Crashing the Dance

Seeding

After selecting the 36 best at-large teams to go with the 32 automatic qualifiers (i.e., conference champions), the committee's second step is to "create a 'seed list' (i.e. rank of the teams in 'true seeds' 1 through 68)." The Crashing the Dance seeding model, like the selection model, attempts to predict how the committee will rank the teams in the seed list by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's relative rankings of those teams.

Each past team is assigned a number of seed points based on their actual seed, with better seeds getting more points. (For example, a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.) The profile of each team in this year's field is compared to those from the past to predict how many seed points (i.e., the average seed) a similar team would have received. We then rank each team by the seed points to obtain our 1 to 68 ranking.

See the seeding notes for more information.

Seed lines 1 to 4RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
S-CurveSchoolConf.PtsW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
-1FloridaSEC16.0032-23111218410817152715-03-0
-2ArizonaP1216.0030-41322133411816122214-04-0
-3VillanovaBE15.0928-44856131014115122213-12-0
-4Wichita StMVC15.0033-013241021203311112322-010-0
^5MichiganB1015.0025-887113137751051481311-24-0
^6Iowa StateB1214.9926-712107167931151581311-06-0
^7VirginiaACC14.9228-6758417552511371415-08-0
^8Michigan StB1014.7926-891318149355711021516-03-0
v9KansasB1214.7524-959351056135178127-03-0
v10WisconsinB1014.5226-710126266147216111810-21-0
v11DukeACC14.5026-8669119144611261214-26-0
v12CreightonBE14.3526-7111410911192621471512-04-0
^13LouisvilleAAC13.8329-52420121539450941420-010-0
v14SyracuseACC13.6227-51915172491127514111713-26-1
v15UCLAP1213.6026-8151589341831151615-23-1
v16Ohio StateB1012.5625-914232538362611371312-33-0
Seed lines 5 to 8RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
S-CurveSchoolConf.PtsW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
-17CincinnatiAAC12.5027-62716211912322621041117-010-0
^18VCUA1012.4726-821271379311501251314-15-0
v19San Diego StMWC12.3827-4231114151528330631521-18-0
-20OklahomaB1212.2523-926212422526182113912-15-0
-21North CarolinaACC12.2223-928172720737450115912-35-0
v22ConnecticutAAC12.1126-82420222571737292917-19-0
-23Saint LouisA1011.8425-637192623933251941416-15-0
v24KentuckySEC11.8324-101824162171314-2145910-15-0
^25New MexicoMWC11.5727-6311812181522330721620-15-0
-26GonzagaWCC11.4227-622251913154402-21061517-26-0
v27BaylorB1211.2822-11292631412123101122610-15-0
-28MassachusettsA109.4324-849342355472731361211-14-0
-29OregonP129.3223-9302928542424-292914-25-0
^30MemphisAAC9.1222-94022375051834-36-2516-18-0
^31TexasB129.0523-103829362745827-2123611-17-0
v32George WashingtonA109.0224-84839303063034-2113913-07-0
Seed lines 9 to 12RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
S-CurveSchoolConf.PtsW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
^33BYUWCC8.4522-1143293192913-381814-43-0
^34PittsburghACC8.3725-92037393354102-57-2918-07-0
v35StanfordP128.3321-1232414435025-47-3314-26-0
v36Oklahoma StB128.2821-1216394672-22015-68-3313-16-0
^37Saint Joseph'sA108.2124-9593417985361102914-16-0
v38Arizona StP128.2121-1135443616614-380413-36-0
-39TennesseeSEC8.0820-1225424045912-47-2413-34-0
-40Kansas StB128.0720-123939503718347-19-1311-26-1
v41ColoradoP128.0523-1155324231515-38-2715-15-0
v42XavierBE7.6921-1244524727324-290612-33-0
^43ProvidenceBE7.6423-1146402957022-38-2715-15-0
v44IowaB107.6020-1217336462-16324-57-3113-27-0
v45DaytonA107.3523-1057434944724-2103813-35-0
v46NebraskaB107.1819-125436473538834-36-3313-34-0
v47SMUAAC7.0823-93428534657434-14-2519-310-1
^48HarvardIvy5.2125-436344563124600-220823-214-1
Seed lines 13 to 16RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
S-CurveSchoolConf.PtsW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
^49North Dakota StSum4.9122-6653553121600-22-1720-39-0
^50ManhattanMAAC4.1025-7756067136500-164819-512-2
^51Western MichiganMAC4.0022-912367341218802-183214-411-0
New52TulsaCUSA3.8821-127270281319201-26-1215-59-2
v53New Mexico StWAC3.7025-9797296114211-23-1222-517-3
-54Stephen F. AustinSlnd3.6329-282325152206400-10-11029-118-1
^55DelawareCAA2.8925-91066658159600-30-5-125-418-1
^56MercerAsun2.5423-8938194135600-21-2222-514-1
^57NCCUMEAC2.5226-58699128186700-21-2025-223-2
New58UL LafayetteSB2.0220-111228811974500-22-3218-610-3
-59Eastern KentuckyOVC2.0022-91439710499100-22-2120-515-3
-60AmericanPat1.9820-12117119821124200-12-2-218-814-4
-61Wis-MilwaukeeHorz1.6120-13165130148211900-12-2118-911-5
^62Weber StBsky1.0317-111701511291027500-20-2-217-913-5
^63WoffordSC1.0017-12191154194910300-30-5-617-714-3
New64AlbanyAE1.0018-14193187198515800-10-1-318-1312-5
-65Coastal CarolinaBSth1.0018-12227196153926400-10-5-618-716-4
-66Mt St. Mary'sNEC1.0016-16214189163523800-30-4-316-1210-7
New67Cal PolyBW1.0011-19174207206-121800-40-5-1011-146-4
-68Texas SouthernSWAC1.0018-14253250226927800-10-2-418-1216-8

Thanks to Jerry Palm for past RPI data and Ken Pomeroy for game data.