Selection Sunday 2023 is here!

Seeding

After selecting the 36 best at-large teams to go with the 32 automatic qualifiers (i.e., conference champions), the committee's second step is to "create a 'seed list' (i.e. rank of the teams in 'true seeds' 1 through 68)." The Crashing the Dance seeding model, like the selection model, attempts to predict how the committee will rank the teams in the seed list by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's relative rankings of those teams.

Each past team is assigned a number of seed points based on their actual seed, with better seeds getting more points. (For example, a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.) The profile of each team in this year's field is compared to those from the past to predict how many seed points (i.e., the average seed) a similar team would have received. We then rank each team by the seed points to obtain our 1 to 68 ranking.

See the seeding notes for more information.

Rank Conf Sparklines Q1 Q12 Q123 Q34 Q4
Seed Conf Points W-L NET Sag. Pom. BPI SOR +/- W +/- W +/- +/-
1 Alabama SEC 15.97 28-5 2 3 3 3 2 16 12 7 18 13 20 10-0 3-0
2 UCLA P12 15.97 29-5 3 2 2 4 5 17 8 3 17 12 17 12-0 7-0
3 Houston AAC 15.93 31-2 1 1 1 1 4 18 7 6 15 14 20 16-1 9-0
4 Kansas B12 15.88 27-7 9 4 9 9 1 9 17 10 21 14 17 6-0 3-0
5 Purdue B10 15.57 28-5 5 10 5 7 3 12 9 5 18 13 18 10-0 5-0
6 Texas B12 15.00 26-8 7 7 7 5 6 9 14 6 18 10 11 8-0 7-0
7 Gonzaga WCC 14.97 27-5 6 5 8 8 9 14 6 2 11 7 14 16-1 8-0
8 Marquette BE 14.76 28-6 12 15 12 13 7 17 7 2 13 8 14 15-1 8-0
9 Arizona P12 14.74 28-6 10 8 10 10 8 11 9 7 16 10 15 12-0 7-0
10 Connecticut BE 13.98 25-8 8 6 4 6 12 6 6 0 12 5 9 13-1 8-0
11 Tennessee SEC 13.58 23-10 4 9 6 2 23 4 7 0 10 0 6 13-0 7-0
12 Xavier BE 13.43 25-9 22 13 16 21 11 11 8 2 13 6 8 12-2 8-0
13 Baylor B12 12.72 22-10 15 12 15 12 10 3 11 1 15 5 5 7-0 7-0
14 Kansas St. B12 12.63 23-9 23 25 24 29 14 3 9 1 13 4 7 10-0 7-0
15 Texas A&M SEC 12.56 25-8 18 18 19 15 18 14 7 2 12 6 12 13-2 7-2
16 Duke ACC 12.52 26-8 16 14 21 17 16 11 5 -1 12 4 8 14-0 10-0
17 Indiana B10 12.43 22-11 30 16 30 18 20 4 6 -3 12 1 5 10-0 6-0
18 San Diego St. MWC 12.31 26-6 14 30 14 24 13 15 5 0 11 5 18 15-0 2-0
19 TCU B12 11.23 21-12 28 20 26 28 24 0 8 -3 13 2 2 8-1 8-1
20 Virginia ACC 11.20 25-7 26 23 34 22 17 11 5 0 11 5 9 14-1 9-0
21 Florida Atlantic CUSA 10.96 29-3 13 50 25 35 21 19 2 1 6 3 14 23-0 12-0
22 Memphis AAC 10.88 25-8 29 31 28 31 22 10 3 -1 12 5 11 13-1 6-0
23 Kentucky SEC 10.56 21-11 25 19 27 16 28 5 6 -1 12 4 5 9-3 6-1
24 Saint Mary's WCC 10.00 25-7 11 17 11 19 32 12 2 -1 9 4 13 16-2 5-0
25 Nevada MWC 9.97 21-10 37 85 41 69 53 5 4 -1 7 -1 8 14-2 3-0
26 Miami FL ACC 9.85 25-7 35 36 39 36 19 10 5 0 11 6 12 14-2 7-1
27 Iowa St. B12 9.60 19-13 20 32 23 25 26 0 10 -1 12 -1 0 7-0 6-0
28 USC P12 9.48 22-10 50 37 36 54 38 7 3 -3 10 2 7 12-2 6-1
29 Missouri SEC 9.34 24-9 42 51 51 59 15 4 6 -3 10 1 7 14-0 8-0
30 Utah St. MWC 9.33 25-8 19 33 18 42 34 9 2 -3 11 5 18 14-2 1-2
31 West Virginia B12 9.06 19-14 24 21 17 23 30 -4 6 -7 12 -2 -1 7-0 6-0
32 Michigan St. B10 8.52 19-12 33 28 32 37 25 2 5 -4 12 1 3 7-1 4-0
33 Northwestern B10 8.49 21-11 41 40 42 41 29 3 7 1 11 0 1 10-0 9-0
34 Maryland B10 8.24 21-12 31 24 22 20 35 2 3 -7 9 -3 0 12-0 9-0
35 Iowa B10 8.20 19-13 39 29 37 32 46 1 4 -3 13 3 2 6-3 5-1
36 Arkansas SEC 8.10 20-13 21 22 20 14 42 -2 4 -6 8 -4 5 12-1 2-0
37 Creighton BE 8.06 21-12 17 11 13 11 31 8 3 -5 9 -2 3 12-1 6-0
38 Boise St. MWC 8.05 23-9 27 56 31 47 39 8 3 -2 12 5 9 11-2 5-0
39 Auburn SEC 8.02 20-12 32 27 29 27 33 1 3 -7 9 -2 5 11-1 3-0
40 Illinois B10 7.96 20-12 34 26 33 30 37 1 2 -9 9 -3 1 11-0 7-0
41 Mississippi St. SEC 7.83 21-12 48 54 49 44 41 -2 4 -4 8 -3 1 13-1 8-0
42 Penn St. B10 7.69 22-12 49 45 43 49 27 3 7 1 12 1 4 10-1 6-0
43 Rutgers B10 7.40 19-14 40 39 35 26 57 0 4 -3 10 0 -2 9-4 7-0
44 Oklahoma St. B12 7.18 18-15 43 43 38 33 44 -2 6 -6 10 -4 -2 8-1 5-0
45 Arizona St. P12 7.00 22-12 66 66 68 75 47 3 5 -1 9 -2 3 13-1 8-1
46 N.C. State ACC 6.19 23-10 45 46 55 46 40 4 1 -5 8 -2 3 15-0 10-0
47 Oral Roberts Sum 5.09 26-4 36 75 56 84 43 21 0 -4 1 -3 3 25-0 19-0
48 Charleston CAA 5.00 30-3 51 70 74 63 36 17 0 -1 2 1 11 28-2 16-0
49 VCU A10 4.74 26-7 58 52 67 61 51 14 1 0 4 -1 11 22-2 10-2
50 Drake MVC 4.04 26-7 54 57 66 55 60 13 1 0 4 0 7 22-3 12-0
51 Kent St. MAC 3.97 26-6 57 76 71 74 49 15 0 -3 2 -2 8 24-2 13-1
52 Grand Canyon WAC 3.46 21-11 104 121 109 93 105 7 1 -1 3 0 1 18-8 10-1
53 Montana St. Bsky 3.43 23-9 103 132 110 108 99 15 0 -2 2 -1 0 21-6 15-1
54 UC Santa Barbara BW 3.23 25-7 100 110 102 124 90 13 0 0 3 2 6 22-6 13-1
55 Iona MAAC 3.22 27-7 59 83 75 53 81 17 0 -1 0 -3 2 27-4 20-2
56 Louisiana SB 3.09 23-7 89 98 92 99 67 11 0 -2 1 -4 5 22-2 12-1
57 Kennesaw St. Asun 3.07 23-8 114 148 127 134 75 15 0 -4 2 -2 4 21-4 13-2
58 Colgate Pat 3.00 25-8 101 107 113 98 110 19 0 -1 1 0 -3 24-7 22-2
59 Princeton Ivy 2.88 18-8 116 118 116 117 106 7 0 -1 1 -2 3 17-5 9-2
60 Furman SC 2.72 24-7 88 79 89 92 88 15 0 -2 1 -1 5 23-5 14-2
61 UNC Asheville BSth 2.62 25-7 140 154 146 136 82 17 1 -1 1 -1 1 24-5 20-3
62 Northern Kentucky Horz 1.26 20-12 154 158 161 148 136 11 0 -2 1 -4 -3 19-7 14-3
63 Vermont AE 1.19 22-10 109 105 112 96 104 15 0 -3 1 -5 -3 21-4 16-1
64 Texas A&M Corpus Chris Slnd 1.00 19-10 174 199 170 211 179 12 0 -3 0 -3 -3 19-7 18-6
65 Texas Southern SWAC 1.00 12-20 292 292 285 293 299 -1 0 -4 1 -6 -7 11-13 10-11
66 Fairleigh Dickinson NEC 1.00 15-14 307 307 312 290 283 4 0 -1 0 -1 -2 15-13 14-11
67 Southeast Missouri St. OVC 1.00 17-16 242 256 257 256 254 6 0 -3 0 -3 -5 17-13 15-9
68 Howard MEAC 1.00 19-12 214 224 215 224 166 11 0 -3 0 -3 -5 19-9 15-3

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 1-68 seed list in the 2023 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee.
  • The seed list is estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • The selection committee generates the seed list before placing teams in the familiar 1 to 16 seeds seen in the bracket. The seed list is used to balance the bracket and help with geographic placement.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • Shaded teams would have automatic berths if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The "points" column can roughly be used as a weighted estimate of that team's 1-16 seed, where a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.

Thanks to Jerry Palm for past RPI data and Ken Pomeroy for game data.