15 days 2 hours to Selection Sunday 2024

Seeding

After selecting the 36 best at-large teams to go with the 32 automatic qualifiers (i.e., conference champions), the committee's second step is to "create a 'seed list' (i.e. rank of the teams in 'true seeds' 1 through 68)." The Crashing the Dance seeding model, like the selection model, attempts to predict how the committee will rank the teams in the seed list by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's relative rankings of those teams.

Each past team is assigned a number of seed points based on their actual seed, with better seeds getting more points. (For example, a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.) The profile of each team in this year's field is compared to those from the past to predict how many seed points (i.e., the average seed) a similar team would have received. We then rank each team by the seed points to obtain our 1 to 68 ranking.

See the seeding notes for more information.

Rank Conf Sparklines Q1 Q12 Q123 Q34 Q4
Seed Conf Points W-L NET Pom. BPI SOR +/- W +/- W +/- +/-
1 Purdue B10 16.00 25-3 2 2 2 1 11 9 6 15 12 19 10-0 3-0
2 Houston B12 16.00 25-3 1 1 1 2 9 8 5 14 11 15 11-0 7-0
3 Connecticut BE 16.00 25-3 4 3 4 3 13 9 6 14 11 13 11-0 9-0
4 Arizona P12 14.83 22-6 3 4 3 11 9 8 5 12 7 14 10-1 2-0
5 Tennessee SEC 14.76 22-6 5 5 5 4 9 5 0 11 5 11 11-0 5-0
6 Iowa St. B12 14.11 22-6 8 10 8 7 7 5 1 11 5 7 11-0 9-0
7 Marquette BE 14.00 22-6 11 11 12 5 9 6 1 12 6 10 10-0 6-0
8 Duke ACC 13.99 22-6 13 8 9 13 9 6 3 9 4 10 13-1 6-0
9 North Carolina ACC 13.98 22-6 9 9 13 6 11 7 3 12 7 11 10-1 5-0
10 Kansas B12 13.80 20-7 17 16 16 8 3 6 0 12 6 9 8-1 4-0
11 Alabama SEC 13.70 20-8 6 7 6 9 9 3 -4 11 3 9 9-0 3-0
12 Baylor B12 13.41 19-8 14 14 14 10 3 6 -1 11 3 6 8-0 5-0
13 BYU B12 13.00 20-8 10 15 17 22 1 5 -1 9 1 3 11-0 9-0
14 Illinois B10 12.99 21-7 16 13 11 14 7 4 -1 9 2 9 12-0 5-0
15 Auburn SEC 12.79 21-7 7 6 7 15 5 1 -6 8 1 9 13-0 5-0
16 Creighton BE 12.74 21-8 12 12 10 17 6 6 1 13 5 6 8-0 7-0
17 Dayton A10 12.57 22-5 21 25 27 16 9 3 -1 8 3 10 14-0 7-0
18 Wisconsin B10 11.90 18-10 22 23 22 23 3 6 0 12 2 4 6-0 4-0
19 San Diego St. MWC 11.61 20-7 18 19 32 24 6 4 -3 8 1 7 12-0 6-0
20 Clemson ACC 11.43 20-8 23 24 21 21 3 5 1 9 3 7 11-2 5-0
21 Kentucky SEC 11.08 20-8 20 18 20 20 5 5 0 7 0 6 13-1 6-0
22 Florida SEC 10.73 20-8 34 28 28 18 5 3 -4 6 -2 6 14-0 6-0
23 Northwestern B10 10.66 20-8 48 42 37 19 5 5 0 10 3 7 10-1 6-1
24 South Carolina SEC 9.81 23-5 47 46 54 12 7 3 0 9 6 9 14-2 9-0
25 Texas B12 9.26 18-10 33 26 24 29 -1 5 -2 7 -2 0 11-1 8-0
26 Texas Tech B12 9.00 19-9 42 36 33 30 1 4 -3 7 -2 2 12-0 8-0
27 Mississippi St. SEC 8.98 19-9 31 27 31 35 1 4 -2 7 0 6 12-2 5-1
28 Oklahoma B12 8.98 19-9 41 39 34 27 -1 4 -3 7 -2 2 12-0 8-0
29 Michigan St. B10 8.93 17-11 24 21 19 45 1 4 -3 8 -3 2 9-0 4-0
30 TCU B12 8.93 19-9 38 30 26 28 1 3 -5 7 -2 2 12-0 8-0
31 Colorado St. MWC 8.92 18-9 29 33 67 47 0 5 -1 8 0 5 10-1 4-0
32 Utah St. MWC 8.86 21-5 35 43 65 25 7 4 0 8 3 8 13-0 8-0
33 Washington St. P12 8.63 22-7 39 41 40 26 8 6 3 9 3 8 13-1 7-0
34 Gonzaga WCC 8.53 22-6 19 17 18 34 11 2 -3 4 -2 3 18-0 13-0
35 Nevada MWC 8.43 22-6 37 40 55 36 5 6 2 7 2 7 15-1 9-0
36 Boise St. MWC 7.98 18-8 26 37 38 50 7 5 1 7 0 3 11-1 7-0
37 Nebraska B10 7.85 20-9 43 38 39 31 2 4 -3 7 -2 4 13-0 7-0
38 Saint Mary's WCC 7.67 23-6 15 20 15 46 15 4 2 7 3 4 16-2 13-0
39 Providence BE 7.46 18-10 56 55 47 41 1 5 -2 8 -2 -2 10-0 10-0
40 St. John's BE 7.28 17-12 40 32 30 44 0 4 -5 9 -2 0 8-1 5-0
41 Florida Atlantic AAC 6.67 21-7 36 35 29 42 7 1 -1 7 2 10 14-2 6-2
42 Virginia ACC 6.31 21-8 46 63 46 32 6 3 -2 7 -1 7 14-0 6-0
43 Utah P12 6.30 17-11 50 49 57 55 -1 4 -3 8 -2 1 9-1 5-0
44 Wake Forest ACC 6.04 18-10 27 22 23 49 3 1 -4 6 -4 2 12-0 6-0
45 McNeese St. Slnd 5.38 21-3 55 69 56 53 13 1 1 3 1 4 18-1 15-1
46 Indiana St. MVC 5.32 24-5 28 45 41 38 13 1 -2 5 1 9 19-1 11-1
47 Princeton Ivy 4.64 19-3 52 62 51 33 7 0 0 3 0 8 16-0 8-0
48 Grand Canyon WAC 4.49 24-4 54 64 69 51 12 1 0 3 1 6 21-2 14-0
49 Samford SC 4.45 23-5 77 85 93 73 11 0 -2 2 0 5 21-3 13-0
50 Richmond A10 4.25 21-7 71 73 72 62 11 1 -2 6 1 6 15-2 8-0
51 Appalachian St. SB 4.18 23-5 73 81 74 65 13 2 2 3 2 6 20-4 13-1
52 South Florida AAC 4.13 21-5 85 94 100 57 13 1 1 5 2 9 16-2 9-2
53 Charleston CAA 3.03 22-7 102 106 103 82 11 0 -1 1 -2 2 21-4 13-0
54 Vermont AE 3.02 21-6 100 96 82 72 12 0 -2 1 -1 3 20-4 13-1
55 Louisiana Tech CUSA 3.00 18-8 83 82 81 98 8 0 -3 1 -4 -1 17-3 11-0
56 UC Irvine BW 2.99 20-8 79 77 80 96 11 0 -3 1 -4 0 19-3 13-1
57 Akron MAC 2.81 18-8 99 100 91 99 9 0 -2 1 -4 -2 17-3 12-0
58 Morehead St. OVC 2.08 18-8 116 124 102 118 9 0 -2 0 -4 -4 18-4 16-2
59 Oakland Horz 2.00 19-11 131 133 134 114 9 1 -3 2 -3 -4 17-6 12-0
60 High Point BSth 2.00 22-6 108 111 113 97 11 0 0 0 -1 4 22-5 14-2
61 Colgate Pat 1.76 20-9 132 145 111 120 13 0 -2 1 -4 -3 19-4 17-3
62 Eastern Washington Bsky 1.37 17-10 130 134 127 127 10 0 -4 0 -7 -4 17-3 13-2
63 South Dakota St. Sum 1.08 15-12 159 155 165 191 7 0 -1 0 -3 -1 15-9 10-6
64 Norfolk St. MEAC 1.01 15-9 225 245 200 148 7 1 0 1 -1 -3 14-7 12-3
65 Merrimack NEC 1.00 17-10 191 190 195 155 11 0 -3 0 -5 -5 17-5 15-3
66 Fairfield MAAC 1.00 17-10 161 168 158 157 7 0 0 1 -1 -2 16-8 14-5
67 Grambling St. SWAC 1.00 11-13 290 283 303 214 8 0 -6 0 -7 -7 11-6 10-5
68 Eastern Kentucky Asun 1.00 14-12 194 187 171 185 9 0 -2 0 -4 -7 14-8 13-4

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 1-68 seed list in the 2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee.
  • The seed list is estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • The selection committee generates the seed list before placing teams in the familiar 1 to 16 seeds seen in the bracket. The seed list is used to balance the bracket and help with geographic placement.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • Shaded teams would have automatic berths if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The "points" column can roughly be used as a weighted estimate of that team's 1-16 seed, where a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.

Thanks to Jerry Palm for past RPI data and Ken Pomeroy for game data.