After selecting the 36 best at-large teams to go with the 32 automatic qualifiers (i.e., conference champions), the committee's second step is to "create a 'seed list' (i.e. rank of the teams in 'true seeds' 1 through 68)." The Crashing the Dance seeding model, like the selection model, attempts to predict how the committee will rank the teams in the seed list by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's relative rankings of those teams.
Each past team is assigned a number of seed points based on their actual seed, with better seeds getting more points. (For example, a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.) The profile of each team in this year's field is compared to those from the past to predict how many seed points (i.e., the average seed) a similar team would have received. We then rank each team by the seed points to obtain our 1 to 68 ranking.
See the seeding notes for more information.
Rank | Conf | Sparklines | Q1 | Q12 | Q123 | Q34 | Q4 | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seed | Conf | Points | W-L | NET | Sag. | Pom. | BPI | SOR | +/- | W | +/- | W | +/- | +/- | ||||
1 | Kansas | B12 | 15.99 | 28-6 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 20 | 14 | 19 | 8-0 | 3-0 | |
2 | Gonzaga | WCC | 15.86 | 26-3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 14-0 | 13-0 | |
3 | Arizona | P12 | 15.46 | 31-3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 21 | 16-0 | 7-0 | |
4 | Baylor | B12 | 15.12 | 26-6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 12 | 14 | 8-0 | 6-0 | |
5 | Tennessee | SEC | 14.98 | 25-7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 12 | 10-0 | 6-0 | |
6 | Kentucky | SEC | 14.93 | 26-7 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 11 | 12-0 | 8-0 | |
7 | Houston | AAC | 14.83 | 28-5 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 0 | -4 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 18-0 | 8-0 | |
8 | Auburn | SEC | 14.82 | 27-5 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 18 | 12-0 | 4-0 | |
9 | Villanova | BE | 14.65 | 26-7 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 8 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 15 | 9-0 | 4-0 | |
10 | Purdue | B10 | 14.24 | 27-6 | 11 | 7 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 13-0 | 6-0 | |
11 | UCLA | P12 | 13.99 | 25-7 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 12-1 | 4-0 | |
12 | Duke | ACC | 13.53 | 28-6 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 16-1 | 8-0 | |
13 | Texas Tech | B12 | 13.43 | 25-9 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 10-0 | 9-0 | |
14 | Wisconsin | B10 | 13.38 | 24-7 | 24 | 22 | 34 | 27 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 11 | 13 | 8-2 | 4-0 | |
15 | Connecticut | BE | 12.88 | 23-9 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 17 | 23 | 7 | 5 | -1 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 10-0 | 7-0 | |
16 | Iowa | B10 | 12.54 | 25-9 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 7 | 3 | -3 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 14-0 | 7-0 | |
17 | Arkansas | SEC | 12.43 | 25-8 | 20 | 17 | 20 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 13-1 | 7-0 | |
18 | Saint Mary's | WCC | 11.82 | 24-7 | 19 | 21 | 16 | 24 | 24 | 9 | 4 | -3 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 14-0 | 9-0 | |
19 | Illinois | B10 | 11.72 | 22-9 | 15 | 15 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 10-0 | 4-0 | |
20 | LSU | SEC | 11.63 | 22-11 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 16 | 26 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 11-1 | 5-0 | |
21 | Ohio St. | B10 | 10.90 | 19-11 | 26 | 23 | 32 | 23 | 35 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 9-1 | 3-0 | |
22 | Alabama | SEC | 10.69 | 19-13 | 30 | 24 | 25 | 21 | 29 | -1 | 8 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6-2 | 1-0 | |
23 | Michigan St. | B10 | 10.55 | 22-12 | 36 | 28 | 40 | 32 | 22 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 9-1 | 3-0 | |
24 | San Diego St. | MWC | 10.00 | 23-8 | 25 | 31 | 22 | 30 | 40 | 10 | 5 | -3 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 13-0 | 7-0 | |
25 | Boise St. | MWC | 9.97 | 26-7 | 29 | 38 | 28 | 55 | 34 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 13-1 | 6-1 | |
26 | Providence | BE | 9.87 | 25-5 | 33 | 35 | 49 | 43 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 11-0 | 5-0 | |
27 | Seton Hall | BE | 9.85 | 20-10 | 37 | 32 | 36 | 36 | 32 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 9 | -1 | 7 | 11-0 | 3-0 | |
28 | TCU | B12 | 9.73 | 20-12 | 45 | 44 | 39 | 45 | 27 | -2 | 8 | 0 | 10 | -2 | 2 | 10-0 | 6-0 | |
29 | Texas | B12 | 9.44 | 21-11 | 17 | 18 | 15 | 18 | 25 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 | -1 | 2 | 11-0 | 8-0 | |
30 | North Carolina | ACC | 9.41 | 24-9 | 32 | 26 | 29 | 26 | 18 | 10 | 3 | -5 | 6 | -2 | 11 | 18-1 | 5-1 | |
31 | USC | P12 | 9.35 | 26-7 | 35 | 29 | 43 | 40 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 17-2 | 6-0 | |
32 | Murray St. | OVC | 8.99 | 27-2 | 21 | 68 | 27 | 29 | 21 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 22-1 | 17-0 | |
33 | Marquette | BE | 8.97 | 19-12 | 43 | 49 | 47 | 54 | 42 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 10 | -2 | 2 | 9-0 | 5-0 | |
34 | Creighton | BE | 8.79 | 22-11 | 55 | 45 | 53 | 69 | 36 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 11-1 | 5-0 | |
35 | Colorado St. | MWC | 8.54 | 24-5 | 28 | 37 | 31 | 81 | 28 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 11-1 | 8-0 | |
36 | Texas A&M | SEC | 8.29 | 22-11 | 42 | 50 | 42 | 41 | 33 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 13-2 | 8-0 | |
37 | Virginia Tech | ACC | 8.24 | 23-12 | 27 | 27 | 23 | 19 | 44 | 6 | 3 | -2 | 9 | -1 | 4 | 14-2 | 7-0 | |
38 | San Francisco | WCC | 8.19 | 23-9 | 22 | 33 | 21 | 31 | 51 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 14-1 | 9-1 | |
39 | Davidson | A10 | 7.67 | 26-5 | 38 | 54 | 35 | 50 | 30 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 20-1 | 11-0 | |
40 | Memphis | AAC | 7.23 | 21-9 | 31 | 20 | 26 | 22 | 39 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 13-2 | 5-0 | |
41 | Iowa St. | B12 | 7.15 | 20-12 | 49 | 60 | 48 | 53 | 31 | -5 | 9 | 1 | 10 | -2 | 0 | 10-0 | 8-0 | |
42 | Indiana | B10 | 6.94 | 20-13 | 39 | 30 | 38 | 33 | 48 | -1 | 4 | -4 | 8 | -4 | 0 | 12-1 | 7-0 | |
43 | Miami FL | ACC | 6.50 | 23-10 | 62 | 64 | 62 | 56 | 37 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 14-3 | 5-0 | |
44 | Michigan | B10 | 6.49 | 17-14 | 34 | 25 | 33 | 28 | 43 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 8 | -5 | 0 | 9-1 | 3-0 | |
45 | Xavier | BE | 6.22 | 18-13 | 41 | 42 | 60 | 46 | 61 | -4 | 5 | -3 | 9 | -2 | 1 | 9-2 | 4-0 | |
46 | Loyola Chicago | MVC | 6.13 | 24-7 | 23 | 36 | 24 | 25 | 50 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 16-1 | 9-0 | |
47 | SMU | AAC | 6.00 | 23-8 | 44 | 40 | 54 | 44 | 45 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 17-2 | 7-1 | |
48 | South Dakota St. | Sum | 4.89 | 28-4 | 65 | 75 | 71 | 58 | 41 | 21 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 26-2 | 13-1 | |
49 | Chattanooga | SC | 4.28 | 25-7 | 64 | 85 | 72 | 63 | 58 | 13 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 21-5 | 10-3 | |
50 | UAB | CUSA | 4.27 | 25-7 | 46 | 53 | 45 | 47 | 68 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 20-4 | 12-1 | |
51 | Vermont | AE | 4.19 | 27-5 | 52 | 84 | 59 | 38 | 71 | 19 | 0 | -1 | 1 | -1 | 4 | 26-3 | 19-1 | |
52 | Richmond | A10 | 3.99 | 22-12 | 82 | 76 | 85 | 74 | 73 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 6 | -5 | 5 | 16-1 | 6-1 | |
53 | New Mexico St. | WAC | 3.55 | 23-6 | 79 | 89 | 80 | 117 | 69 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 17-4 | 8-2 | |
54 | Norfolk St. | MEAC | 2.01 | 21-6 | 156 | 198 | 168 | 133 | 118 | 13 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -2 | -1 | 21-4 | 19-3 | |
55 | Colgate | Pat | 2.00 | 22-11 | 128 | 133 | 119 | 109 | 153 | 17 | 0 | -2 | 1 | -1 | -6 | 21-9 | 20-3 | |
56 | Longwood | BSth | 2.00 | 22-6 | 126 | 165 | 144 | 131 | 104 | 17 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 22-4 | 18-2 | |
57 | Montana St. | Bsky | 2.00 | 25-7 | 120 | 141 | 125 | 160 | 111 | 15 | 0 | -2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 25-5 | 20-2 | |
58 | Delaware | CAA | 2.00 | 21-12 | 137 | 147 | 145 | 151 | 136 | 5 | 0 | -2 | 1 | -5 | -1 | 20-6 | 12-2 | |
59 | Jacksonville St. | Asun | 2.00 | 19-10 | 142 | 149 | 146 | 126 | 140 | 10 | 0 | -2 | 1 | -2 | -1 | 18-7 | 15-5 | |
60 | Saint Peter's | MAAC | 1.96 | 18-11 | 124 | 139 | 118 | 112 | 126 | 11 | 0 | -3 | 0 | -4 | 0 | 18-7 | 11-4 | |
61 | Akron | MAC | 1.95 | 22-9 | 127 | 132 | 131 | 101 | 113 | 11 | 0 | -2 | 2 | -1 | -1 | 20-6 | 16-2 | |
62 | Cal St. Fullerton | BW | 1.26 | 19-10 | 153 | 159 | 148 | 174 | 148 | 10 | 0 | -2 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 18-7 | 11-4 | |
63 | Georgia St. | SB | 1.02 | 15-10 | 159 | 142 | 151 | 137 | 138 | 7 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -2 | -1 | 15-8 | 8-2 | |
64 | Texas Southern | SWAC | 1.02 | 18-12 | 197 | 214 | 188 | 176 | 183 | 11 | 1 | -1 | 1 | -4 | -6 | 17-7 | 17-5 | |
65 | Yale | Ivy | 1.00 | 17-11 | 147 | 136 | 149 | 159 | 139 | 9 | 0 | -4 | 1 | -4 | -5 | 16-6 | 12-1 | |
66 | Bryant | NEC | 1.00 | 21-9 | 200 | 202 | 183 | 170 | 127 | 16 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -4 | -3 | 21-5 | 18-3 | |
67 | Wright St. | Horz | 1.00 | 20-13 | 191 | 179 | 182 | 163 | 196 | 11 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 20-12 | 15-7 | |
68 | Texas A&M Corpus Chris | Slnd | 1.00 | 19-11 | 241 | 259 | 243 | 238 | 206 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | -3 | -4 | 19-8 | 18-6 |
Notes:
Thanks to Jerry Palm for past RPI data and Ken Pomeroy for game data.