Selection Sunday 2024 is here!

At-Large Selection

The 2024 NCAA Division I Mens Basketball Championship tournament includes 68 teams. Of these, 32 qualify automatically by winning their conference. The other 36 are selected by the committee. The committee's first step is to "select the 36 best teams to fill the at-large berths." Through a series of votes, the committee selects the best teams that do not win the automatic berth from their conference.

The Crashing the Dance at-large selection model attempts to predict which teams the committee will select by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's at-large selection decisions about those teams. The model generates a selection confidence (from 0% to 100%) for each team that essentially predicts how likely the committee is, based on their past behavior, to select that team for an at-large berth. Ranking all of the teams by their selection confidence and excluding the 32 automatic qualifiers gives us the 36 at-large selections. For convenience, we (roughly) separate the teams into three groups: those that are looking good, those that should not get comfy, and those that must win their conference.

See the selection notes for more information.

Looking good

These teams (listed by conference) should be in the field regardless of whether they are the automatic qualifier from their conference. Some of these teams will likely win their conference (the current conference leader is marked with type Q), but the model gives each of these teams essentially a 100% chance of at-large selection (projected at-large selections are marked with type L) if today were Selection Sunday. (Hint - move the mouse over the data for more information.)

Rank Conf Sparklines Q1 Q12 Q123 Q34 Q4
Conf Type W-L NET Pom. BPI SOR +/- W +/- W +/- +/-
Dayton A10 L 24-7 23 33 34 25 9 3 -1 8 1 10 16-0 7-0
Clemson ACC L 21-11 35 35 27 39 1 5 0 10 0 5 11-1 5-0
Duke ACC L 24-8 10 8 8 16 9 5 1 11 3 10 13-0 6-0
North Carolina ACC L 27-7 8 9 9 4 15 9 6 16 9 15 11-0 5-0
Baylor B12 L 22-10 14 14 14 8 4 10 1 14 4 7 8-0 5-0
BYU B12 L 23-10 12 16 17 20 2 6 -2 11 1 5 12-0 8-0
Houston B12 L 30-4 1 2 1 1 13 16 12 19 15 19 11-0 7-0
Iowa St. B12 Q 27-7 6 5 7 5 11 10 4 16 9 11 11-0 9-0
Kansas B12 L 21-10 20 22 20 11 1 7 -2 13 4 7 8-1 4-0
TCU B12 L 21-12 42 32 26 29 0 5 -6 8 -4 1 13-0 8-0
Texas B12 L 20-12 30 28 22 31 -1 5 -4 8 -3 1 12-1 7-0
Texas Tech B12 L 23-10 28 25 23 17 4 6 -3 10 0 6 13-0 7-0
Connecticut BE Q 31-3 2 1 2 3 19 13 10 21 18 19 10-0 9-0
Creighton BE L 23-9 11 11 10 14 7 8 3 15 6 7 8-0 7-0
Marquette BE L 25-9 13 12 13 6 9 9 1 15 6 10 10-0 6-0
Illinois B10 Q 25-8 15 10 12 10 10 7 1 13 6 12 12-1 5-0
Nebraska B10 L 23-10 33 29 37 22 4 4 -3 9 -1 6 14-0 7-0
Purdue B10 L 29-4 3 3 3 2 14 12 8 20 16 22 9-0 3-0
Wisconsin B10 L 22-12 18 17 19 21 5 5 -3 14 2 6 8-0 4-0
Boise St. MWC L 20-10 27 39 47 56 7 6 1 9 0 2 11-1 8-0
Nevada MWC L 25-7 34 36 54 35 7 6 0 8 2 9 17-1 9-0
San Diego St. MWC L 22-10 21 21 35 26 5 4 -5 10 0 6 12-0 6-0
Utah St. MWC L 25-6 38 48 68 24 10 4 -1 8 2 9 17-0 10-0
Arizona P12 L 25-8 4 6 5 13 10 8 5 15 8 15 10-1 2-0
Colorado P12 L 24-10 25 27 43 30 7 4 -1 10 0 7 14-0 7-0
Washington St. P12 L 24-9 44 42 42 37 8 6 2 9 1 7 15-1 8-0
Alabama SEC L 21-11 9 13 11 15 7 4 -6 11 0 7 10-0 3-0
Auburn SEC Q 27-7 5 4 4 12 10 3 -4 13 6 15 14-0 5-0
Florida SEC L 24-11 26 24 24 18 7 6 -2 10 0 8 14-1 5-0
Kentucky SEC L 23-9 19 18 21 19 7 6 -1 8 0 7 15-1 7-0
South Carolina SEC L 26-7 51 49 58 9 8 6 1 11 6 10 15-2 9-0
Tennessee SEC L 24-8 7 7 6 7 9 8 1 13 5 11 11-0 5-0
Gonzaga WCC L 24-7 17 15 16 23 12 3 -3 7 0 5 17-0 12-0
Saint Mary's WCC Q 25-7 16 20 15 48 16 5 2 8 3 6 17-2 12-0

Don't get comfortable

These teams (ordered by at-large selection confidence or chance) still have some work to do. Some would be on the good side of the bubble if today were Selection Sunday, but there are only 36 at-large berths available and things can change quickly. Again, some of these will earn automatic qualification from their conference, but each has one or more holes in their profile. As a result, the model gives each less than a 100% chance of at-large selection.

Rank Conf Sparklines Q1 Q12 Q123 Q34 Q4
Conf Type W-L NET Pom. BPI SOR +/- W +/- W +/- +/-
Pittsburgh ACC L (30) 22-11 40 40 32 45 4 4 -2 9 0 4 13-2 7-0
Mississippi St. SEC L (31) 21-13 31 30 31 36 -1 4 -5 8 -4 3 13-1 6-1
Colorado St. MWC L (32) 22-10 36 38 71 54 3 6 -1 9 0 6 13-1 6-0
New Mexico MWC Q 25-9 22 23 44 59 6 5 -1 8 1 7 17-2 10-1
St. John's BE L (33) 20-13 32 26 25 46 2 4 -6 10 -2 0 10-1 7-0
Texas A&M SEC L (34) 20-14 45 43 36 40 1 7 0 13 3 1 7-4 5-0
Florida Atlantic AAC L (35) 25-8 39 41 33 28 10 2 0 10 5 12 15-3 7-2
Drake MVC Q 27-6 47 51 56 43 15 4 3 7 3 10 20-2 11-0
Northwestern B10 L (36) 21-11 53 46 39 34 3 4 -3 9 -1 4 12-1 7-1
Oklahoma B12 L 20-12 46 44 38 32 -3 4 -8 9 -3 0 11-0 8-0
Michigan St. B10 L 19-14 24 19 18 49 0 3 -6 9 -5 1 10-0 4-0
Virginia ACC L 23-10 54 68 55 33 6 2 -5 10 0 7 13-0 6-0
Oregon P12 Q 23-11 59 55 64 52 7 4 -2 9 -1 6 14-1 6-0
Providence BE L 21-13 57 54 48 44 1 6 -3 9 -4 -3 12-0 11-0
Seton Hall BE L 20-12 67 62 69 41 5 5 -3 9 -2 -1 11-1 9-0
Wake Forest ACC L 20-13 43 31 29 64 2 2 -6 9 -3 1 11-1 6-0
Kansas St. B12 L 19-14 71 69 59 47 -2 5 -3 9 -4 0 10-1 5-0
Ohio St. B10 L 20-13 49 47 40 58 -2 3 -4 6 -6 2 14-1 5-0
Duquesne A10 Q 23-11 83 90 95 79 5 2 -1 8 0 2 15-3 10-0
Syracuse ACC L 19-12 84 87 104 50 1 3 -4 7 -4 3 12-1 4-0
Princeton Ivy L 22-4 55 66 49 27 9 0 0 2 -1 9 20-1 9-0
Cincinnati B12 L 20-14 37 37 30 60 -3 4 -7 7 -5 -3 13-2 9-0
Utah P12 L 19-14 48 50 52 70 -2 4 -5 8 -4 0 11-2 5-0
James Madison SB Q 30-3 52 59 46 38 15 1 0 1 -1 5 29-1 22-0
N.C. State ACC Q 22-14 63 58 60 63 3 3 -5 9 -4 -1 13-1 9-0
Indiana St. MVC L 27-6 29 45 41 42 15 1 -3 5 0 10 22-1 12-1
Mississippi SEC L 20-12 90 86 93 55 -5 3 -5 6 -6 2 14-0 6-0
UNLV MWC L 17-12 76 72 67 88 5 5 0 6 -3 3 11-3 5-3
Villanova BE L 18-15 41 34 28 66 0 4 -7 9 -3 -3 9-3 6-0
Richmond A10 L 23-9 73 83 77 68 11 1 -2 6 -1 6 17-2 8-0
Grand Canyon WAC Q 28-4 50 53 61 53 16 1 1 3 1 10 25-2 14-0
Memphis AAC L 22-10 75 74 75 67 3 2 -1 6 0 8 16-4 5-1
Iowa B10 L 18-14 62 52 51 61 -1 3 -6 8 -4 -2 10-2 6-0
Indiana B10 L 19-14 98 93 102 51 0 3 -6 9 -4 -1 10-1 6-0
Appalachian St. SB L 25-6 72 80 72 76 14 2 2 3 3 5 22-6 15-1

Must win conference

These teams currently have no shot at being selected at-large, so they need to win their conference. Each is the current leader of its conference, but only those in bold have clinched an automatic bid.

Rank Conf Sparklines Q1 Q12 Q123 Q34 Q4
Conf Type W-L NET Pom. BPI SOR +/- W +/- W +/- +/-
UAB AAC Q 21-11 105 106 121 86 8 0 -4 7 0 6 14-4 6-2
Vermont AE Q 26-6 102 104 85 71 17 0 -2 2 0 6 24-4 15-1
Stetson Asun Q 19-12 209 218 174 147 9 1 -1 1 -3 -2 18-8 17-8
Montana St. Bsky Q 15-16 208 213 281 277 3 0 -1 1 -2 -4 14-13 10-7
Longwood BSth Q 18-13 162 157 140 170 -1 0 -1 1 -2 -2 17-10 13-6
Long Beach St. BW Q 19-14 170 163 172 165 3 0 -1 3 0 2 16-11 9-6
Charleston CAA Q 26-7 97 98 98 75 15 0 -1 1 -2 5 25-4 14-0
Western Kentucky CUSA Q 19-11 136 132 160 145 3 0 0 1 1 0 18-11 12-4
Oakland Horz Q 23-11 126 137 130 105 13 1 -4 2 -3 -2 21-6 14-0
Yale Ivy Q 20-9 81 81 65 87 9 0 -3 3 -2 6 17-4 7-2
Saint Peter's MAAC Q 18-13 189 187 202 185 7 0 -1 0 -3 -6 18-10 15-4
Howard MEAC Q 16-16 273 274 265 248 7 0 -1 0 -4 -8 16-12 15-7
Akron MAC Q 22-10 108 116 106 111 11 0 -3 2 -4 0 20-4 14-2
Wagner NEC Q 14-15 290 293 273 269 1 0 -2 0 -2 -2 14-13 11-10
Morehead St. OVC Q 22-8 106 111 103 115 13 0 -2 0 -4 -3 22-4 19-2
Colgate Pat Q 24-9 125 145 111 117 17 0 -2 1 -4 -3 23-4 21-3
Samford SC Q 27-5 74 82 97 72 15 0 -2 2 0 7 25-3 15-0
McNeese St. Slnd Q 26-3 56 60 53 57 18 1 1 3 1 5 23-1 19-1
South Dakota St. Sum Q 19-12 135 134 152 157 11 0 -1 0 -3 0 19-9 12-5
Grambling St. SWAC Q 17-14 279 267 299 209 13 0 -6 0 -6 -8 17-8 17-6

    Notes:

  • This list reflects the latest estimate of the 36 teams that would be selected for at-large berths in the 2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Championship, based on the past behavior of the selection committee. Q indicates automatic qualifiers and L signifies at-large selections.
  • The following teams are ineligible for the tournament: Bellarmine, Le Moyne, Lindenwood, Queens, Southern Indiana, St. Thomas, Stonehill, Tarleton St., Texas A&M Commerce, UC San Diego, Utah Tech
  • The selections are estimated as if the season ended today. No effort is made to predict future games.
  • Shaded teams would be in the field if the season ended today. Bold teams have clinched berths.
  • The order should not be interpreted as the seeding order. It is only meant to predict whether teams would be at-large selections, based on how the committee has treated similar teams in the past.
  • Where automatic bids are still in play, the current conference leader is used. This is either the team with the best Sagarin rating (if the regular season has not ended) or the highest remaining seed in the conference tournament.
  • We only consider the top 105 RPI/NET teams for at-large selection. The lowest-ranked RPI/NET team to receive an at-large bid was #74 New Mexico in 1999 (courtesy CollegeRPI.com).