17 days 3 hours to Selection Sunday 2017

Seeding

After selecting the 36 best at-large teams to go with the 32 automatic qualifiers (i.e., conference champions), the committee's second step is to "create a 'seed list' (i.e. rank of the teams in 'true seeds' 1 through 68)." The Crashing the Dance seeding model, like the selection model, attempts to predict how the committee will rank the teams in the seed list by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's relative rankings of those teams.

Each past team is assigned a number of seed points based on their actual seed, with better seeds getting more points. (For example, a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.) The profile of each team in this year's field is compared to those from the past to predict how many seed points (i.e., the average seed) a similar team would have received. We then rank each team by the seed points to obtain our 1 to 68 ranking.

See the seeding notes for more information.

Rank Conf N/C Sparklines 1-25 1-50 1-100 1-200 101+ 201+
Seed Conf Points W-L Sag. Poll RPI RPI +/- RPI W W +/- W +/- +/-
1 Villanova BE 15.99 26-3 4 2 2 6 10 4 4 9 7 15 12 19 11-0 4-0
2 Kansas B12 15.97 25-3 6 3 1 1 11 7 4 7 5 15 12 20 10-0 2-0
3 Gonzaga WCC 15.95 28-0 1 1 7 12 16 5 4 5 5 10 10 17 18-0 11-0
4 North Carolina ACC 15.59 23-5 3 8 3 3 9 11 4 9 6 14 9 13 9-0 5-0
5 Oregon P12 15.00 24-4 12 7 4 2 12 22 2 6 4 14 11 14 10-1 6-0
6 Florida SEC 14.98 23-5 8 12 8 7 11 8 1 5 0 15 10 13 8-0 5-0
7 Butler BE 14.93 22-6 23 22 11 23 6 2 5 9 7 16 12 12 6-2 5-1
8 Kentucky SEC 14.91 23-5 5 10 10 5 11 21 1 5 1 13 8 14 10-0 4-0
9 Duke ACC 14.88 22-6 9 11 12 15 5 13 3 9 5 13 8 11 9-1 5-0
10 Baylor B12 14.87 22-5 16 9 5 21 5 1 4 8 5 13 9 14 9-1 3-0
11 Louisville ACC 14.83 22-6 7 6 6 13 5 3 3 6 0 12 6 13 10-0 3-0
12 Arizona P12 14.44 25-3 20 4 9 4 13 18 1 5 2 11 8 16 14-0 6-0
13 Florida St. ACC 14.32 22-6 17 20 13 10 5 26 5 9 7 12 7 10 10-1 6-0
14 Purdue B10 13.89 23-5 11 14 17 9 9 38 2 6 3 12 8 13 11-1 5-0
15 UCLA P12 13.72 24-3 14 5 18 16 8 28 2 4 1 10 7 12 14-0 9-0
16 Wisconsin B10 13.50 22-5 13 15 23 11 8 63 2 2 -2 13 8 12 9-0 5-0
17 West Virginia B12 12.83 22-6 2 13 30 25 5 45 3 5 3 9 6 11 13-3 5-0
18 Virginia ACC 12.48 18-9 10 19 20 26 1 24 2 6 -1 10 1 4 8-0 5-0
19 Cincinnati AAC 12.16 24-3 18 16 14 19 12 17 2 3 0 6 3 13 18-0 8-0
20 Creighton BE 12.07 21-6 22 23 26 40 3 9 4 5 2 10 4 11 11-0 4-0
21 Notre Dame ACC 12.07 21-7 25 17 27 14 5 56 2 6 0 9 2 8 12-0 6-0
22 Minnesota B10 11.98 21-7 33 16 31 3 6 2 6 1 11 4 11 10-0 3-0
23 Saint Mary's WCC 11.72 24-3 26 18 15 22 12 20 1 2 -1 7 4 13 17-0 8-0
24 SMU AAC 11.29 24-4 24 21 19 8 13 57 1 1 -1 8 4 11 16-0 9-0
25 Maryland B10 10.58 21-6 37 24 21 24 5 29 1 3 0 13 7 12 8-0 3-0
26 South Carolina SEC 9.64 19-8 29 26 29 28 5 46 1 3 -2 11 4 7 8-1 4-0
27 Oklahoma St. B12 9.30 18-9 21 28 44 1 14 0 3 -4 7 -1 6 11-1 3-0
28 Iowa St. B12 9.23 18-9 19 29 38 20 5 113 1 3 -3 6 -1 4 12-2 5-0
29 Miami FL ACC 9.21 19-8 28 30 37 29 3 79 2 3 -4 7 -1 5 12-0 6-0
30 Dayton A10 9.19 21-5 34 33 24 17 11 48 0 3 0 10 6 9 11-1 7-0
31 Xavier BE 9.04 18-10 30 30 22 35 1 10 0 3 -4 9 0 6 9-1 2-0
32 Northwestern B10 8.88 20-8 40 28 43 42 3 41 2 3 -3 8 0 6 12-0 6-0
33 VCU A10 8.88 23-5 43 35 25 18 11 42 1 2 1 7 4 13 16-2 5-0
34 Michigan B10 8.74 18-10 27 51 49 1 52 2 3 -4 10 1 3 8-1 5-0
35 Virginia Tech ACC 8.67 19-8 48 36 32 1 65 2 2 -4 11 4 4 8-1 7-0
36 Arkansas SEC 8.35 21-7 42 33 56 5 12 0 3 -2 10 5 11 11-2 4-1
37 Michigan St. B10 8.12 16-11 45 46 36 2 72 2 4 -2 8 -2 1 8-1 4-0
38 USC P12 7.87 21-6 57 27 32 51 2 16 2 2 -3 5 -1 7 16-0 8-0
39 Vanderbilt SEC 7.67 15-13 53 47 50 1 49 1 4 -2 10 -2 1 5-1 2-1
40 Marquette BE 7.37 17-10 32 69 47 1 130 2 5 0 8 -1 -1 9-1 8-0
41 Providence BE 6.99 17-11 58 54 39 -1 83 2 6 -1 9 1 3 8-3 5-2
42 Seton Hall BE 6.91 17-10 52 48 58 -1 47 1 4 -2 7 -2 0 10-1 7-0
43 Clemson ACC 6.43 14-13 41 65 84 -7 35 0 4 -6 9 -3 -3 5-1 4-0
44 Wake Forest ACC 6.39 16-12 39 40 82 -2 15 0 1 -8 6 -6 -1 10-0 5-0
45 Middle Tennessee CUSA 6.19 23-4 60 32 31 45 13 25 0 2 1 4 3 10 19-3 10-1
46 Syracuse ACC 6.13 17-12 38 78 34 2 179 3 6 0 8 -1 1 9-3 5-1
47 Wichita St. MVC 5.70 25-4 15 25 42 30 15 106 0 1 -3 2 -2 9 23-0 12-0
48 UT Arlington SB 5.18 19-6 83 35 65 8 19 1 1 -1 2 -1 6 17-3 8-1
49 Nevada MWC 5.15 22-6 66 39 48 7 32 0 0 -1 5 2 8 17-3 8-0
50 UNC Wilmington CAA 5.04 22-5 67 41 62 10 30 0 0 -1 4 1 7 18-2 10-0
51 Princeton Ivy 3.69 16-6 82 55 33 10 103 0 0 -3 1 -3 1 15-2 9-0
52 Valparaiso Horz 3.49 22-6 91 73 92 10 61 0 1 -1 3 1 1 19-4 15-0
53 Vermont AE 3.49 24-5 84 50 41 15 82 0 0 -2 0 -4 8 24-1 11-0
54 Monmouth MAAC 3.45 24-5 87 44 61 14 31 0 0 -2 1 -2 6 23-2 14-1
55 Belmont OVC 3.20 20-5 95 62 64 13 81 0 0 -4 0 -4 4 20-1 12-1
56 Akron MAC 3.14 21-6 98 56 55 9 68 0 0 -2 0 -2 9 21-4 9-3
57 Bucknell Pat 3.06 22-8 103 86 96 11 92 0 1 -1 2 -1 1 20-5 13-0
58 UNC Asheville BSth 3.02 20-7 113 68 94 12 40 0 0 -2 2 -3 0 18-2 14-1
59 Cal St. Bakersfield WAC 3.02 16-7 111 80 43 9 163 0 0 -2 2 -2 -2 14-3 12-1
60 Florida Gulf Coast Asun 2.93 19-7 118 83 120 9 69 0 1 -2 1 -2 -1 18-4 14-1
61 Furman SC 2.55 18-10 124 98 77 9 155 0 0 0 2 -4 -1 16-4 11-2
62 North Dakota St. Sum 2.01 17-9 146 100 111 7 98 0 0 -2 1 -1 -1 16-7 11-2
63 Weber St. Bsky 1.04 14-9 166 192 163 8 227 0 0 0 0 -2 -5 14-7 12-2
64 UC Irvine BW 1.02 14-13 139 157 201 5 124 0 0 -4 0 -7 -7 14-6 13-5
65 North Carolina Central MEAC 1.01 18-6 171 188 218 11 153 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 18-5 17-2
66 New Orleans Slnd 1.00 13-9 219 158 145 8 212 0 0 -3 0 -3 -5 13-6 11-2
67 Texas Southern SWAC 1.00 16-11 201 129 200 10 73 0 0 -5 0 -6 -7 16-5 14-2
68 Mount St. Mary's NEC 1.00 15-14 217 147 151 10 193 0 0 -5 0 -7 -10 15-7 14-3

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 1-68 seed list in the 2017 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee.
  • RPI numbers may vary slightly from other published sites due to classification of certain games as neutral vs. home/road or vice versa.
  • The seed list is estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • The selection committee generates the seed list before placing teams in the familiar 1 to 16 seeds seen in the bracket. The seed list is used to balance the bracket and help with geographic placement.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • Shaded teams would have automatic berths if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The "points" column can roughly be used as a weighted estimate of that team's 1-16 seed, where a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.

Thanks to Jerry Palm for past RPI data and Ken Pomeroy for game data.