Crashing the Dance BACKUP

At-Large Selection

The NCAA Division I Mens Basketball Championship tournament includes 68 teams. Of these, 31 qualify automatically by winning their conference. The other 37 are selected by the committee. The committee's first step is to "select the 37 best teams to fill the at-large berths." Through a series of votes, the committee selects the best teams that do not win the automatic berth from their conference.

The Crashing the Dance at-large selection model attempts to predict which teams the committee will select by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's at-large selection decisions about those teams. The model generates a selection confidence (from 0% to 100%) for each team that essentially predicts how likely the committee is, based on their past behavior, to select that team for an at-large berth. Ranking all of the teams by their selection confidence and excluding the 31 automatic qualifiers gives us the 37 at-large selections. For convenience, we (roughly) separate the teams into three groups: those that are looking good, those that should not get comfy, and those that must win their conference.

See the selection notes for more information.

Looking good

These teams (listed by conference) should be in the field regardless of whether they are the automatic qualifier from their conference. Some of these teams will likely win their conference (the current conference leader is marked with type Q), but the model gives each of these teams essentially a 100% chance of at-large selection (projected at-large selections are marked with type L) if today were Selection Sunday. (Hint - move the mouse over the data for more information.)

 RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
SchoolConf.TypeW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
ButlerA10L24-747282139610450921115-06-0
Saint LouisA10Q24-61916251310523531171013-28-0
VCUA10L24-72522272783233-3103914-08-0
DukeACCL27-44219101510814102113-02-0
Miami-FloridaACCQ24-6161041012114641391511-23-0
North CarolinaACCL21-91727191463612-580813-14-0
IndianaB10Q26-5236610137831271614-05-0
MichiganB10L25-610813197153831161414-15-0
Michigan StB10L23-797938223811141112-05-0
MinnesotaB10L20-12323376-3335-312268-22-0
Ohio StateB10L23-77914585036-11031113-05-0
WisconsinB10L21-101323421669536-1112510-16-0
 RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
SchoolConf.TypeW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
KansasB12Q27-566101711761181391514-18-1
Kansas StB12L25-622121812114125-171918-010-0
Oklahoma StB12L24-71515222193825093815-19-0
GeorgetownBEQ25-5858211314961391412-16-0
LouisvilleBEL27-514381163951381814-04-0
MarquetteBEL23-821131249442711031013-15-0
Notre DameBEL25-82326352365626191916-08-0
SyracuseBEL25-81220151561915-21131214-05-0
MemphisCUSAQ28-42917167175302-1951519-09-0
CreightonMVCQ27-71824243011210301161516-25-0
Colorado StMWCL23-73529172072013-31151212-14-0
New MexicoMWCQ27-524142111538517122110-01-0
San Diego StMWCL20-92733283133425-28-1712-04-0
UNLVMWCL23-8383523255242611371010-25-0
 RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
SchoolConf.TypeW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
ArizonaP12L25-620181129722621271613-13-0
UCLAP12Q24-8392526229462411271412-32-0
FloridaSECQ24-63117181041511261212-06-0
GonzagaWCCQ30-25151118142641081820-010-0

Don't get comfortable

These teams (ordered by at-large selection confidence or chance) still have some work to do. Some would be on the good side of the bubble if today were Selection Sunday, but there are only 37 at-large berths available and things can change quickly. Again, some of these will earn automatic qualification from their conference, but each has one or more holes in their profile. As a result, the model gives each less than a 100% chance of at-large selection.

 RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
SchoolConf.TypeW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
PittsburghBEL (20)24-81119442655524-392715-19-0
MissouriSECL (21)23-914323136525140101413-010-0
TempleA10L (22)23-85136386332411051013-36-1
North Carolina StACCL (23)23-926293552323-26-21017-14-0
IllinoisB10L (24)21-11433764-1946-290512-25-0
Wichita StMVCL (25)26-84235386378131831118-37-0
ColoradoP12L (26)21-1150395621224090812-22-0
Iowa StateB12L (27)22-1033433255124-380514-28-1
BelmontOVCQ24-649302028131801-164918-49-0
OregonP12L (28)24-8544937765230921015-16-0
CincinnatiBEL (29)22-1137474903515-49-2413-07-0
 RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
SchoolConf.TypeW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
Boise StMWCL (30)19-1057454813734-380511-24-0
St. Mary'sWCCL (31)26-636213024124511-2401122-29-0
VirginiaACCL (32)21-10306742415624285613-76-1
VillanovaBEL (33)19-1340513429445-38-3211-25-1
OklahomaB12L (34)20-1144404642923-490511-25-1
La SalleA10L (35)21-852414064012-26-1815-15-0
KentuckySECL (36)21-102835484166812-27-2214-19-0
CaliforniaP12L (37)20-11563453435811506-4514-14-0
TennesseeSECL20-1145555556114090111-28-0
MississippiSECL23-841565067501-371616-211-2
IowaB10L21-1134706119604-46-3315-27-0
Middle Tenn StSBL28-553313244181700-21-21127-212-0
 RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
SchoolConf.TypeW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
Southern MissCUSAL22-861343393000-44-2818-27-1
BaylorB12L17-14316574-17023-85-6-412-37-0
MassachusettsA10L20-1075598234201-580412-26-0
AlabamaSECL19-11606245611901-370312-46-1
AkronMACQ23-6655262124801-141619-313-2
Stephen F. AustinSlndQ22-386356196142701120620-114-1
BucknellPatQ27-5705067132801021525-417-0
Louisiana TechWACQ25-697545213580113-1722-214-2
New Mexico StWACL21-10825751118401-24-2017-411-0
ValparaisoHorzQ25-7645853127400-22-2723-312-1
DenverWACL21-95866471316200-23-5218-111-1
Saint Joseph'sA10L18-1269789816602-37-2-211-38-0
 RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
SchoolConf.TypeW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
StanfordP12L18-14487786-17301-96-6012-24-0
MarylandACCL21-11557989-17112-33-6418-26-0

Must win conference

These teams currently have no shot at being selected at-large, so they need to win their conference. Each is the current leader of its conference, but only those in bold have clinched an automatic bid.

 RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
SchoolConf.TypeW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
VermontAEQ21-10136126141811600-120019-812-1
Florida Gulf CoastAsunQ22-1012493124115411-21-3121-616-5
MontanaBskyQ21-613782801814800-11-4-320-118-0
LibertyBSthQ12-20259288252031200-20-4-512-1610-13
Long BeachBWQ17-12134106841115300-50-6-717-613-1
James MadisonCAAQ20-14168183137725800-10-3-120-1113-6
HarvardIvyQ18-91039111487700-31-4017-411-2
IonaMAACQ20-139997101710600-11-2419-105-2
Morgan StMEACQ16-1421523722862550000-2-716-1215-6
Long IslandNECQ20-13162179118928500-10-2-120-1111-3
Western KentuckySBQ19-15182155156416100-50-6-719-913-2
 RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
SchoolConf.TypeW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
DavidsonSCQ25-7626065198700-32-2423-317-3
South Dakota StSumQ22-9946479136911-140218-514-3
Southern USWACQ18-92071871821219100-11-2-417-616-3