 8 4 23 0 4 3 7 4 8 7-0 3-0
11 Michigan St. B10 13.26 13-4 13 14 18 21 4 38 2 5 4 6 2 5 7-0 4-0
12 Seton Hall BE 13.11 12-4 8 18 17 2 4 58 1 5 2 7 4 4 5-1 4-0
13 Maryland B10 12.52 13-4 17 17 9 40 0 5 1 5 3 8 4 5 5-0 4-0
14 San Diego St. MWC 12.46 16-0 9 6 15 57 7 6 1 2 2 7 7 10 9-0 6-0
15 Kentucky SEC 12.45 12-3 12 12 55 12 3 99 2 3 2 5 3 4 7-1 5-0
16 Wichita St. AAC 12.39 15-1 18 16 13 5 3 18 1 2 1 4 3 9 11-0 5-0
17 Dayton A10 12.11 15-2 14 11 14 29 4 11 0 2 0 5 3 9 10-0 4-0
18 Colorado P12 11.89 13-3 26 21 16 25 2 22 2 3 1 6 3 5 7-0 5-0
19 LSU SEC 11.30 12-4 22 33 20 3 4 74 1 3 1 5 1 5 7-0 3-0
20 Creighton BE 11.18 12-4 30 26 22 22 0 30 1 4 0 5 1 4 7-0 4-0
21 Wisconsin B10 11.08 11-6 20 36 23 15 2 70 2 4 0 6 0 1 5-0 4-0
22 Arkansas SEC 11.03 13-2 29 28 10 30 1 8 1 1 0 3 2 11 10-1 0-0
23 Stanford P12 10.03 14-2 43 25 26 14 3 44 1 1 -1 6 4 7 8-0 5-0
24 Gonzaga WCC 9.48 18-1 3 1 50 79 4 52 1 2 1 3 2 8 15-0 9-0
25 Rutgers B10 9.41 11-4 36 34 24 33 1 35 2 2 0 3 0 4 8-1 3-0
26 Illinois B10 9.06 11-5 31 31 46 16 2 122 2 3 -1 4 0 1 7-1 5-0
27 Indiana B10 8.71 13-3 35 29 21 68 1 17 1 2 -1 2 -1 7 11-0 3-0
28 Michigan B10 8.43 11-5 23 20 41 87 -1 41 1 2 -2 4 -1 2 7-0 4-0
29 Saint Mary's WCC 8.19 14-4 37 40 40 53 0 42 1 3 2 6 4 4 8-2 6-0
30 Arizona P12 8.06 11-5 39 30 27 73 -1 25 0 2 -1 3 -2 4 8-0 2-0
31 Florida SEC 7.95 11-5 40 32 45 2 36 0 2 0 4 1 3 7-2 3-0
32 Memphis AAC 7.76 13-3 25 22 34 26 1 48 0 0 -3 2 -1 5 11-0 5-0
33 Penn St. B10 7.62 12-4 34 32 62 60 -1 75 1 3 0 6 3 3 6-1 5-0
34 Iowa B10 7.19 12-5 19 24 60 88 0 64 1 2 0 4 0 3 8-1 4-0
35 Northern Iowa MVC 6.79 12-2 62 38 19 62 2 13 1 1 0 2 1 5 10-1 6-1
36 Ohio St. B10 6.74 12-5 27 19 35 118 -2 10 1 2 -2 5 0 2 7-0 5-0
37 East Tennessee St. SC 6.07 12-3 52 39 81 3 28 1 1 0 1 -1 5 11-1 5-1
38 BYU WCC 6.05 12-5 33 30 99 1 20 0 0 -3 4 -1 3 8-0 4-0
39 Oklahoma B12 5.98 11-5 51 25 72 0 14 0 0 -4 4 0 3 7-1 3-0
40 Miami FL ACC 5.78 10-5 65 28 50 -1 27 0 1 -3 4 0 2 6-1 3-0
41 Xavier BE 5.71 12-5 48 42 37 107 -2 15 0 1 -3 4 -1 4 8-0 3-0
42 Georgia SEC 5.66 9-5 63 43 75 -2 31 0 1 -3 4 -1 1 5-0 3-0
43 Houston AAC 5.64 12-4 28 35 56 39 1 72 0 0 -2 3 0 5 9-1 3-0
44 USC P12 5.56 13-3 71 31 42 1 33 1 1 0 4 1 5 9-0 5-0
45 Virginia ACC 5.51 11-4 57 27 65 85 1 68 0 1 1 4 3 3 7-3 4-0
46 Virginia Tech ACC 5.29 13-4 42 71 28 2 139 1 1 -2 4 0 2 9-0 7-0
47 Akron MAC 4.86 12-3 69 33 48 4 47 0 0 -3 0 -3 2 12-0 7-0
48 Utah P12 4.79 10-5 81 53 65 -1 60 0 1 -2 5 2 0 5-2 5-0
49 Liberty Asun 4.34 16-1 61 44 45 141 4 21 0 1 0 1 0 5 15-0 10-0
50 Yale Ivy 4.00 9-4 68 45 29 353 0 24 0 0 0 3 0 1 6-1 4-0
51 Stephen F. Austin Slnd 3.96 10-3 125 131 283 3 29 1 1 0 1 -1 1 9-1 7-1
52 UC Irvine BW 3.26 7-8 118 118 17 1 132 0 0 -1 2 -1 0 5-5 2-3
53 Radford BSth 3.19 6-7 131 111 137 3 106 0 1 0 1 -2 -5 5-4 4-0
54 New Mexico St. WAC 3.18 10-6 86 108 98 3 121 0 0 -1 2 -2 -1 8-2 5-0
55 Colgate Pat 3.09 12-4 126 96 83 4 110 0 1 0 1 -1 -1 11-2 10-1
56 Georgia St. SB 3.07 10-6 97 77 126 3 49 0 0 -2 0 -4 -3 10-2 7-0
57 Stony Brook AE 3.04 11-6 114 85 76 3 97 0 0 -2 1 -3 -4 10-2 9-0
58 Western Carolina SC 3.04 10-3 148 97 123 4 91 0 0 -3 0 -3 -2 10-0 9-0
59 Northern Colorado Bsky 3.03 8-5 122 133 131 2 137 0 0 -2 1 -2 -1 7-2 5-1
60 William & Mary CAA 3.01 12-5 127 89 80 5 116 0 0 -2 1 -1 -2 11-3 9-0
61 Wright St. Horz 2.10 13-4 108 163 173 4 164 0 0 0 0 -2 1 13-2 9-1
62 Quinnipiac MAAC 2.04 9-5 179 175 106 4 232 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 9-4 6-1
63 Charlotte CUSA 2.02 9-5 172 209 95 3 243 0 0 0 1 0 2 8-4 5-3
64 South Dakota St. Sum 2.00 11-7 144 171 162 3 202 0 0 -3 0 -4 -5 11-3 10-1
65 Murray St. OVC 2.00 9-5 141 252 193 4 290 0 0 0 0 -1 -5 9-4 9-0
66 Prairie View A&M SWAC 1.00 4-10 226 246 288 1 208 0 0 -3 0 -5 -9 4-5 4-1
67 Robert Morris NEC 1.00 7-9 222 255 153 4 308 0 0 -1 0 -2 -5 7-7 6-3
68 Norfolk St. MEAC 1.00 4-10 269 286 205 3 328 0 0 0 0 -1 -6 4-9 3-3

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 1-68 seed list in the 2020 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee.
  • RPI numbers may vary slightly from other published sites due to classification of certain games as neutral vs. home/road or vice versa.
  • The seed list is estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • The selection committee generates the seed list before placing teams in the familiar 1 to 16 seeds seen in the bracket. The seed list is used to balance the bracket and help with geographic placement.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • Shaded teams would have automatic berths if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The "points" column can roughly be used as a weighted estimate of that team's 1-16 seed, where a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.

Thanks to Jerry Palm for past RPI data and Ken Pomeroy for game data.