Selection Sunday 2017 is here!

Seeding

After selecting the 36 best at-large teams to go with the 32 automatic qualifiers (i.e., conference champions), the committee's second step is to "create a 'seed list' (i.e. rank of the teams in 'true seeds' 1 through 68)." The Crashing the Dance seeding model, like the selection model, attempts to predict how the committee will rank the teams in the seed list by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's relative rankings of those teams.

Each past team is assigned a number of seed points based on their actual seed, with better seeds getting more points. (For example, a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.) The profile of each team in this year's field is compared to those from the past to predict how many seed points (i.e., the average seed) a similar team would have received. We then rank each team by the seed points to obtain our 1 to 68 ranking.

See the seeding notes for more information.

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Seed Conf Points W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
1 Villanova BE 16.00 31-3 2 1 1 3 15 4 6 12 10 17 14 23 14-0 5-0
2 Kansas B12 15.95 28-4 6 3 3 6 13 8 6 8 6 16 12 22 12-0 2-0
3 Gonzaga WCC 15.91 32-1 1 2 8 12 19 5 6 6 6 12 11 17 20-0 14-0
4 North Carolina ACC 15.15 26-7 3 5 5 4 10 18 5 11 6 17 11 14 9-1 5-0
5 Kentucky SEC 15.10 29-5 5 6 4 1 17 25 2 7 3 18 13 20 11-0 4-0
6 Duke ACC 15.00 27-8 8 9 6 7 8 17 8 12 6 16 9 14 11-1 5-0
7 Oregon P12 15.00 28-5 13 7 9 5 15 27 2 4 1 17 13 16 11-1 7-0
8 Arizona P12 15.00 30-4 19 4 2 2 17 12 3 5 1 16 12 20 14-0 6-0
9 Florida St. ACC 15.00 25-8 20 17 13 10 6 24 6 11 7 16 10 11 9-2 6-0
10 Louisville ACC 14.63 24-8 7 11 7 18 5 2 4 7 -1 13 5 13 11-0 3-0
11 Florida SEC 14.38 24-8 10 16 10 16 9 7 1 6 -2 15 7 12 9-0 4-0
12 UCLA P12 13.96 29-4 15 8 16 11 12 28 3 6 2 12 8 14 17-0 11-0
13 Baylor B12 13.90 24-7 14 12 11 27 5 1 5 8 4 14 8 14 10-1 3-0
14 Butler BE 13.70 23-8 26 20 14 31 5 3 4 10 6 16 11 11 7-3 5-1
15 West Virginia B12 13.42 26-8 4 10 24 22 7 36 5 6 2 13 8 13 13-3 5-0
16 Purdue B10 13.24 25-7 12 13 19 15 9 41 1 5 0 12 6 13 13-1 5-0
17 Notre Dame ACC 13.08 25-9 22 14 23 14 7 58 4 8 0 13 5 8 12-1 8-0
18 Virginia ACC 13.01 22-10 9 21 18 24 4 20 4 6 -2 14 4 7 8-0 5-0
19 Iowa St. B12 12.30 23-10 17 24 21 9 9 94 3 7 0 11 2 8 12-1 5-0
20 Cincinnati AAC 11.94 29-4 18 18 12 13 16 13 2 3 0 6 2 17 23-0 8-0
21 Wisconsin B10 11.81 25-8 16 23 33 20 8 78 2 5 0 13 5 12 12-0 5-0
22 SMU AAC 11.77 29-4 21 15 15 8 18 59 1 1 -2 9 5 16 20-0 9-0
23 Minnesota B10 11.40 24-9 33 29 20 38 4 6 1 7 2 12 4 12 12-1 3-0
24 Creighton BE 11.16 24-9 27 33 25 35 3 16 2 6 1 10 2 10 14-1 5-0
25 Saint Mary's WCC 11.07 28-4 24 18 17 21 15 21 0 2 -2 8 4 12 20-0 12-0
26 Michigan B10 9.87 23-11 25 37 31 26 5 45 4 5 -2 12 1 7 11-0 5-0
27 Maryland B10 9.04 23-8 42 29 35 36 5 30 1 4 0 14 8 12 9-2 3-0
28 Arkansas SEC 8.99 25-9 36 34 27 41 7 14 0 4 -3 12 5 13 13-2 4-1
29 South Carolina SEC 8.91 21-10 31 27 43 43 5 47 1 4 -1 11 2 6 10-1 5-0
30 Vanderbilt SEC 8.74 19-15 43 41 38 34 3 50 4 6 -2 11 -3 3 8-1 2-1
31 Miami FL ACC 8.74 21-11 28 28 42 29 2 80 3 4 -6 8 -3 3 13-0 7-0
32 Rhode Island A10 8.71 24-9 49 30 33 11 34 3 3 0 9 2 10 15-2 6-1
33 Dayton A10 8.63 23-7 40 41 29 25 11 53 1 4 1 12 8 8 11-3 8-0
34 Xavier BE 8.62 21-13 32 37 51 1 11 2 4 -5 8 -5 4 13-0 4-0
35 Virginia Tech ACC 8.57 22-10 47 38 49 42 2 60 2 5 -3 11 2 4 11-1 8-0
36 Oklahoma St. B12 8.34 19-12 23 26 40 58 -1 19 1 3 -7 6 -5 4 13-1 3-0
37 Northwestern B10 8.29 23-11 39 29 50 47 3 39 0 5 -2 8 -3 7 15-0 5-0
38 VCU A10 8.18 26-8 48 22 17 11 46 0 3 -1 9 3 14 17-2 5-1
39 Michigan St. B10 7.97 19-14 37 51 44 2 64 2 6 -3 9 -3 1 10-2 4-0
40 Marquette BE 7.68 19-12 30 61 48 1 113 3 7 0 9 -1 0 10-2 7-0
41 Seton Hall BE 7.62 21-11 50 44 37 2 61 2 4 -3 9 -1 2 12-1 8-0
42 Wake Forest ACC 7.61 19-13 35 41 39 68 0 10 1 3 -7 8 -5 0 11-0 6-0
43 Kansas St. B12 7.14 20-13 34 57 54 -2 52 3 4 -5 6 -5 1 14-2 6-0
44 Providence BE 6.75 20-12 58 56 46 1 73 2 6 -2 8 -1 4 12-3 6-2
45 USC P12 6.49 24-9 55 32 41 69 2 9 2 2 -4 6 -2 4 18-1 11-0
46 Wichita St. MVC 6.24 29-4 11 22 32 19 19 98 0 2 -1 3 -1 11 26-0 14-0
47 Nevada MWC 5.88 28-6 56 41 28 32 13 31 0 0 -1 10 5 13 18-1 9-0
48 Middle Tennessee CUSA 5.61 29-4 60 25 36 45 19 26 0 2 1 4 3 12 25-3 14-1
49 UNC Wilmington CAA 5.22 27-5 68 38 26 40 15 23 0 0 -1 6 3 11 21-2 11-0
50 Vermont AE 4.22 28-5 75 35 46 30 19 84 0 0 -2 0 -4 11 28-1 12-0
51 East Tennessee St. SC 3.69 25-7 77 55 56 13 63 0 0 -2 2 -4 8 23-1 10-0
52 Princeton Ivy 3.66 22-6 74 47 28 16 100 0 0 -2 1 -4 1 21-1 15-0
53 New Mexico St. WAC 3.47 25-5 97 59 76 11 38 0 0 0 3 0 6 22-2 15-1
54 Bucknell Pat 3.22 26-8 94 64 72 15 76 0 1 -2 3 -2 0 23-3 19-1
55 Winthrop BSth 3.11 24-6 114 70 94 15 32 0 0 -2 3 0 5 21-3 15-2
56 Florida Gulf Coast Asun 2.92 23-7 113 85 109 13 86 0 1 -1 1 -2 -1 22-4 18-1
57 Iona MAAC 2.52 22-12 123 88 108 7 70 0 1 -3 1 -4 3 21-7 10-3
58 Northern Kentucky Horz 2.00 22-10 153 87 87 9 111 0 0 -1 1 -2 1 21-7 15-4
59 Kent St. MAC 1.98 21-13 138 142 89 6 232 0 0 0 2 1 2 19-12 10-4
60 Troy SB 1.90 19-14 163 159 97 5 272 0 1 -1 1 -2 -2 18-11 11-4
61 North Dakota Bsky 1.89 19-9 176 144 127 13 176 0 0 0 1 0 2 18-8 13-5
62 Jacksonville St. OVC 1.05 18-14 186 150 145 5 162 0 0 -1 1 -3 0 17-10 11-7
63 South Dakota St. Sum 1.01 16-16 180 154 144 3 170 0 0 -1 0 -3 -4 16-13 9-5
64 New Orleans Slnd 1.01 17-11 208 151 135 10 218 0 0 -3 0 -3 -2 17-8 12-4
65 UC Davis BW 1.00 20-12 200 166 143 9 183 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 20-11 17-6
66 North Carolina Central MEAC 1.00 22-8 179 201 227 13 153 0 0 0 1 0 -3 21-7 21-4
67 Texas Southern SWAC 1.00 23-11 204 104 151 17 79 0 0 -5 0 -6 -7 23-5 21-2
68 Mount St. Mary's NEC 1.00 19-15 216 149 152 13 188 0 0 -6 0 -8 -9 19-7 18-5

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 1-68 seed list in the 2017 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee.
  • RPI numbers may vary slightly from other published sites due to classification of certain games as neutral vs. home/road or vice versa.
  • The seed list is estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • The selection committee generates the seed list before placing teams in the familiar 1 to 16 seeds seen in the bracket. The seed list is used to balance the bracket and help with geographic placement.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • Shaded teams would have automatic berths if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The "points" column can roughly be used as a weighted estimate of that team's 1-16 seed, where a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.

Thanks to Jerry Palm for past RPI data and Ken Pomeroy for game data.