Crashing the Dance BACKUP

Seeding (S-Curve)

After selecting the 37 best at-large teams to go with the 31 automatic qualifiers (i.e., conference champions), the committee's second step is to "create a 'seed list' (i.e. rank of the teams in 'true seeds' 1 through 68)." The Crashing the Dance seeding model, like the selection model, attempts to predict how the committee will rank the teams in the S-Curve by comparing the profiles of this year's teams to past years and examining the committee's relative rankings of those teams.

Each past team is assigned a number of seed points based on their actual seed, with better seeds getting more points. (For example, a 1 seed is worth 16 points and a 16 seed is worth 1 point.) The profile of each team in this year's field is compared to those from the past to predict how many seed points (i.e., the average seed) a similar team would have received. We then rank each team by the seed points to obtain our 1 to 68 ranking.

See the seeding notes for more information.

Seed lines 1 to 4RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
S-CurveSchoolConf.PtsW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
-1DukeACC16.0027-44219101510814102113-02-0
^2LouisvilleBE15.9127-514381163951381814-04-0
v3IndianaB1015.8026-5236610137831271614-05-0
-4GonzagaWCC15.7630-25151118142641081820-010-0
-5KansasB1215.0227-566101711761181391514-18-1
^6GeorgetownBE15.0025-5858211314961391412-16-0
v7New MexicoMWC15.0027-524142111538517122110-01-0
-8Miami-FloridaACC14.7324-6161041012114641391511-23-0
-9Michigan StB1014.5723-797938223811141112-05-0
-10FloridaSEC14.2524-63117181041511261212-06-0
-11MichiganB1014.1125-610813197153831161414-15-0
-12Ohio StateB1013.8623-77914585036-11031113-05-0
^13ArizonaP1213.3125-620181129722621271613-13-0
v14MarquetteBE13.2923-821131249442711031013-15-0
v15Saint LouisA1013.0724-61916251310523531171013-28-0
-16SyracuseBE12.6525-81220151561915-21131214-05-0
Seed lines 5 to 8RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
S-CurveSchoolConf.PtsW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
-17Oklahoma StB1212.6024-71515222193825093815-19-0
^18CreightonMVC11.9627-71824243011210301161516-25-0
v19Kansas StB1211.8925-622121812114125-171918-010-0
-20MemphisCUSA11.5028-42917167175302-1951519-09-0
^21VCUA1011.4624-72522272783233-3103914-08-0
^22UCLAP1211.2824-8392526229462411271412-32-0
v23UNLVMWC11.1023-8383523255242611371010-25-0
^24WisconsinB1011.0521-101323421669536-1112510-16-0
v25Colorado StMWC10.9723-73529172072013-31151212-14-0
^26Notre DameBE10.8525-82326352365626191916-08-0
-27North CarolinaACC10.2621-91727191463612-580813-14-0
^28ButlerA1010.1824-747282139610450921115-06-0
^29MissouriSEC10.0423-914323136525140101413-010-0
v30San Diego StMWC9.9920-92733283133425-28-1712-04-0
v31PittsburghBE9.9124-81119442655524-392715-19-0
v32North Carolina StACC9.6923-926293552323-26-21017-14-0
Seed lines 9 to 12RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
S-CurveSchoolConf.PtsW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
v33MinnesotaB108.9120-12323376-3335-312268-22-0
^34Iowa StateB128.8022-1033433255124-380514-28-1
^35TempleA108.5823-85136386332411051013-36-1
v36CincinnatiBE8.4622-1137474903515-49-2413-07-0
^37IllinoisB108.4521-11433764-1946-290512-25-0
v38ColoradoP128.3721-1150395621224090812-22-0
v39OklahomaB128.2320-1144404642923-490511-25-1
^40Wichita StMVC7.7926-84235386378131831118-37-0
v41Boise StMWC7.5919-1057454813734-380511-24-0
v42VillanovaBE7.5019-1340513429445-38-3211-25-1
v43KentuckySEC7.3421-102835484166812-27-2214-19-0
^44OregonP126.9224-8544937765230921015-16-0
v45CaliforniaP126.9220-11563453435811506-4514-14-0
v46La SalleA106.6121-852414064012-26-1815-15-0
^47St. Mary'sWCC6.4826-636213024124511-2401122-29-0
v48BelmontOVC6.3324-649302028131801-164918-49-0
Seed lines 13 to 16RankConfN/CSparkline1-251-501-1001-200101+201+
S-CurveSchoolConf.PtsW-LSag.PollRPIRPI+/-RPIWW+/-W+/-+/- 
-49VirginiaACC5.8221-10306742415624285613-76-1
-50AkronMAC4.4623-6655262124801-141619-313-2
^51Stephen F. AustinSlnd4.1622-386356196142701120620-114-1
^52BucknellPat3.9327-5705067132801021525-417-0
^53South Dakota StSum3.7722-9946479136911-140218-514-3
v54Louisiana TechWAC3.6725-697545213580113-1722-214-2
-55ValparaisoHorz3.6225-7645853127400-22-2723-312-1
-56DavidsonSC3.4225-7626065198700-32-2423-317-3
^57Florida Gulf CoastAsun2.6022-1012493124115411-21-3121-616-5
v58HarvardIvy2.3118-91039111487700-31-4017-411-2
^59MontanaBsky2.2121-613782801814800-11-4-320-118-0
v60IonaMAAC2.1620-139997101710600-11-2419-105-2
-61VermontAE2.0021-10136126141811600-120019-812-1
-62Long BeachBW1.1617-12134106841115300-50-6-717-613-1
-63Long IslandNEC1.0020-13162179118928500-10-2-120-1111-3
-64James MadisonCAA1.0020-14168183137725800-10-3-120-1113-6
-65Western KentuckySB1.0019-15182155156416100-50-6-719-913-2
-66Southern USWAC0.9818-92071871821219100-11-2-417-616-3
New67Morgan StMEAC0.9616-1421523722862550000-2-716-1215-6
-68LibertyBSth0.0012-20259288252031200-20-4-512-1610-13

Thanks to Jerry Palm for past RPI data and Ken Pomeroy for game data.